Record Heat Hits Southern Manitoba

It was a record breaking day altogether on Wednesday for parts of Southern Manitoba, as a southerly flow pumped pumped up some of the hottest air of the year into the area. Temperatures rose into the mid to high 30's over the Red River Valley and Southwestern Portions of the province. In Winnipeg it was the 20th day this summer with high temperatures of 30C or higher (normal should be 13), Winnipeg's high temperature of 35.4C Wednesday tied July 29th as the hottest day of the year in the city. Record Temperatures were set elsewhere in Brandon at 36.9C, and in Dauphin at 37.9C which was the hottest spot in the country. Even hotter weather was recorded south of the border including minot at 40C in North Dakota and 44C in Chamberlain, South Dakota.


Record temperatures across Southern Manitoba Wed Aug 29... (Courtesy of Rob's Blog)

                        New      old     record  records
Location               record   record    year    began
--------------------------------------------------------
Berens River arpt      28.8     28.5      1991    1905
Brandon arpt           36.9     36.7      1972    1890
Dauphin art            37.9     35.6      1972    1891
Fisher Branch          34.6     32.0      1991    1977
Melita                 36.1     30.1      1996    1993
Pilot Mound            35.5     35.0      1961    1938
Pinawa                 33.4     33.0      1991    1964
Portage la Prairie.    36.6     35.6      1972    1886

Southern Manitoba Continues Baking In The Heat

Temperatures have already risen into the mid to high 30's in Southern manitoba, the heat will continue this afternoon and evening until a cold front passes through the region later this evening cooling temperatures into the mid teens. Tips: During the heat Manitoba Health suggests Manitoba residents take precautions against heat-related illnesses whenever the humidex climbs above 37. Manitoba Health advises the following:

• Stay aware and be prepared
  • Know daytime and night-time temperatures-both outdoors and indoors- by checking your local weather forecasts and the thermostat in your home.
  • Stay up to date on weather alerts so you know when to take extra-care.
  • If you have an air-conditioner, make sure it’s working properly before the hot weather starts.
• Stay hydrated
  • Drink plenty of water (that’s the best liquid) before you feel thirsty.
  • Avoid alcoholic beverages, as they can increase the amount of water lost by the body.
• Stay cool and keep out of the sun
  • Plan outdoor activities for cooler parts of the day, but remember to wear insect repellant since mosquitoes are out too.
  • If you are outdoors during the hottest part of the day, shade yourself from the sun with an umbrella or a wide-brimmed hat with lots of ventilation (to allow the sweat on your head to evaporate), wear loose-fitting, breathable, light-coloured clothing, and remember to wear sunscreen to limit ultra-violet (UV) ray exposure.
  • If there is no air-conditioning at home- go to a cool place such as an air-conditioned mall, public library, or community centre.
  • Take a cool bath or shower or go for a swim to cool off.
  • Avoid using your oven or other appliances that could heat your home more.
  • Limit physical activities during the hotter parts of the day or exercise in an air-conditioned place.
• Take care of yourself and others
  • Check on family members, neighbours and friends - especially older adults and those with chronic conditions. Visiting is best because it is easier to identify signs of heat illness that could be missed over the phone.
  • Never leave people or pets in your care alone in closed vehicles or direct sunlight.

                          info from A Weather Moment

I will have a better post tomorrow recapping the heat wave and temperatures that were recorded.
            

Hot Sunny Weather Continues For The Rest Of The Week

Southern Manitoba will be lounging in sunny hot weather for the rest of the week as upper level ridging moves east across the prairie provinces. The province will see a chance for thunderstorms on Thursday Morning through until the evening as a cold front pushes through. The Sunny and hot Weather will return for Friday.

850 MB Temperatures for Wednesday at 6pm. Look how warm it is in Southern Manitoba 20C+ 850 MB Temperatures. Meaning 30C Weather! Woohoo!

 A southerly flow ahead of an incoming upper level ridge has already pumped temperatures to the 30C mark in some places yesterday and today. So with 850 MB Temperatures near or above 20C we will see daytime highs soar from 30 to 34C today, before the day is done. The warm air that will be in place over the south will also create warmer overnight temperatures. Considering we have had cooler nights with temperatures in the mid teens, tonight we will barely dip below the 20C mark in some places. Other regions may feel cooler, although only about by 5 degrees (10 to 15C) especially in the Southwest and in the Parkland’s. There also will be a risk of thunderstorms overnight as the cold front advances eastwards in the Western Portion of Manitoba.

