The day for Tuesday will start off with some remnant cloud cover in southern Manitoba if any thunderstorms in western Manitoba from Saskatchewan overnight makes it into the area, if not partly cloudy to clear skies can be expected. As the day progresses the winds will start to shift from the North to the south and southwest, Moisture: dewpoint temperatures will not increase that much in our area as most of the available gulf moisture moves into North Dakota and far eastern states. Temperatures for the day Tuesday will get into the mid twenties, possibility that the humidex readings along the United states border get into the 30 to 35C, areas further north may be in for only 25 to 30C humidex readings.
As we get into the evening period, a approaching cold front and trowel will slowly move east into areas of central southern Manitoba and much of North Dakota. Looking at the instability with the associated frontal system coming in to a fairly unstable airmass, CAPE values should be in the 500 to 1,000 J/Kg range with lifted index’s ranging from -3 to -5 across a large portion of the southern Half of the province will be sufficient enough to produce thunderstorms that may just approach severe limits for a short time, sub severe to non severe thunderstorms can be expected through the evening and overnight. However given there is a significant amount more of Instability and Shear towards North Dakota there is a higher likelihood of severe weather south of the border. A meso cake (mesoscale convective complex) may occur in Northern Portions of North Dakota tomorrow and if anything develops on the northern fringe of that there is a chance that the southern Red River Valley could be clipped. Potential for thunderstorms in the non severe category could occur further north in n the Winnipeg and northern red River valley areas. Follow in the comments section for potential changes in this outlook!! The threat for showers and thunderstorms will continue into early Wednesday morning.
Clearing and warmer, stable weather will arrive for the day Thursday as a ridge of high pressure moves into Northern areas of Manitoba, temperatures will remain in the mid to high 20’s under a north to westerly flow. Chances for Showers and Thunderstorms will arrive again at the end of the week through the weekend and into early next week.
