Active weekend on the way to Manitoba

Well another weekend of active weather is set to impact southern Manitoba this weekend, thanks to a large trough setting up over western Canada and a ridge developing over the eastern united states. Inbetween that a strong jetstream is set to establish itself over the prairies bringing with it areas of low pressure and instability and rounds of severe weather. Details about this is on the way in today's weather blog. 

Saturday Night: Tonight a large swath of showers and thunderstorms will develop in Montana, NW North Dakota and SE Saskatchewan with MUCAPE values of 2,000-3,000K/Kg and Storm relative helicity of 200-300 it should support thunderstorms with the potential for severe thunderstorms. The tornado threat appears to be in SE Saskatchewan, not in Manitoba. As a result of the instability a line of thunderstorms looks to develop and move east northeast through the evening and overnight hours, making it's way into SW Manitoba shortly after midnight. As the storms move through the potential is there for wind gusts up to 100-110km/h, and hail up to the size of golf balls. Storms may weaken as they move east,northeast throughout the night. Temperatures overnight will drop into the upper teens.

Sunday (Above): Another day of interesting weather is forecast for our region, a warm front will be sitting over southern sections of Manitoba and a cold front sitting over eastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba. As a result of this setup a large area of dewpoint temperatures in the mid to high 20's is forecast allowing CAPE levels to rise into the 1000 to 2000 range (Thunderstorm energy), with EHI levels of 2-3. As a result expect thunderstorms to possibly develop in SW MB and the western parklands, there also is a chance for some thunderstorms to form in the red river valley, eastern Manitoba but lower. Some of the storms that form may be severe with hail up to the size of golf balls or larger, wind gusts up to 110km/h, 75-100mm of rain and a tornado threat. This threat is conditional on clearing happening, if it doesn't clear storms may not likely have the neccessary environment to develop. Expect thunderstorms to clear by late evening and lift northeast into central parts of Manitoba. Temperatures will drop only in the upper teens for a majority of the region. 

Monday (Above): The attention turns to southeastern Manitoba as the center of the low pressure system sits over North Dakota and lifts north into southern Manitoba by evening. Temperatures will reach the mid to high 20's in southeast Manitoba, where the west will sit in the high teens and low 20's. Dewpoints in the low 20's are possible in eastern Manitoba. What this will do is allow for moisture to advect north into southeastern Manitoba with upwards of 2,000 to 3,500 J/Kg, SRH values of 400 to 800 are possible in southcentral and southeastern Manitoba, EHI values of 6 to 10 are possible. What this all means is that storms will likely develop in North Dakota during the afternoon and will move north into south central and southeastern Manitoba, there will be a risk for supercells with the possibility of hail up to the size of baseballs, heavy rain in excess of 75-100mm, tornado or 2 is possible with the storms that develop. They may move northeast into eastern Manitoba come later in the evening. We at the weather centre of Manitoba will update you as the day gets closer. Both the NAM and the RRFS have convection moving through the red river valley on Monday. 

Storm totals will vary from 50 80mm of rain in the western portions of Manitoba and the parklands in Swan River, Areas of the Red River valley From Winnipeg West to Portage La Prairie may see 50 to 75mm of rain elsewhere a general 20 to 45mm of rain is expected.

A brief cooldown is possible during the first half of the week with temperatures in the low 20's before another heatwave kicks in during the second half of the week with highs in the upper 20's and low 30's. Environment Canada has already hinted at signs of a heat wave in there latest forecast discussion.