Showers and Thunderstorms, some severe to occur this evening into Thursday Morning.

Southern Manitoba will be impacted by a incoming northward moving warm front that will put the city of Winnipeg and much of the Red River Valley at risk of Thunderstorms some severe through the Red River Valley and into NW Ontario. As MUCAPES exceed 1,000 J/Kg, and Lifted Indicies reach -5 to -7. Severe thunderstorm occurence is not out of the question, with these thunderstorms that occur overnight. Tornado potential is there albeit a slight risk as shear Helicity readings are about 600 to 700,, around  around 10pm-4am potential in the Red River Valley is there for Violent Tornadoes. As far everything else is concerned this system will have a potential threat for very heavy amounts of rainfall and wind gusts over 90km/h at times. Intense lightning will also accompany these thunderstorms as well. Full discussion from environment Canada below,. 

083   

FOCN45 CWWG 121900  

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER DISCUSSION ISSUED BY THE PRAIRIE AND ARCTIC STORM  

PREDICTION CENTRE OF ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 2:00 PM CDT WEDNESDAY  

SEPTEMBER 12 2018.  

EASTERN PRAIRIES...JET SUPPORTED CONVECTION SOUTHWESTERN SK TODAY  

WITH 10 TO 20 MM POSSIBLE AND RISK OF THUNDER. MID LEVEL INSTABILITY  

EXTENDS INTO SOUTHERN MB BUT WHETHER OR NOT THIS BECOMES REALIZED IN  

A BIG WAY IS QUESTIONABLE TODAY. TONIGHT, HOWEVER, A WARM FRONT  

REBOUNDING THRU THE DAKOTAS WITH ASSOCIATED SOUTHERLY LLJ SUGGESTS  

POTENTIALLY SEVERE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING THIS EVENING  

ALONG A LINE BRANDON-VICTORIA BEACH WITH THE LINE TRANSLATING  

EASTWARD THRU THE NIGHT. TRAINING CONVECTIVE CELLS COULD GIVE OVER  

50 MM OF RAIN, BUT LOCALLY STRONG GUSTS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AS THE  

• LINE BECOMES PROGRESSIVE TOWARDS THUSDAY MORNING.  
  

Severe weather likely for the night ahead..

Update for Southern Manitoba

Area(s): Southern and Central

 

Timing: Monday evening and overnight

Threats: 3-5 cm hail and wind gusts 100-120 km/h over the southeast, 2-3 cm hail, 90-100 km/h wind gusts over south central; locally heavy downpours, gusty winds and pea sized hail elsewhere

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the evening hours along a trough of low pressure over Western Manitoba and push eastwards across Central and Southern Manitoba during the late evening and overnight hours. Thunderstorms will initially have the potential to produce 3-5 cm hail and 100-120 km/h wind gusts over southwestern areas. A moderate threat of severe thunderstorms will continue to exist as these thunderstorms push eastward into the Interlake and Red River Valley. The thunderstorms are expected to weaken overnight as they move into southeastern areas. Elsewhere, non-severe thunderstorms will be possible giving locally heavy downpours, gusty winds and small hail.