Fall Weather To Continue

Fall Has Begun and seasonal to above seasonal weather will be the case for the week ahead, bringing us a taste to the fall season.

High Pressure will build over our area allowing for dry weather to continue

Surface high Pressure will be over our region for this week as it slides southwards, bringing cool to warm and dry weather for the period.

 For tonight most temperatures will reach the low single digits to below zero, in southern regions of the province. This will make things a touch frosty as we experience perfect freeze conditions before sunrise. However things will warm up for the day tomorrow with daytime temperatures reaching the low to mid teens, before the warmup begins by the middle of the week and persists into the weekend.

During the middle to second half of the week most temperatures will warm into the high teens and maybe the low to mid 20's as we enter the weekend and next week. 

Why such warm weather forecast? Well it will be all to do with an upper level ridge that will move over our area at the end of the week shifting our winds to the south, bringing warmer air that has been sitting in the states into our region. This will give us the chance to see above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation to finish off the month. WhooHoo! Summer Weather Is Returning!

Nice Weather Expected to Continue, Becoming Unsettled For The Weekend

After a rainy weekend and a glorious start to the week, it is looking like the sunny and warm trend will continue for several days ahead as a ridge of high pressure starts building into the Eastern Prairies Including Manitoba. As a result we can expect to see temperatures in the mid to high 20's during the time period. Although we will see a very slight chance for some showers and thunderstorms today as an area of small low pressure slides through the area. Another area of low pressure is forecast to move in For Friday and Saturday bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms once again.

An area of High Pressure is expected to gradually build over Manitoba in the coming days, it is not shown on the map though it is find in the big circle in Northern Manitoba.

There is a chance for a shower or thunderstorm over Southern Manitoba this afternoon as a trough moves southwards as it heads into North Western Ontario, the best chances will remain to the East through the Whiteshell regions and in SW Manitoba. Everything should organize and drift south and eastwards out of the province by evening hours.

Next on the headlines, it is looking like a fairly strong ridge of high pressure will continue to build into Northern Manitoba, and it is looking like it will strengthen to almost be at 1030 mb by tomorrow morning. The axis will be from The Red River Valley Northeast into Hudson Bay and James Bay. The system will ensure sunny and clear skies over the period of the next few days, limiting clouds only to fair weather cumulus and as well allow for a southerly flow to take place over the southern portion of the province. This would usually result in hot temperatures and high humidity but in this case it will provide less humidity and more normal temperatures. Instead of this high pressure system being created by a ridge, this is one that will be created by a trough of  cold air descending from the Arctic. The southerly flow that will develop over southern Manitoba will be a return flow of air out of the high pressure system  instead of being a warm moist flow from the Gulf of Mexic. Leaving our temperatures slow to climb as each day progresses and dewpoints only rising into the low to mid teens.

Friday Saturday will be another stormy few days as another low moves into the province,scattered thunderstorms and showers will both be possible on these days with accumulations nearing 5mm in showers and higher amounts of course in thunderstorms. Severe weather will be possible on Friday in Southern Manitoba as highlighted by The Prairie Arctic Storm Prediction Centre based in Winnipeg.

Next Week looks like it will continue to be nice with Temperatures in the high twenties along with lots of sunshine.

I could not have found out some of these detail's if it weren't for Brad from

A Weather Moment

Our Hot Week Set to End with a Bang!

(Information Provided by Brad from A Weather Moment)

Temperatures are ready to soar for the rest of the week as a heat source from the Gulf of Mexico builds into the southern portion of the province. Everyone across all of Southern Manitoba should begin to prepare for a potentially dangerous end of week powerful low pressure system that will threaten the first significant severe weather outbreak of the season.


850mb theta-e (a form of measuring temperature) chart valid for 06Z Thursday 07 June. 

The above picture with the red arrows very well depicts the advection of a warm Gulf of Mexico airmass into our region, (theta-e is basically a form of measuring temperature). A southerly flow aloft, aided by a long wave trough over British Columbia to our west and a blocking high to our East will bring us the hottest days we have experienced this year, throughout the rest of this week. Temperatures are expected to reach the 25C to 30C range through the second half of this week.       

