Hot Weather to Continue with More Storms

Southern Manitoba may see the warmest day of the year today as temperatures climb into the mid 30's under the presence of an upper ridge and a somewhat southerly wind. The ridge that is bringing this hot and sunny weather will weaken as several low pressure systems will track through the prairies, bringing us a couple of days of some unsettled weather across the southernmost region of the province.

A look at the 850 MB Temperatures for Wednesday at 6pm

 A nice southwest wind, combined with warmer temperatures under the ridge (22 to 24C at 850MB) today will help Southern Manitoba's temperatures to soar from inbetween 30 and 37C, Winnipeg will get to a Scorching 35C if all regions stick to sunny conditions. Today will definitely be the warmest day of the week, with temperatures returning to around 30C for Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will be mild with the temperatures only cooling to the high teens or low twenties.

A look at just one of the many systems that will affect us over the next few days, this one will affect us throughout tonight and into tomorrow morning. NMRS CB 40,00 Mean severe storms are likely in large numbers.

A number of low pressure systems are also set to track over the southern portions of the province starting this afternoon/evening, which will bring us the risk of thunderstorms late this afternoon,evening, overnight and throughout the day tomorrow. While forecast storm indicies will be signinficant given the heat  and humidity, a lack of shear will make sure that any storms that form will be the slow moving pulse type storms. They likely will strengthen to severe levels, although they will be range from being hit and miss to widespread. The main threat from any of the storms will be large hail, damaging winds, intense lightning, and heavy rains given there speed and intensity. Tornadoes won't be likely due to the lack of windshear, though if one storms can get strong enough it could end up producing a tornado given the high instability. 

Things will clear up for Friday, with a few hit and miss storms in the South east. Another Storm System will make an appearance on the weekend when we will likely see another possible round of storms.

Welcome Back To Hot And Humid Weather!

The week ahead will be another hot one for people living in Southern Manitoba as another ridge of high pressure starts building into the province. Allowing for another significant heatwave to make headlines in the region.

An area of high pressure will build in this week, allowing for hotter weather to return

The week will start off fairly cool for the heatwave with temperatures in the high twenties to near or above thirty degrees in Southern Manitoba on Monday and on Tuesday. Humidity levels likely will remain low on these day's making conditions feel fairly hot and dry. As we get into the middle of the week on Wednesday temperatures will be in the low to mid thirties, with the humidity levels making it feel like 40C or hotter. As a result various regions could have humidex advisories issued by Environment Canada due to the possible 40C+ humidex temperatures that could be in place. Once we get into the late week period temperatures will be around the 30C mark with humidity values remaining fairly high, making it feel still quite tropical.

Potential Exists for Severe Storms On Wednesday Evening/Night in Winnipeg and The Red River Valley, as there will be 4000 J/Kg of CAPE available in the region during that timeframe. Image is provided by Wundermap from Wunderground

The presence of hot humid weather over the Southern Part of the province this week will allow the atmosphere to become very unstable, giving a risk of thunderstorms on many days. With an area of high pressure over our region it makes it difficult to forecast thunderstorms, as high pressure tends to reduce thunderstorm activity. According to one of the blog's I read today mentioned that "the ridge we will be under won't be that good at reducing thunderstorm activity." So in Turn we may be in for more unstable weather than the usual stable weather we see with high pressure. The best chances for thunderstorm activity in Southern Manitoba appears to be during the second half of the week, from Wednesday towards the weekend and the beginning of next week. During the time frame the atmosphere will be very unstable and there will be some weather systems moving our region that could trigger storms. The potential will exist for storms that could be severe at times due to the instability present in the atmosphere. There also could be slow moving storms at times bringing the threat of heavy rainfall and localized flooding, with upwards of 100mm if one storm sits over the same area for an hour or more. The storms will be scattered to numerous during the second half of the week, although they will not be widespread. I will keep everyone updated on the thunderstorm potential with posts on Wednesday and on Friday of this week.

Overall expect a beautiful week with hot temperatures and sunny conditions, with a few days of thunderstorm activity that we may have to contend with.

Bring On The Heat!

This whole week will feature warm and hot weather in all of Southern Manitoba, a trend that will continue for the next 2 weeks.