Tomorrow will be another warm one, however an approaching cold front will move along the international border through the day, bringing some showers and storms through the morning to SW MB and the risk of more thunderstorms to the Red River Valley from Winnipeg and maybe all the way to Fargo. If storms develop they will likely form in the late afternoon along the surface feature. They will probably develop more in North Dakota then in Manitoba, less of a chance in Winnipeg.

Despite the hot weather that will be in place and daytime high's near 30C, severe weather indicies look fairly weak so I probably won't expect any severe weather when they form. The better chances for severe weather will remain in North Dakota.

We will see our temperatures dip into the mid teens on Thursday Night, and Friday looks beautiful with the sunshine and temperatures near 30C continuing. For the weekend it looks like we could have a cold front sweep through Saturday, bringing the threat of more showers and thunderstorms along with cooler weather. So as a result Saturday's daytime high will be in the mid to high 20's. Temperatures will likely rebound for Sunday with them returning to the high 20's.

After that temperatures look to stay warm and beautiful for next week!

July to End Hot and Stormy

After a round of active weather the past couple of days in Southern Manitoba, we can expect a short reprieve with a return to hot and humid weather for the end of July.

A look at Temperatures for the last day in July at 850MB, just add 13C onto the temperature legend you see in your region on the map.

The month of July will decidedly end just as it started, in the same fashion with the never-ending very warm weather. Sunny Skies and temperatures anywhere from the high twenties to low thirties can be expected for the rest of the day although there may be some cloudcover from general daytime heating. Nothing like what went on Yesterday through the Red River Valley. Winds will make for a comfortable breeze as they blow out of the Northwest, likely blowing some smoke from any ongoing Forest Fires in northern Manitoba southwards into the region. The night ahead will also be fairly nice as winds continue to blow out of the northwest in various locations, any leftover cloudcover will clear as we lose daytime heating. When we lose daytime heating our temperatures cool off so as a result we expect our temperatures to cool down to around 17 degrees tonight in Winnipeg with the outlying regions in the mid teens. 

Tomorrow will be a similar day, although we will have to contend with some thunderstorm activity mainly in Southwest Manitoba and the Western Red River Valley as another system decides to slide through the region. Currently it is looking like some of the storms could end up being pop up scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours as daytime heating and the system plays a role in triggering the storms. Given that we will have high amounts of instability in place I cannot rule out the possibility of some severe thunderstorms once they get going. By Mid Evening things could turn into a MCS once the storms bundle and organize themselves, this means that the Red River Valley and eastern Manitoba would be at threat as they would move Eastwards from the point of there origination and create threats of Strong Winds in Excess of 100 km/h, Heavy Rain, Intense Lightning and Large Hail. It is unclear as to what exactly what will happen with the Thunderstorm Complex or MCS at this moment, so I will keep everyone informed about the situation as we get closer to the evening hours Tomorrow. As for tomorrow's Temperatures they will once again feel hot and muggy as we approach or surpass the 30C Degree mark in Manitoba Tomorrow.

The First Couple of days into August are expected to continue to remain hot. High Temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday should reach or surpass 30C with a risk of some severe weather on Wednesday in the Southern Portion Of the province, too far ahead to tell exactly what will go on. I will keep you informed.  Thursday should be sunny and warm as well with little humidity with the Heat Continuing. For Friday we may again be in for another rough ride, several sources have noted that there could be a potential for a thunderstorm outbreak in Manitoba on this day. It is something to watch as well. Comments will be available on Twitter throughout the coming days detailing the severe weather potential.

Hot Weather Expected To Continue For The Weekend

The hot weather will continue for Southern Manitoba through this weekend, but chances for unsettled weather will return for the second half of the weekend, as a trough swings through the region.

 A look at 850 MB Temperatures For Saturday, Tip: Add 13C to the temperature you see on the map to get the actual forecast temperature for your region.

The warm weather will continue tonight, with temperatures hovering near 20C across the southern half of the province. Tomorrow will also be a nice day across the Southern Part of the province with temperatures around the thirty degree mark along with a nice breeze from the west. Due to the heat that will be present tomorrow afternoon there will be a chance for pop up thunderstorms in Regions West of the Red River Valley such as Pilot Mound, Manitou, Brandon,Virden and Melita regions. The storms will mainly be non severe in nature, although they may strengthen to severe limits if they get going. Areas around the Western Red River Valley may also have a chance of seeing storms tomorrow afternoon.