Postion of fronts and weather at 00Z Friday

 A weak low pressure system will move through Southern Manitoba throughout Thursday night, ahead of the main upper level feature. Even though dynamics don't look to great for severe weather, a line of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon and evening hours they will intensify aqnd slowly move east-northeastwards. While tornadoes will not be likely with the storms on Thursday afternoon/evening, CAPE values near 1250 to 1750 J/kg combined with Lifted Indicies near -5 and 20 to 30 Shear should be enough for large hail according to Brad. The possible slow moving nature of the line of storms could produce a risk for heavy rainfall with as much as 30+mm falling over a short period of time. While showers will be common over the southwest portion of the province on Thursday, the chance for showers does extend eastwards through the Red River Valley in the afternoon. Most of the precipitation will fall with the thunderstorms that will develop in the evening.

Although this is still 36 hours away and things could change a lot between now and then. According to Brad "models still are having a hard degrading the blocking pattern that is in place right now ,and some are much more progressive with features and some are much slower."  If things end up more progressive than the look now, there may be a small storm threat for Thursday night.

Thunderstorm Outlook for Night 2 (00Z to 18Z June 08).

Brad says " That taking into account the various speeds, the current area that might see storms on Thursday afternoon/evening looks to be the area bounded from the US border north to Brandon, up towards Dauphin/Swan River, then eastwards across the Interlake and southwards down the eastern Red River Valley. Storms will exit through the Central/Northern Whiteshell. Friday will yet again be another warm day;debris cloud left behind from Thursday Night's convection should clear around lunch time which will hopefully allow the sunshine to warm us to the mid to high 20's. Dewpoints look to build in the afternoon pushing up to the 18C or 19C degrees making it feel quite humid. The main frontal system is set to move in on the weekend, and what a system it looks to be.


SPC Day 4-8 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

According to Brad "We’ll be under the influence of two strong shortwaves that will push copious amounts of instability over Southern Manitoba. CAPE values look to exceed 2500 J/kg and potentially be as high as 5000-5500 J/kg; this, combined with a weak cap north of the warm front and favorable shear profiles looks to point at a potent setup for severe thunderstorms with high probabilities of (extremely) large hail, strong winds, and elevated risks of tornadoes." From My perspective it looks like this setup will be similar to June 22nd and 23rd 2007 tornado event that featured Canada's first F5 Tornado in Elie and that also resulted in 6 other dangerous tornadoes in Southwestern Manitoba.

More Details will be available throughout the next couple days on Twitter and some on my blog post on this potentially serious Storm Outbreak.

Cool Stormy Weather on The Way For the Weekend

Manitoban's get ready for a wakeup call, the next few days are going to be ridiculously cold with daytime highs over 10°C below the normal and overnight lows over 5°C below the normal. The sun will make only a couple appearances over the next few days as another forecasted storm system pushes into Southern Manitoba, bringing another round of rain and a few possible strong thunderstorms to the Red River Valley, especially near the border.

The 850 MB Temps forecasted by the GFSX Model for tonight at 00Z ( 7pm), as temps will cool with the passage of a trough.

This downright cool weather has brought late-season snow to several communities in Western Manitoba including The Pas, Flin Flon and higher elevations over SW Manitoba. Areas that received snow in higher elevations were Swan River, Duck Mountain, Porcupine Provincial Forest and Riding Mountain. (Even Rob wrote out an article on the snowfall event, read up on his perspective here) Just be glad we never experienced any snow in our region.

Tonight, there is a high threat potential for frost in most of Southern Manitoba, as we see the arrival of another surface ridge and clearing skies. Areas most at risk for frost tonight appears to be in all of the southwestern portion of the province into the park lands, east into the RRV especially areas north of the transcanada highway. The threat also extends east through Winnipeg towards the Ontario border. Areas not included in the risk for frost are along the American Border. There currently is a frost warning in place for almost the whole southern section of the province view the map here.

 Tomorrow will be a transitioning day with temperatures reaching the 12 to 17C range in all of the south, with cloud streaming northwards from the Dakota's with the next system. Rain will push up towards the American Border by morning, likely staying south of the border all day tomorrow. The rain will stay south of the border until the big northward push comes on Sunday.

