Spring Outlook 2016 and a look at our summer.

Last Week of March there will be an increased area of cool weather from the arctic, however considering there will be a very small snowpack our temperatures will not budge that much. The Good news is that it will stay above zero for the most part and likely lead to a lot of melting in areas.

With the El Nino Weakening and still having an impact on the country this year it is very likely that our spring temperatures will stay near to quite above average.

Looking back on previous Trans Nino years can help us find out what the weather will be like this year...

April 1983 was a very cold April by normal standards, especially the first half of the month however there were major improvements once the second half of the month came by temperatures in Winnipeg were soaring into the double digits and into the twenties. Thunderstorms were reported in the middle of April. About 4.4cm of snow was reported the whole month of April, last snowfall that year was in late May. 2.3mm of rain.



April of 1998 was actually quite warm compared to other Trans Nino years, temperatures were able to soar into the double digits the first week of April through into May with some minor cool downs. Thunderstorms also occurred in Mid April as well in 1998. No snowfall was reported in the month's of April/May at Winnipeg airport. 38.6mm fell in April at the airport.



April of 2003 was a dry one and we stayed mainly seasonal, but there were a few days where our temperatures were in the twenties, thank's to a warm front that brought warm air into the province that day. Thunderstorms did not occur this year until late May. However about 15cm of snow fell in April thanks to cool temperatures. 17.3mm of rain fell the whole month.

May of 1983 featured above normal temperatures along with 29mm of rain which is below normal and a trace of snow.


May of 1998 was a wet and rainy month with 100mm of rain the whole month, May 10th was the only day in the month with a thunderstorm. Temperatures were seasonal for the month of May.


May of 2003 experienced temperatures in the high teens for the start of the month then they became very warm for the end of the month with high's in the mid to high 20's. 78.5mm of rain fell in the whole month with one storm day on May 29th.


June of 1983 was a wet month with 139.2mm of rain falling in the whole month, and there were several days of thunderstorms the days of the 13, 19, 20, 21, 23. Temperatures were above average the whole month as well.

June of 1998 was seasonal in terms of temperature lots of more than 20 degree temperatures, rainfall was below average with only 2 days of thunderstorms on the 19th and the 26th. 59.5mm f rain fell the whole month.

June of 2003 had above normal temperatures with storms on the 6, 15, and 28. 42.5mm fell the whole month.

If we lose our snowpack early there will be warmer temperature's sooner, this is the more probable outlook for the month of April.  I'm going for middle of April when our snowpack will be gone. Consensus for April is really tough right now because. Models differ on snowfall in the coming weeks which would effect our overall temperatures. However as models were predicting a warm April they appear to be going in the opposite direction, now showing bouts of arctic air flowing in. Whereas the spring outlooks before were going for a warm April. Here's the thing if our snowpack is gone our temperatures will remain above zero to ten degrees even in arctic air.

April

 I'm going for a more cooler bias for April, however our snowpack will be very small if we see any snow. We will have periods of warmer weather intertwined in with the cooler weather. As for precipitation I am calling for a near to slightly above average considering over the next few weeks into the month of April we are likely to see systems slide through the area as the flow becomes more zonal for the month of May. There may be some early spring snowfalls but they won't stay long. rainfall and thunderstorms look more likely in the middle of April.


May

For May much above average temperatures with a zonal flow and some ridging, periods of cooler temperatures are expected. Near to above average precipitation as a west to east flow at times transitions into a southwestern flow. "Things look to start getting wet in the middle of the month" according to some folk's from NWS Grand Forks via Dan Riddle, We could experience our first severe weather outbreaks at the start to the middle of the month. Tornadoes could start becoming common mid to late May.

