Severe Thunderstorm Threat Likely in Manitoba today

 Hi everyone, I have an update on the severe weather threat, which is likely to impact southern Manitoba this afternoon evening and overnight time frame. A strong low pressure system is going to be impacting in southern sections of the province bringing with it increase levels of moisture, humidity, and instability. The end result of this will turn out not to be the best for some. Find out the details of where, and when the worst of the weather will occur

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Today: I’ll try and keep things simple for today’s outlook. Today’s Southern Manitoba is under the gun for significant thunderstorms as a result of temperatures reaching the low 30s and high 30s with the heat index. A warm front will be moving into southern Manitoba, bringing in instability values quite significant for this time of year . Most unstable CAPE values will rise into the 3000 J per kilogram range to 4000 J per kilogram range in some areas of the SW parts of Manitoba, by this evening, energy helicity values will rise into the 5 to 12 levels. With all of this combined and dewpoint temperatures reaching the 20s this afternoon. Overall, with all the ingredients in place, we have ample thunderstorm, energy, shear, twisting in the atmosphere for super cells, humidity, and a cold front and warm front as the trigger we will be looking at a significant risk for thunderstorms, which will be severe This afternoon, a risk of discreet super cell thunderstorms with the capacity to bring in hail up to baseball size, rainfall rates up to 30-50mm or more , and tornadoes. This risk is possible in southeastern Manitoba and the red River Valley and southwestern Manitoba along a warm front as it lifts north. As the evening progresses, a dry line will advance east through Northwestern, North Dakota and southwestern Manitoba ahead of this a line of super south thunderstorms will likely develop forming into a squall line which will impact a majority of southern sections of Manitoba during the evening and overnight hours. An extreme risk for severe weather is possible in In areas from Brandon East to Winnipeg with the eastern half of Winnipeg to the Ontario border in a high risk for severe weather. With this squall line expect wind gust up to 130 km an hour, hail up to the size of golf balls are larger, and heavy rain rates of 50 to 75 mm/h. It is possible that this event may classify as a Derecho. 

Tomorrow, much of the same as in the forecast for southern sections of Manitoba and eastern portions of the province, with a lower risk of severe thunderstorms and a non-organized threat for scattered showers and scattered thunderstorms. Less instability will be in play for the day on Wednesday. 

Much cooler conditions are forecast for the second half of the week with temperatures reaching the teens for daytime highs and low 20s. Overnight lows in the upper single digits or low teens.