An Animation of forecast Temperatures at 850MB from 00Z Today Through until Thursday 5 July at 00Z

 Starting off our big story, it looks like we will see a wonderful night in Southern Manitoba tonight with temperatures near 20C for overnight lows. A high pressure system will be in place throughout the Day tomorrow, pumping warm air up from the Gulf of Mexico allowing our temperatures to get into the high 20's and possibly mid 30's. Tomorrow the humidity will increase substantially, as our temperatures climb to 30 degrees making it feel more like the 40's. The heat will last until on Wednesday when we see a cold front push through the province. Although on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday the temperatures will be a little cooler but above 20C. Another ridge is expected to build on Saturday as we see a return to warmer than normal weather with temperatures above 30C and some humidity.

 A look at CAPE values during the Tuesday Overnight period

As for Thunderstorm Activity, the regions that certainly will see severe weather include the southern part of Saskatchewan throughout the night tonight and tomorrow afternoon. There still may be that threat in southern Manitoba on Wednesday, although it is less clear. The best chance for seeing thunderstorms in the Red River Valley will be Tuesday Night through until Wednesday Morning as storms that form over Saskatchewan Drift into the southern part of the province during the overnight hours. Though, these storms will happen after dark they may still be severe as they will have a 40 knot LLJ to work with. As for other portions of the province including SW Manitoba there may be a risk for thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon especially near the Saskatchewan border, as some storms may enter from Saskatchewan.

Overall look for a potentially stormy hot week this week and next week, if you like the stormy hot weather,

Another Stormy Day On The Way Tomorrow; Warmer Weather on the Way

Possible showers and storms tomorrow will be welcomed with upper level ridging that will allow for our temperatures to start rising into the 20's and even low 30's later this week into the weekend and next week.

Showers And Storms Likely Tomorrow from Noon Through the Evening hours, in the Interlakes, Winnipeg and most of the Red River Valley.

The rest of the showers and storms will taper off this evening as they move into Ontario along with the main area of low pressure, leaving behind it conditions ranging from partly cloudy to clear across the Southern half of the province. Although temperatures won't be too bad, likely near the  low double digit ranges in all regions of the province it will provide for a very comfortable evening if you are heading out. Tomorrow will be a similar story but not as cloudy. The sun will be out throughout the morning and early afternoon hours allowing our temperatures in Southern Manitoba to rise into the high teens and low twenties, before another small front brushes past the province in the afternoon and evening. As this front slides by expect the formation of showers and storms in the Red River Valley and Eastern Manitoba as the daytime heating is combined with an area of lift along the front. Storms will generally be non severe in nature, although a few could reach severe limits for hail up to toonies and heavy rainfall.

Ridging will build into this weekend

Tomorrow will also mark a shift in our weather pattern, as a ridge starts to build into the province getting our temperatures into a warming trend. That ridge will continue to build into the weekend letting Sunshine take hold over the province and aid in getting a boost of our temperatures and humidity levels. It is definitely going to give us some time to dry out, especially for those in SW Manitoba who have received well over 240mm of rain in the past few weeks.

Today's Tip: A look at the legend of the NWS Weather Map (top picture) 

Another Weekend of Unsettled Weather

(Some Information Provided by Brad From A Weather Moment)

Today will be another beautiful day for the start of the Red River Exhibition as temperatures near the mid 20C range anywhere in the southern part of the province, with very little cloud cover to contend with. Although things are about to turn active for the weekend with the arrival of more low pressure systems that will move over our region.

An area of rain/storms will form in SE Sask, Western North Dakota tonight at 6pm and it will drift eastwards throughout the night.

An area of low pressure is expected to trek eastwards across the prairies and northern plains today, as a result things will become more favourable for the development of thunderstorms tonight. As the system tracks into SW Manitoba and Western North Dakota tonight, storms should have very little issue popping up. With decent instability, the storms should quickly grow into an area of rain with embedded thunderstorms and likely trek East-Northeast. The area of rain will get to the SW by late evening, Red River Valley late overnight and get through to eastern Manitoba by the morning and afternoon. With little LLJ influence in place it will likely keep the thunderstorm threat to a minimum with the rain that pushes through. Although the odd rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out. Some Models are forecasting up to near 10 and 15mm of rain over the next 3 to 6 hours. This system looks a lot similar to last weekends storm system, so it may end up prompting more stormchasers to head out if severe weather develops. As the area of low pressure tracks through the rest of Manitoba tomorrow, we will see the chance for showers and thunderstorms through much of the Red River Valley in the afternoon. Chances will be higher North of Morris, that would include Winnipeg and areas North.
 

