Let the melt begin!!

After several months of temperatures sitting below zero for daytime highs we are now welcomed with more springlike weather, it all begins on Sunday. High temperatures will soar into the mid single digits in much of southern Manitoba this week with some areas getting past ten degrees in snow free areas. A chance of rain will appear on Tuesday and Wednesday, before we return to sunnier weather and even warmer temperatures. All thanks to a major pattern change... Read on to find out how each day will turn out.






Surface Temperatures Overnight into Sunday

The night ahead tonight will feature winds gusting out of the south at 60km/h until about shortly after midnight, with the warming air coming in our temperatures will be rising to about the zero mark overnight ahead of an approaching low pressure system (above). This system will mark the change to warmer weather as a pacific airmass takes hold. Fog could develop as well overnight due to warmer air enveloping over the cold snow, it's already 3C in Portage La Prairie.

Sunny High's 3 to 7C

Into our day Sunday winds will be light out of the west and cloudcover will be minimal, that should get drier air in our area creating warmer temperatures for us. High temperatures will be above zero and in between 1 and 5C for areas that still have snowcover, areas such as the red river valley and Eastman still have plenty of snow on the ground. Areas that are snowfree such as along the border will get much warmer through the coming days, on Sunday high temperatures could get as warm as 15C in the southwest corner of the province . Low temperatures will drop into the mid minus single digits in snow covered areas, to about slightly above freezing in the snow free areas.



Rainfall on Monday Night

Cloud and showers
High's 3 to 5C

Into the day Monday warm temperatures will continue to be in place with high temperatures in the mid plus single digits in the red river valley into the interlake, models are showing temperatures possibly getting up to or near ten Celsius west of and south of Winnipeg even where snow pack is still in place.  Cloud cover and showers are possible out in Westman areas during the day, with the potential of increasing clouds elsewhere. Monday night cloudcover will stay in place ahead of an area of low pressure that will impact our area on Tuesday. Monday night could feature a band of freezing rain in the interlakes, snow or rain out in Westman and rain in the Red River Valley. There are model differences at this time, but the best bet is that it will be a good rainmaker as temperatures stay above zero for most overnight.

Showers and Rain
High's 3 to 5C

The day Tuesday will be influenced by an area of low pressure bringing a narrow to widespread swath of rainfall across the south as it moves through the province, it will be the first rainfall that we have seen in a long time. Amounts shouldn't be too high, best bet probably about 2 to 5mm. It should exit the province around mid to late afternoon. Elsewhere in southwestern Manitoba it should become fairly sunny by noon, high temperatures from 3 to 5C across the board. Low temperatures in the low minus single digits near zero degrees for most.

Sunny High's 3 to 8C

Wednesday will be a brighter and sunnier day, some differences on guidance models at this time on temperatures, some say we could see daytime highs below freezing while others say we could get above freezing on Wednesday and Thursday. Considering how warm we will get over the coming days and because I am so optimistic we will probably see high temperatures slightly above zero to near 5C. Overnight lows on Wednesday will get to the mid minus single digits.

Long Range

10 to 15C possible along the Canadian Border in the Southern and Western RRV including SW MB on Sunday Next Week

850MB Temperature Anomaly Saturday March 12th

Saturday March 12th Temperatures

CPC 6 to 10 day Temperature outlook

CPC 8 to 14 day temperature outlook.

CFSV2 Temperature Outlook to March 18th

Based on long range weather models and the latest 850mb temperature maps, it looks like the melt will continue as temperatures continue to stay above freezing for daytime highs and this pattern stays in place, it looks likely that temperatures could very well get into the double digits once our snowpack disappears as it has already been 17C in Regina and 21C in Bismarck on Saturday. The warm air is just sitting off to our south and west so it won't be long if we keep eating away at the snowpack, our snowpack will likely be gone in a week or two if we keep getting this warm weather. Also we have a likelihood of seeing multiple low pressure systems go through our area over the coming weeks (responsible for the warm weather) which could result in multiple chances for rain. It's just a matter of time before it's all gone. In case you are interested please do not follow accuweather's outlooks, they have a bad reputation for poor accuracy as quoted by Brandon Houck and they are based in Pennsylvania. They are saying minus single digit high's returning late March, and lows in the minus double digits. Very unlikely as our snowpack will likely be all gone by then.