Showers and Storms will be likely throughout the day on Sunday in Southern Manitoba, as the system pushes North. As shown by the NWS Weather Maps.

Potential for more showers on Monday

And quite the push it will be! Rain and Isolated Thunderstorms will be going on throughout Saturday night south of the border, although the storms will likely weaken by sunrise and the rain will slowly push northwards across the Red River Valley. Most regions across Southern Manitoba should expect the showers to start fairly early on Sunday and last throughout the day, with the possibility for the formation of non-severe storms especially in the RRV during the late afternoon,evening. The rain and possible storms will taper off west to east overnight and will clear out. With another potential for showers Monday as this significant weekend system brings wraparound showers, while it leaves our province. Overall rainfall amounts in Southern Manitoba can be expected to be in between 5 and 10mm in showers,(at least 30+mm) amounts in storms. And inbetween 20 and 30 mm in western manitoba where you will be closer to the heavier rain.This really isn't the best of news for this year's teddy bear picnic, but hopefully it won't dampen their fun and spirits. 

This likely will be the last cold blast of the season, before we start experiencing some warmer May like weather, and some hot June temperatures. That is a long ways away from now, so let's have a look at the improving weather after this rainfall....  Conditions do look like they will improve through the middle of next week, with temperatures pushing back towards the 20C degree mark and some sunny conditions making an appearance. In the mean time put on some PJ's or slippers and kick back and relax as this weekend will be a stay at home weekend. Except for the storm chasers out there who may want to storm chase on Sunday here or in North Dakota if conditions follow through.

Below Normal Temperatures Return

(850 MB Temps Forecast at 18Z Today)

(NWS GF Wx Graphic for Today)

Hello and we are back in operation, after a full week of waiting. So how is our weather holding up? After enjoying the past few days with temperatures a couple of degrees above the normal, a low pressure system backing into Hudson bay will push a cold front southwards across Southern Manitoba throughout the day today. It will bring along with it cooler weather. The cold front will sweep by southern manitoba early this afternoon, with winds forecast to pick up from the North and increase towards 30 and 40 km/h. Scattered showers will develop along and ahead of the front as it pushes south through the red river valley, from the interlake. So most areas in the red river valley will have a chance of seeing some rain early this afternoon. They won't last long though, and as well cooler air will stream on the backside limiting our temps to only get to the low teens for today across the south. Skies will clear quickly tonight as an Arctic high pressure ridge builds in. This cooler weather will continue until the weekend when we see this ridge move off and slowly allow for our temperatures to rebound, although the day on Saturday still may be cool. I will let you know when we can expect a warm up in terms of temperatures.

Also in Weather News I am watching the potential for development of El Nino by the end of the month in the pacific. This would mean a potential for a hotter/more humid and wetter summer in parts of Southern Manitoba. (As Depicted to the left from NOAA). I will keep everyone updated on this as it unfolds

Back to Cold Weather!

(Left: GEM-GLB surface analysis forecast 96hr Friday Feb 10th,2012)

After a nice few days with warm temperatures across the prairies, expect a change to cooler than normal weather conditions for the beginning of this week.

A cold front is expected to swing south over the province tonight and early tomorrow morning, bringing with it a chance for some light and local blowing snow across the south part of the province. With the passage of the cold front by Monday afternoon skies will clear and winds will shift towards the north, it could become quite strong (60km/h at times), that will aid in cooling our temperatures throughout the day.Temperatures will moderate on Tuesday and Wednesday, before we see temperatures that will be colder with high windchill values for the end of this week and into the weekend with nice conditions. The arrival of a high pressure system will promote the cold temperatures, as it sits sit over the prairies for a few days. This will allow for our temperatures to fall well below normal. Expect it to clear out by the beginning of next week, giving us a chance to finally get back to our normal pacific weather that we have been experiencing all winter. Till then you will have to brave the cold!

Stay up to date on how cold the weather will get here.......

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/gfsx.php?inv=0&plot=850&region=us&t=l