Another Round Of Storms, Possibly Some Severe On Sunday

The threat of severe weather returns to Southern Manitoba on Sunday as another powerful low pressure system moves into the area. Dewpoints will rapidly climb up into the high teens/low twenties on Sunday, especially in regions of SW Manitoba as a powerful southerly flow develops out ahead of the incoming storm system. CAPE values will likely climb past 2000 J/Kg with decent shear. Tornado potential exists and looks to be near the Western Red River Valley, including Pilot Mound,Crystal City, Manitou, Pembina Valley Provincial Park, Morden, Winkler, Altona, Emerson and Morris. All areas South and West of Winnipeg. The closer to the USA border you live, the greater the risk for tornado producing Supercells. As the storm system travels eastwards into the Red River Valley by evening things should blow up fairly good, with widespread thunderstorms growing quickly into an MCS. Damaging Winds and large hail will most certainly be a threat for areas in the RRV. Sunday's forecast is sensitive to the systems speed. If it ends up being slower everything will be further West, If faster everything will be further East.

Details on the coming storm systems will be available on Twitter and in my Blog Commentary

Significant Tornado Threat In Southern Manitoba Saturday

A slow moving area of low pressure pushing into our region this weekend will set the stage for the potential of supercell thunderstorms capable of producing dangerous flooding, extremely large hail, damaging winds and possible tornadoes.

 A look at the slow moving low pressure system that is set to roll into Southern Manitoba on saturday with the Severe Thunderstorm coverage risk map.

The main surface low starts to move into our area on Saturday, bringing a warm front up from the Northern plains of North Dakota into Southern Manitoba. 
So what will the atmosphere have available for the Storm's Tomorrow? Looking at Data Provided by Brad from A Weather Moment 

• Moisture: Plentiful. Surface dewpoints will be sitting near 20°C across Southern Manitoba, with 850mb dewpoints pushing up towards 15-17°C. This deep layer of moisture will provide plenty of energy for storms to work with.
• Instability: The major inhibition to storms will be a layer of warm air at 700mb. Temperatures will climb to 10-13°C at 700mb on Saturday morning, however cooler air will push in later in the afternoon, helping destabilize the mid-levels. LI values of -8 to -11, combined with CAPE values anywhere from 2500 J/kg to 5500 J/kg are evidence of an extremely unstable atmosphere.
• Shear: With a decent upper-level jet pushing in through the day, most areas across southwest and south-central Manitoba will see bulk shear values increase to 30-40kt by evening.
• Trigger: A warm front draped across Southern Manitoba will be strong enough to initiate convection in the mid-to-late afternoon as the cap begins to erode.

Overall models are having a hard time deciding on the speed of this system, but they agree that it has the potential to produce dangerous supercell thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes. The greatest difficulty is predicting where they will form, current indications are that the greatest threat for tornadoes will likely occur in a the region from North of grand Forks towards and north of the Canadian Border. This would likely include the Red river Valley and into Winnipeg and North. Although if this turns out to be different SW Manitoba might be under the gun, for tornadoes. So overall here is the Risk Map for Saturday:

The Latest Storm Prediction Centre Severe Weather Outlook, areas hatched in red indicates the best chance for severe thunderstorms.

                                                                                                                                         According to Brad "large MCS will likely develop as the whole system lifts northwards overnight, which will continue to provide a severe weather threat in the form of strong winds and large hail. It will push through the RRV by Sunday morning. We may see the threat for another round of thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon, however they are not expected to be severe. Things will finally cool off on Monday as the main upper low moves through and draws in cooler, dryer air from the west.

Our Hot Week Set to End with a Bang!

(Information Provided by Brad from A Weather Moment)

Temperatures are ready to soar for the rest of the week as a heat source from the Gulf of Mexico builds into the southern portion of the province. Everyone across all of Southern Manitoba should begin to prepare for a potentially dangerous end of week powerful low pressure system that will threaten the first significant severe weather outbreak of the season.


850mb theta-e (a form of measuring temperature) chart valid for 06Z Thursday 07 June. 

The above picture with the red arrows very well depicts the advection of a warm Gulf of Mexico airmass into our region, (theta-e is basically a form of measuring temperature). A southerly flow aloft, aided by a long wave trough over British Columbia to our west and a blocking high to our East will bring us the hottest days we have experienced this year, throughout the rest of this week. Temperatures are expected to reach the 25C to 30C range through the second half of this week.       