June

June Above average temperatures and depending on how much ingredients we can receive in the early summer season for severe weather we either could end up with a little amount of rainfall or a lot. At the moment I'm leaning towards a above average amount of rainfall through the month although we could end up with a lot more depending how big our severe weather season gets. Southwest and western flow will bring in low pressure systems through the area on multiple occasions. Possibly enough thunderstorms to get our precipitation totals high enough to cause local flooding. This will all happen as a possible drought could be taking place in North Dakota, we will be lucky enough to be along the primary stormtrack this year which will bring in lots of moisture. Further north and east you go the gulf airmass will be limited resulting in less amounts of moisture and thunderstorms heading into summer considering most of it's presence will be in the states and southern Canada. However that doesn't mean it won't make it that far up north, it still will likely stream into those areas at one point or another.

Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Showing a warm Gulf of Mexico, which effects our weather here in Spring/Summer

Severe Weather Season Spring into Summer
Spring of 2016 is looking like it could very well be an active season considering how active it has been previous springs along with global warming. It is expected that our severe thunderstorm season will start early this year. The states have already been experiencing a very active season, it is usually a good indicator of what our spring and summer will be like here. A good indicator of our  severe weather season also is the gulf of mexico ocean temperatures, if it's cooler than average expect a less active season. However if the temperature anomalies are average or above average expect a busier or more severe season than usual. At the moment it is sitting around 24C that is average. Though considering it is that warm so early in the year we are looking at an active season , as the real spring heat hasn't arrived yet. Once it heats up more fuel for severe weather outbreaks will be added and it will add to the energy for bigger storms that will affect us into the summer.  Add to the fact that various weather models are hinting at above normal preciptation returning to our area mid to late spring. You mix in the heat along with the low pressure systems that will cause the precipitation will result in increased risks of severe weather. Multiple southwest flow events look to affect us which draws in warmer more humid air from the gulf of Mexico and severe weather of course. The threat area will be in the northern interlakes by June. If we see tornado events they could be a lot stronger because tornadoes in El Nino Years are usually the weakest, transitioning into a La Nina does usually cause stronger tornadoes. There is a link between warm ocean water in the Pacific and drier air for tornadoes to use in the summer months, which usually results in weaker tornadoes. However when you have cooler ocean waters it does usually create more moisture and more of a temperature difference to work with, which in turn makes them stronger. Looking at what the CANsips model is pointing at which is run here in Canada, they are forecasting above normal precipitation into June, July and August. At the moment heading into what could be a wet summer with the fact that we are going into a La Nina year it could very well be an active season considering La Nina years offer stronger tornadoes and thunderstorms. 2007 was a La Nina summer, the Elie Tornado and Dauphin Hailstorm occurred that year.






What was it like in previous summers?

1983 was a dry summer with only a few mm over 100mm falling the whole months of July and August. Thunderstorms occurred on July 30, August 2, 24, 27,29. Temperatures were above 30 degrees in Winnipeg for 27 days.

1998 Temperatures were slightly above normal for July with a few days above 30C, while August had virtually every day above 25C. Precipitation was just over 100mm for the 2 months in total. Thunderstorms occurred on July 1,10,12,18,26,27, with 38mm of rainfall together at the end of the month. August had 95mm of rain the whole month, with thunderstorms occurring on the 2,12,22,26,27.

2003 Temperatures were slightly above average with 44.5mm of rain falling the month of July. Storms occurred on the 6,11,14,1,29,30,31 in July. Temperatures in August were seasonal with 72mm of rain falling the whole month of August. 11 days above 30C occurred. Storms occurred on the 20th, 25, 27 and 28. 8 hours of storms occurred on the 27 and 28th.

Summer 2016

Summer outlook

Looking ahead to summer of 2016 it looks like that there will be above seasonal temperatures through the summer with average to slightly above average rainfall, as in past few summers there have been higher than average amounts of rainfall with global warming. As with years where an El Nino has been weakening there has been average amounts of rainfall, but taking into account how global warming is increasing rainfall amounts it is probable we will see higher amounts of precipitation considering various weather models are hinting at that happening this summer. Keep in mind there will be limited moisture for heavy rainfalls as you go further east and north considering gulf moisture will primarily be in the southern half of the province and united states. It won't be a consistent thing, it still will impact those areas on occasion just not as much as the south. A mainly west to east flow with some ridging is possible, but one of the models indicates a southwest flow steering systems in from the west coast of the united states bringing in big severe weather events. Severe weather is expected to worsen as we head into summer with more tornado events and severe weather outbreaks, the odds of worse tornadoes increase due to La Nina taking over and offering more volatility in the atmosphere due to temperature differences in the ground and atmosphere.


