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| Thunderstorms possible overnight on Monday |
The night ahead will be quite unsettled ahead of a approaching low pressure system there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the night in southwestern Manitoba as an area of rain moves in from northern North Dakota, ahead of the rain the Red River Valley will be a chance for thunderstorms to develop with a plume of 1,000J/kg MUCAPE through the overnight. Lift should be sufficient for storms to develop, current indications are that a line of showers will develop with thunderstorms embedded in them in eastern north Dakota into the portage la prairie area around 4am time. They will spread east northeast and strengthen into a line and likely impact the red river valley around sunrise. Or it will just be a rainmaker. Overnight lows tonight in the high single digits for the southwestern half of the province, and lows in the mid single digits for the parklands into the interlakes, red river valley and southeastern Manitoba. Winnipeg a low of about 5C.
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| Rain potential through the day Tuesday, this model shows the most rainfall amounts 25mm+ |
Looking ahead to the day Tuesday the thunderstorms will clear out in the early afternoon, replaced by rainfall in the day. Models are having a tough time deciding on the weather in the province, at the moment the GEM model is showing all rain in the Red River Valley, whereas the NAM and GFS are keeping the main rainfall east of the red river valley. However it does depend on where the rain's deformation zone takes place, if it moves further west there will be the good chance of seeing a very decent rainfall in Winnipeg and the red river valley. The consensus at the moment will be for a good soaking of rainfall for the day on Wednesday with amounts of 5 to 15mm, possibly even higher for the day on Tuesday in convection. Rain will change over to snow in the Red River Valley and eastern Manitoba and slowly drifting eastwards in the overnight timeframe, amounts will be from about 2 to 4cm for most. Not a lot of accumulations either. Lows will be in the low single digits near zero, so snow should melt.
Wednesday will have left over snow and flurries with cloudcover mixed in with sun, high temperatures will be in the low single digits and light winds out of the northwest. It will be a much drier day than Tuesday was. Clearing will take over on Wednesday night.
Long Range
It looks like we remain in a cooler weather pattern, with temperatures near to slightly below seasonal. Not as cold as what it could be due to the fact that our snowpack is pretty much gone. High temperatures will as a result stay near to slightly above zero or even closer to the mid single digits. Not a lot of warmth coming in like what we saw on the day Monday, until next month possibly.
UPDATE: The storm system I originally thought would exit today, however it took a while to become clearer on models. Now I expect that it will impact southern Manitoba especially the southeastern half of the province into the Red River Valley today into tonight. Expect a rain snow mix today before changing over to snow tonight for much of the region. There is a snowfall warning for the Sprague and Whiteshell areas where about 15cm is expected, areas further to the west can expect less amounts where I am forecasting about 5cm for the Winnipeg area and about 8cm into the Beausejour areas with 5 to 7cm expected south and north of Winnipeg. If you live in the Brandon area you will get 2cm to a trace onwards towards the red River Valley. Into areas such as the interlaces expect very little snowfall, there I am expecting flurries into the Dauphin area. Snow will exit the province tomorrow morning before tapering to flurries in the day. The snow will accumulate but will likely melt over the coming days due to the temperatures rising above zero but not even close to what we have been seeing as of late. We will not see any warmth like what we saw for quite a while yet. Overnight lows will be inbetween zero and minus ten. Long Range:
ReplyDeleteWe become more zonal next week leading to warmer temperatures and a chance for more rainfall or snowfall. Not much by any means though. Will have a blog post on the day Friday for details on our weekend.
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ReplyDeleteUpdate March 21st,2016. A clipper system is set to effect southern Manitoba tonight and tomorrow. Snowfall will be the heaviest out in the southwestern corner of the province where 10cm is expected there. A dusting will be likely as you go further north and south of those areas, including Winnipeg.
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