Postion of fronts and weather at 00Z Friday

 A weak low pressure system will move through Southern Manitoba throughout Thursday night, ahead of the main upper level feature. Even though dynamics don't look to great for severe weather, a line of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon and evening hours they will intensify aqnd slowly move east-northeastwards. While tornadoes will not be likely with the storms on Thursday afternoon/evening, CAPE values near 1250 to 1750 J/kg combined with Lifted Indicies near -5 and 20 to 30 Shear should be enough for large hail according to Brad. The possible slow moving nature of the line of storms could produce a risk for heavy rainfall with as much as 30+mm falling over a short period of time. While showers will be common over the southwest portion of the province on Thursday, the chance for showers does extend eastwards through the Red River Valley in the afternoon. Most of the precipitation will fall with the thunderstorms that will develop in the evening.

Although this is still 36 hours away and things could change a lot between now and then. According to Brad "models still are having a hard degrading the blocking pattern that is in place right now ,and some are much more progressive with features and some are much slower."  If things end up more progressive than the look now, there may be a small storm threat for Thursday night.

Thunderstorm Outlook for Night 2 (00Z to 18Z June 08).

Brad says " That taking into account the various speeds, the current area that might see storms on Thursday afternoon/evening looks to be the area bounded from the US border north to Brandon, up towards Dauphin/Swan River, then eastwards across the Interlake and southwards down the eastern Red River Valley. Storms will exit through the Central/Northern Whiteshell. Friday will yet again be another warm day;debris cloud left behind from Thursday Night's convection should clear around lunch time which will hopefully allow the sunshine to warm us to the mid to high 20's. Dewpoints look to build in the afternoon pushing up to the 18C or 19C degrees making it feel quite humid. The main frontal system is set to move in on the weekend, and what a system it looks to be.


SPC Day 4-8 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

According to Brad "We’ll be under the influence of two strong shortwaves that will push copious amounts of instability over Southern Manitoba. CAPE values look to exceed 2500 J/kg and potentially be as high as 5000-5500 J/kg; this, combined with a weak cap north of the warm front and favorable shear profiles looks to point at a potent setup for severe thunderstorms with high probabilities of (extremely) large hail, strong winds, and elevated risks of tornadoes." From My perspective it looks like this setup will be similar to June 22nd and 23rd 2007 tornado event that featured Canada's first F5 Tornado in Elie and that also resulted in 6 other dangerous tornadoes in Southwestern Manitoba.

More Details will be available throughout the next couple days on Twitter and some on my blog post on this potentially serious Storm Outbreak.

Stormy Sunday on the Way

After a beautiful start to the weekend, things are about to change. A Low Pressure system will sweep through Southern Manitoba over the next 24 hours bringing a possibility of more showers and storms to some regions in the southern part of the province. 

Wonderful Overnight Temperatures in Manitoba (Shown on the GFSX 850 MB Temperature Model)

Tonight things will start to cloud over ahead of a warm front where we will see the possibilty of the odd shower or two with a chance for a storm, as they move in from Saskatchewan. Showers mainly can be expected in areas of Southwest Manitoba, towards the parkland's region. Temperatures will also be in and around 15C in many regions although closer to 10C in the interlakes, during the overnight hours.  

However, a Mesoscale convective system is forecast to form in Montana and drift Northeastward into Southeast Saskatchewan and Southwest Manitoba, tonight through through the early morning tomorrow along a cold front. Although, the area of convection and showers will outstrip the cold front & warm front, and move fairly fast through the rest of the southern part of the province through the morning. Things will clear out late in the morning allowing for our temperatures to rise into the mid 20's by mid afternoon, with a moist airmass in place. 

850 MB Dewpoint Forecast at 18 UTC, showing 15C dewpoints in Southern Manitoba at 12 noon.

Thing's will start to change for the worst by late afternoon. We will have Temperatures in the Mid 20's and Dewpoints near 16C, if the Dewpoints can get that high MLCAPES will be in the 1000 J/KG range along with SBCAPES rising towards 1,580 J/KG at 3pm. Deep Shear Around 40 knots will also be available. This will be a perfect brewing environment for Severe Thunderstorms that will likely form along a cold front somewhere West Of Winnipeg. The Storms will move likely contain large hail and damaging winds & isolated tornadoes, as they move along east into Ontario by Evening. So I do expect that Environment Canada may mention a chance for showers or thunderstorms in tomorrow morning's forecast issuance at 5am and likely at 11am. Also keep in mind that they may also issue severe thunderstorm/tornado watches and warnings if needed.


Temperatures on Monday and for the rest of the week will continue to stay above average, despite the passage of that cold front. Models are also trending at a possible ridge by late week, maybe allowing our temperatures to reach the low 30's along with high humidity. I will have a post detailing that situation on Wednesday if things hold True.