Any questions feel free to ask me...

                 Temperatures Precipitation

Dauphin Above Normal Above Normal

Winnipeg Above Normal Above Normal

Brandon Above Normal Above Normal

Emerson Above Normal Above Normal

Steinbach Above Normal Above Normal

Storm system set to impact southern Manitoba

The rest of the day today will be followed by very warm and sunny conditions as an area of low pressure arrives from the west which will be the main storm to start the week. Cooler weather will arrive for midweek. Interesting weather is ahead for the next few days for sure.

Thunderstorms possible overnight on Monday

The night ahead will be quite unsettled ahead of a approaching low pressure system there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the night in southwestern Manitoba as an area of rain moves in from northern North Dakota, ahead of the rain the Red River Valley will be a chance for thunderstorms to develop with a plume of 1,000J/kg MUCAPE through the overnight. Lift should be sufficient for storms to develop, current indications are that a line of showers will develop with thunderstorms embedded in them in eastern north Dakota into the portage la prairie area around 4am time. They will spread east northeast and strengthen into a line and likely impact the red river valley around sunrise. Or it will just be a rainmaker. Overnight lows tonight in the high single digits for the southwestern half of the province, and lows in the mid single digits for the parklands into the interlakes, red river valley and southeastern Manitoba. Winnipeg a low of about 5C.

Rain potential through the day Tuesday, this model shows the most rainfall amounts 25mm+

Looking ahead to the day Tuesday the thunderstorms will clear out in the early afternoon, replaced by rainfall in the day. Models are having a tough time deciding on the weather in the province, at the moment the GEM model is showing all rain in the Red River Valley, whereas the NAM and GFS are keeping the main rainfall east of the red river valley. However it does depend on where the rain's deformation zone takes place, if it moves further west there will be the good chance of seeing a very decent rainfall in Winnipeg and the red river valley. The consensus at the moment will be for a good soaking of rainfall for the day on Wednesday with amounts of 5 to 15mm, possibly even higher for the day on Tuesday in convection. Rain will change over to snow in the Red River Valley and eastern Manitoba and slowly drifting eastwards in the overnight timeframe, amounts will be from about 2 to 4cm for most. Not a lot of accumulations either. Lows will be in the low single digits near zero, so snow should melt.


Wednesday will have left over snow and flurries with cloudcover mixed in with sun, high temperatures will be in the low single digits and light winds out of the northwest. It will be a much drier day than Tuesday was. Clearing will take over on Wednesday night.

Long Range
It looks like we remain in a cooler weather pattern, with temperatures near to slightly below seasonal. Not as cold as what it could be due to the fact that our snowpack is pretty much gone. High temperatures will as a result stay near to slightly above zero or even closer to the mid single digits. Not a lot of warmth coming in like what we saw on the day Monday, until next month possibly.

Cool Night Ahead Before Some Potential Record Smashing Warmth Arrives

Our day today was a bit cloudy and cool thanks to remnants of yesterday's system, but now we are in the clear it looks like southern Manitoba is now headed for an extended period of above normal temperatures. That's right no more cold weather to complain about.

Let The Heat Begin!

The night ahead tonight will be marked with cloudy skies clearing to partly cloudy skies tonight, making our temperatures cooler than what they should be overnight. Winds will be light out of the north, I expect that Winnipeg will reach an overnight low of minus eight and somewhere around minus 6 to minus 10 in the Red River Valley whereas areas out by Melita and southwest Manitoba will be closer to zero likely minus one or two overnight. Further north from Dauphin to Bissett could be influenced more by the arctic air spilling out resulting in temperatures more near minus 12 or minus 13. Temperatures will quickly recover to start the day Thursday.


