Warmer Weather Set To Return To Southern Manitoba

After a prolonged period unexpected cool temperatures and near to below normal temperatures, warmer weather is now on the way for many parts of Southern Manitoba.

 

Picture taken from A Weather Moment, note the blue squiggle the advancing upper level ridge.

 

The trough that has remained parked over our province the past week will finally be pushing off to Northwest Ontario, allowing the building upper level ridge currently over British Columbia to spread east into Southern Manitoba bringing with it some milder Pacific Air.

 

With the incoming upper level ridge the chances for precipitation will be slim to nothing over the next few days in the province, leaving conditions in the same way they have been "dry". We will see our temperatures climb into the high teens and possibly above the 20 degree mark in Western Manitoba, though conditions will get a touch cooler as you head east into the Red River Valley and Eastern Manitoba where most temperatures will be in the mid to high teens.

 

Things will be even warmer for Thursday as a warm front moves through, so temperatures will climb towards the low twenties in many regions. The real heat comes on Friday and the weekend when we will see temperatures in the high 20's in Western Manitoba, and the mid twenties in the RRV and East Manitoba. The warm weather will continue right into next week, giving us a chance to finish off the month in a warm pattern.

 

 

Fall Weather To Continue

Fall Has Begun and seasonal to above seasonal weather will be the case for the week ahead, bringing us a taste to the fall season.

High Pressure will build over our area allowing for dry weather to continue

Surface high Pressure will be over our region for this week as it slides southwards, bringing cool to warm and dry weather for the period.

 For tonight most temperatures will reach the low single digits to below zero, in southern regions of the province. This will make things a touch frosty as we experience perfect freeze conditions before sunrise. However things will warm up for the day tomorrow with daytime temperatures reaching the low to mid teens, before the warmup begins by the middle of the week and persists into the weekend.

During the middle to second half of the week most temperatures will warm into the high teens and maybe the low to mid 20's as we enter the weekend and next week. 

Why such warm weather forecast? Well it will be all to do with an upper level ridge that will move over our area at the end of the week shifting our winds to the south, bringing warmer air that has been sitting in the states into our region. This will give us the chance to see above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation to finish off the month. WhooHoo! Summer Weather Is Returning!

Frosty Fall Like Start To The Week

Southern Manitoba will be in for a cold, chilly perhaps even a frosty couple of days to start our week. We will be welcomed by cool daytime highs and sub zero nighttime lows which will make for a overall fall like feel.

The night ahead is looking like it could be a cold one with most temperatures cooling from 6C in Western Manitoba to about 2C and 0C in the RRV and Eastern Manitoba. The cold Temperatures are making the Regions west of The Red River Valley including areas of the Red River Valley and Eastern Manitoba susceptible to frost. Those wondering why Western Manitoba will be warmer, it is a result of the warmer air that is moving in from the West with the ridge that is in place in Alberta.

Daytime highs will be warmer tomorrow than they were on Monday with most readings getting close to 20C in Western Manitoba, but a little cooler as you go east into the Red River Valley and Eastern Manitoba where temperatures will be stuck in the teens. Definitely warmer than the 10C that was experienced in Winnipeg Monday. Another cold front will sweep through overnight Tuesday into the day Wednesday ushering in another cool arctic airmass to end our week. For Those long range lovers Wednesday through Friday will be cold with temperatures stuck in the teens. Precipitation wise, it will stay mainly dry with no significant chances of precipitation this week, though we may still see some measureable rain later in the week as a few strong impulses rotate through the region.  




































At this point the longe range forecast looks fairly status quo. We will see some temperature fluctuations, making our temperatures feel near normal and average. It will defintely feel fall like with freezing overnight lows.

Half Order of 30C With A Touch Of Below Normal Weather

 We will see fairly usual weather for this time of year across Southern Manitoba with a big exception being tomorrow. Why? Well Saturday will hold southerly winds as another upper level ridge moves through our province, that will provide temperatures to rise into the high 20's or even low 30's on Saturday Afternoon. This heat may be the last of the year, all should enjoy!

The upper ridge has already got going over our area, however this ridge should shift east throughout the day tomorrow letting our temperatures rise into the mid to high 20's.

For the night ahead clear conditions will be in place with light winds out of the south allowing for our temperatures to remain mild and stay around a range where frost will be unlikely. All temperatures will be from the 5 to 9C range in Southern Manitoba, the coolest places will likely be in the parklands out by Dauphin and Wasagaming where you have the highest terrain (which allows for more cooling in those regions).

A look at temperatures in Southern Manitoba Tomorrow afternoon with the ridge in place, look at the corresponding temperature legend for your area and add on 13C to figure out the actual temps at the surface.

Through the day Saturday the upper level ridge I was talking about will move across the province, bringing with it temperatures in the 12C range in SE MB to 20C in SW MB. Expect surface temperatures to peak from 25C to 32C in the southern part of the province. All of this will be ushered in by the southerly winds, if we had downsloping winds from the Southwest then our temperatures would be a lot higher tomorrow. (See the picture on the top for greater detail)

A powerful cold front will slide through Southern Manitoba tomorrow evening dropping our temperatures down into the mid to high teens for Sunday, get out there and enjoy it while you can!

However, a powerful cold front will be over the central part of the province on the day Saturday before it drives southwards through Southern Manitoba during the evening (above). This will allow for shower chances and maybe the odd thunderstorm before cooler Arctic air ushers in from the North. Our 850 MB Temperatures will drop to 0C for Sunday which will most likely hold our daytime temperatures to the mid to high teens, under cloudy skies with some possible showers off of the lakes. The cooler weather continue into the week when our 850 MB Temps could drop down to the minus single digits allowing for our temperatures to only reach the low teens during the day, and overnight lows in the mid to low single digits with some places reaching the minuses (yes that cold!). Rain and cloudcover will be possible during the week with the cooler weather. Feel Free to follow me on Twitter for the rest of the weekend for weather updates @SouthMBWeather.

Cooling Off For The Rest Of The Week

After our one day heatwave and a mild night that occurred today things will cool off for the rest of the week and fall like weather will return.

Cooler Weather will take hold for the rest of the week after the cold front slides through at around 12Z or 7am tomorrow morning in South MB.

A cold front is expected to sweep through southern Manitoba tomorrow morning  cooling our weather for the rest of the week and will limit our daytime high temperatures to only around 20 degrees in the afternoon through the day tomorrow. It will feel more seasonable out there, for sure. Temperatures will gradually decrease as the week goes on with very little warmups, leaving daytime high's typical for september right in and around the high teens to low twenties. No significant chances for rain exist in the near future with only a slight chance for a few showers tomorrow morning with the passage of the front. I only will mention showers for tomorrow as the last time a cold front passed through we experienced rain that never was picked up by any models. It is to be expected with any front, you can even have thunderstorms when the air is dry with a frontal passage. 


From this point on most long range weather models really aren't painting a clear picture of how September will continue temperature wise. Overall it looks like we will go onto experience normal weather conditions with a few flip flops (ups and downs) here and ther. Another interesting long range weather feature to watch is the possible development of El Nino conditions in the pacific Ocean (Western Ocean off the Coast of BC). Most of the long term forecasts are calling for the development of weak to moderate El Nino Conditions in the central Pacific Ocean for this upcoming fall and winter. El Nino Events tend to bring warmer and drier than normal weather to Manitoba. The stronger the El Nino the greater chance that we will see a warmer and drier than normal winter in our region of Southern Manitoba.


I will have a detailed post on the Situation of the El Nino at the start of our winter, to bring you the latest details.