GEM GLB Model for Monday at 12am, notice how precipitation is hovering over the southern portion of the province in a linear manner. That indicates it will either be heavy rainshowers or thunderstorm activity.

Sunday Thunderstorms are Possible

The day on Sunday will be sunny and warm with temperatures reaching the high twenties along with a southeast wind from 15 to 30 km/h before things start turning unsettled in the evening ahead of another trough. It currently appears that there will be a potential for thunderstorms some severe in the evening hours due to the amount of daytime heating that will go on through the afternoon hours on the day Sunday ahead of the trough. Thunderstorm activity will be more likely during the overnight hours on Sunday into Monday as the main trough goes through, with the storms clearing out before morning. Rainfall Accumulations will widely depend on the thunderstorm activity, I would expect that general amounts would be near or around 5mm in most areas. Locally higher in thunderstorms. 

As for the week next week looking like it will be a nice one with temperatures remaining in the high twenties, with a couple chances for thunderstorms.

I will update on Twitter as needed for changes in this forecast.

Hot Weather to Continue with More Storms

Southern Manitoba may see the warmest day of the year today as temperatures climb into the mid 30's under the presence of an upper ridge and a somewhat southerly wind. The ridge that is bringing this hot and sunny weather will weaken as several low pressure systems will track through the prairies, bringing us a couple of days of some unsettled weather across the southernmost region of the province.

A look at the 850 MB Temperatures for Wednesday at 6pm

 A nice southwest wind, combined with warmer temperatures under the ridge (22 to 24C at 850MB) today will help Southern Manitoba's temperatures to soar from inbetween 30 and 37C, Winnipeg will get to a Scorching 35C if all regions stick to sunny conditions. Today will definitely be the warmest day of the week, with temperatures returning to around 30C for Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will be mild with the temperatures only cooling to the high teens or low twenties.

A look at just one of the many systems that will affect us over the next few days, this one will affect us throughout tonight and into tomorrow morning. NMRS CB 40,00 Mean severe storms are likely in large numbers.

A number of low pressure systems are also set to track over the southern portions of the province starting this afternoon/evening, which will bring us the risk of thunderstorms late this afternoon,evening, overnight and throughout the day tomorrow. While forecast storm indicies will be signinficant given the heat  and humidity, a lack of shear will make sure that any storms that form will be the slow moving pulse type storms. They likely will strengthen to severe levels, although they will be range from being hit and miss to widespread. The main threat from any of the storms will be large hail, damaging winds, intense lightning, and heavy rains given there speed and intensity. Tornadoes won't be likely due to the lack of windshear, though if one storms can get strong enough it could end up producing a tornado given the high instability. 

Things will clear up for Friday, with a few hit and miss storms in the South east. Another Storm System will make an appearance on the weekend when we will likely see another possible round of storms.

Bring On The Heat!

This whole week will feature warm and hot weather in all of Southern Manitoba, a trend that will continue for the next 2 weeks.

An Animation of forecast Temperatures at 850MB from 00Z Today Through until Thursday 5 July at 00Z

 Starting off our big story, it looks like we will see a wonderful night in Southern Manitoba tonight with temperatures near 20C for overnight lows. A high pressure system will be in place throughout the Day tomorrow, pumping warm air up from the Gulf of Mexico allowing our temperatures to get into the high 20's and possibly mid 30's. Tomorrow the humidity will increase substantially, as our temperatures climb to 30 degrees making it feel more like the 40's. The heat will last until on Wednesday when we see a cold front push through the province. Although on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday the temperatures will be a little cooler but above 20C. Another ridge is expected to build on Saturday as we see a return to warmer than normal weather with temperatures above 30C and some humidity.

 A look at CAPE values during the Tuesday Overnight period

As for Thunderstorm Activity, the regions that certainly will see severe weather include the southern part of Saskatchewan throughout the night tonight and tomorrow afternoon. There still may be that threat in southern Manitoba on Wednesday, although it is less clear. The best chance for seeing thunderstorms in the Red River Valley will be Tuesday Night through until Wednesday Morning as storms that form over Saskatchewan Drift into the southern part of the province during the overnight hours. Though, these storms will happen after dark they may still be severe as they will have a 40 knot LLJ to work with. As for other portions of the province including SW Manitoba there may be a risk for thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon especially near the Saskatchewan border, as some storms may enter from Saskatchewan.

Overall look for a potentially stormy hot week this week and next week, if you like the stormy hot weather,