Thursday expect any lingering cloudcover to dissipate by morning, sunshine should take over during the late morning hours. Temperatures will finally get above zero degrees and a few places may see high temperatures in the mid teens especially in the southwest part of the province. I'm calling for a high temperature of plus 7C in Brandon, and a high of 15C in Melita. As for areas in the riding mountain areas it will be cooler as the snow there will be reflecting much of the sunlight, high's will only get as warm as 5 or 6C. Areas in Eastman especially in the whiteshell areas will be cool with highs near 7C. Winnipeg on the other hand could reach high's close to ten degrees my high is about 9C, that would potentially break Winnipeg's record high temperature of 6.7C set in 1902. On Thursday night Winnipeg will only drop to a temperature of 6C.


Looking ahead to Friday that is when the real warmth will arrive! High temperatures will be in the low to mid teens across the south the problem is that with the weather models is that they are showing the warmth staying south of the Winnipeg area but I think it will be much further north. As a result expect highs inbetween 5 and 10C from the interlakes into the Dauphin Areas and Eastman. Much warmer weather further south towards Winnipeg and southwestern Manitoba, where I expect temperatures to go over ten degrees, likely in the city itself 10 to 15C. The airport may be a tad cooler given the fact there is still snow on the ground though we could make it to the record high of 12.8C set in 2012 if we get warm enough. Daytime high on Friday could be 13C in Winnipeg and 15C for Brandon, but best bet is 12C for Winnipeg. Overnight lows on Friday will drop once again only slightly above zero for most of the province, setting up for a warm Saturday.


Why are temperatures staying above zero at night? It's because most models at the moment are picking up on the idea that the dewpoints will be above zero as well through the day and night, with that being said it will or could possibly keep temperatures warm enough overnight to break previous minimum temperature records. The minimum temperature record in Winnipeg is 0.6C on Thursday night and 2.8C on Friday night both in 1878. We could also break the record dewpoint temperature of 6.0C set in 2012 on Thursday. With dewpoints above zero, snow melt is definitely possible in huge amounts combined with highs in the mid teens. WE COULD BE SNOW FREE BY THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK!!!


Long Range: Warmth Continues

Heading into the long range the NAEFS model is still picking up on above normal temperatures staying with us through until the 23rd,, or even longer. As our weather pattern continues to offer warm weather flooding in. That means as mentioned our warmth might be able to melt all the snow away by the 17th, high temperatures will be in the 0 to 15C range over the coming weeks as well. #GoAwaySnow

Let the melt begin!!

After several months of temperatures sitting below zero for daytime highs we are now welcomed with more springlike weather, it all begins on Sunday. High temperatures will soar into the mid single digits in much of southern Manitoba this week with some areas getting past ten degrees in snow free areas. A chance of rain will appear on Tuesday and Wednesday, before we return to sunnier weather and even warmer temperatures. All thanks to a major pattern change... Read on to find out how each day will turn out.






Surface Temperatures Overnight into Sunday

The night ahead tonight will feature winds gusting out of the south at 60km/h until about shortly after midnight, with the warming air coming in our temperatures will be rising to about the zero mark overnight ahead of an approaching low pressure system (above). This system will mark the change to warmer weather as a pacific airmass takes hold. Fog could develop as well overnight due to warmer air enveloping over the cold snow, it's already 3C in Portage La Prairie.

Sunny High's 3 to 7C

Into our day Sunday winds will be light out of the west and cloudcover will be minimal, that should get drier air in our area creating warmer temperatures for us. High temperatures will be above zero and in between 1 and 5C for areas that still have snowcover, areas such as the red river valley and Eastman still have plenty of snow on the ground. Areas that are snowfree such as along the border will get much warmer through the coming days, on Sunday high temperatures could get as warm as 15C in the southwest corner of the province . Low temperatures will drop into the mid minus single digits in snow covered areas, to about slightly above freezing in the snow free areas.



Rainfall on Monday Night

Cloud and showers
High's 3 to 5C

Into the day Monday warm temperatures will continue to be in place with high temperatures in the mid plus single digits in the red river valley into the interlake, models are showing temperatures possibly getting up to or near ten Celsius west of and south of Winnipeg even where snow pack is still in place.  Cloud cover and showers are possible out in Westman areas during the day, with the potential of increasing clouds elsewhere. Monday night cloudcover will stay in place ahead of an area of low pressure that will impact our area on Tuesday. Monday night could feature a band of freezing rain in the interlakes, snow or rain out in Westman and rain in the Red River Valley. There are model differences at this time, but the best bet is that it will be a good rainmaker as temperatures stay above zero for most overnight.

Showers and Rain
High's 3 to 5C

The day Tuesday will be influenced by an area of low pressure bringing a narrow to widespread swath of rainfall across the south as it moves through the province, it will be the first rainfall that we have seen in a long time. Amounts shouldn't be too high, best bet probably about 2 to 5mm. It should exit the province around mid to late afternoon. Elsewhere in southwestern Manitoba it should become fairly sunny by noon, high temperatures from 3 to 5C across the board. Low temperatures in the low minus single digits near zero degrees for most.

Sunny High's 3 to 8C

Wednesday will be a brighter and sunnier day, some differences on guidance models at this time on temperatures, some say we could see daytime highs below freezing while others say we could get above freezing on Wednesday and Thursday. Considering how warm we will get over the coming days and because I am so optimistic we will probably see high temperatures slightly above zero to near 5C. Overnight lows on Wednesday will get to the mid minus single digits.

Long Range

10 to 15C possible along the Canadian Border in the Southern and Western RRV including SW MB on Sunday Next Week

850MB Temperature Anomaly Saturday March 12th

Saturday March 12th Temperatures

CPC 6 to 10 day Temperature outlook

CPC 8 to 14 day temperature outlook.

CFSV2 Temperature Outlook to March 18th

Based on long range weather models and the latest 850mb temperature maps, it looks like the melt will continue as temperatures continue to stay above freezing for daytime highs and this pattern stays in place, it looks likely that temperatures could very well get into the double digits once our snowpack disappears as it has already been 17C in Regina and 21C in Bismarck on Saturday. The warm air is just sitting off to our south and west so it won't be long if we keep eating away at the snowpack, our snowpack will likely be gone in a week or two if we keep getting this warm weather. Also we have a likelihood of seeing multiple low pressure systems go through our area over the coming weeks (responsible for the warm weather) which could result in multiple chances for rain. It's just a matter of time before it's all gone. In case you are interested please do not follow accuweather's outlooks, they have a bad reputation for poor accuracy as quoted by Brandon Houck and they are based in Pennsylvania. They are saying minus single digit high's returning late March, and lows in the minus double digits. Very unlikely as our snowpack will likely be all gone by then.

Seasonal Temperatures Finally Return (Information Compiled by Rob's Blog, A Weather Moment, and Environment Canada.

*No Copyright Intended*

It has been a very cold past couple of days here in Southern Manitoba thanks to a arctic airmass that was in place, that has now cleared out allowing for seasonal temperatures to return. It is a welcome return. However as we approach the weekend our weather could become more active as warmer and more above seasonal air starts moving into our area.

Chance of flurries and sun.
High -5 to -10C

The rest of the day today will offer light winds for most and some cloudy skies and flurries off into the southwestern areas of the Red River Valley into Westman and the riding mountain areas, clearer skies will be in place elsewhere. The flurries are in part due to a system sliding through in North Dakota. High temperatures will be in the mid minus single digits for most with a high of minus five in Brandon, Dauphin will have a high of minus nine. Winnipeg will be closer to minus ten, with a high of minus eight. Bissett and Gimli will be inbetween minus five and minus eight.


Chance of Flurries
Lows -23C to -17C.

Tonight a chance of flurries will linger in areas of Westman, Southwest Red River Valley, and into the Riding Mountain areas. That should clear out by shortly after midnight, low temperatures will dip to minus eighteen in Winnipeg, minus twenty three in Bissett, minus seventeen in Brandon and Dauphin.



Increasing Clouds
High's -4 to -6

Thursday will be a bit of a sunnier of a day as an area of high pressure moves in from the northwest before cloudcover moves in later in the day as an area of low pressure approaches from the west. Winds will be light as well. High temperatures will be a bit warmer with high's instead of being around minus ten they will be closer to minus five. A few places to name Bissett will be sitting at minus six, Brandon at minus four, Winnipeg at minus six, and Dauphin at minus five.

Mainly Cloudy
Lows -12 to -20C

Thursday night should be a bit warmer with cloudcover and lows will only be getting into the mid minus teens and slightly above minus ten, a low of minus nine can be expected in Dauphin, minus eighteen in Gimli, minus twelve in Brandon, minus twenty in Bissett. Minus thirteen in Winnipeg.




Snow on the way for the day Friday, not much expected though. 2 to 4cm at least.

Snow Amount 2 to 4cm,
except for Northern regions.
Highs -1 to -6C.

Friday will be a different story an area of low pressure will move through areas of southern Manitoba through the morning to late afternoon and early evening, it will bring a swath of snow with it that will clear out by shortly after supper time. The bulk of it should fall before the noon hour. Amounts should be fairly light with about to 2 to 4cm expected. Areas in the northern interlake and towards Bissett will miss the snowfall, and will experience cloudy skies. Environment Canada is forecasting flurries for now, but I think that the light to moderate snowfall would be a better bet.
High temperatures will be in the mid minus single digits, Winnipeg about minus five celcius, Brandon about minus one, Dauphin minus six, Gimli minus one, and Bissett minus six.

Long Range: Mild Weather Returns As Predicted

Long Range models are continuing to show mild weather on the way for all of southern Manitoba into eastern Canada. There is barely any signs of a cooldown in the near future either.



850mb temperature anomaly Sunday March 6th




850MB Temperature Anomaly Tuesday March 8th




850MB Temperature Anomaly Wed March 9th

850MB Temperature Anomaly Thur March 10th

 

NAEFS 8 to 14 day outlook, showing above seasonal temperatures sticking around

 
 As I have been talking about all this time above seasonal weather is expected as their appears to be a major pattern shift on the way. The arctic airmass that was in place for weeks will finally move out of the area and won't come back anytime soon.  A ridge collapsing out on the west coast will allow for a more zonal flow to take place allowing for pacific air to rush in, as a result much of the country will benefit from warmer air. The pattern shift was also mentioned on TheWeatherChannel in the states.
As a result we will see temperatures above normal for this time of year, with high temperatures around zero to even above freezing through the weekend into next week. We may see a few days of temperatures below zero, but for the most part above zero. High temperatures at times may even approach ten degrees, yes you heard that right plus ten. Along with the warm March sun and highs above freezing our snowpack should quickly diminish. Normal high temperatures are now inbetween -5 and -10C, normal lows between -10C and -20C. Winnipeg's normal is now high -5C and Low -15C.

  Increased Precipitation Chances

Potential for rain on Monday Night,
with lows above freezing.

If you are interested the Jetstream will favour a trough on the west coast which will divert the stormtrack further south into California where the rain is desperately needed. The zonal flow in our country will also allow for an increased chances of rain and snow as the stormtrack is lined up straight west to east through us. In fact we may see some rainfall on Monday night changing over to snow on Tuesday but it should melt, it will be a stronger system that we haven't seen in a long time, but it will be something to watch for. Stay tuned for updates!