Potent Clipper System On The Way, Winters Last Snowfall???

 Hi everyone, Mike McGregor here. I am here to provide another weather update with details on the next system expected to impact southern and central Manitoba. 

Today: Sunny to partly cloudy skies are likely to continue with calm conditions continuing, temperatures today are in the low minus single digits with highs near zero. 

Tonight: Clear conditions are likely with temperatures in the low minus single digits in the southwest to temperatures in the low minus teens in eastern Manitoba with areas in the Lake Winnipeg area seeing lows in the minus 20's. 

Tuesday: As the low pressure system approaches cloudy skies are likely with some parts of the day having sunny periods. Temperatures in the low minus single digits are likely in portions of western Manitoba, areas in the rest of the south will reach the low plus side of single digits. 

Tuesday Night: The clipper system will begin moving into southern Manitoba, with rain mainly falling during the overnight timeframe from western Manitoba into the red river valley before the rain in the red river valley turns to snow and freezing rain during the morning hours. There is enough lift with this system to have thunder embedded within the rain and freezing rain. General non severe thunderstorms are possible during the overnight. The thing with this system is that it will be far enough north that the heaviest of the snow will be impacting central parts of Manitoba, there snow will begin during the late evening hours and will persist into the overnight timeframe. Snow and blowing snow with near zero visibility will occur in the interlakes and north interlakes region south of Thompson along a west to east line from swan river to bissett. Temperatures on Tuesday Night will likely drop only into the low minus single digits with the exception for southwest Manitoba where temperatures will remain above zero. 

Wednesday: The snow will then move into eastern sections of Manitoba during the latter half of the morning, snow and heavy snow will persist in the central parts of MB including Swan River to the interlake regions of Manitoba into the eastern regions. There is a chance for the system to wrap around enough that by late afternoon a batch of light flurries and or rain may form in southwestern Manitoba and the south central part of Manitoba. However the system looks to occlude/close off enough that clearing takes place during the afternoon in the south where high temperatures will rise into the mid single digits to near 10C. Areas further north will see highs in the low minus single digits. 

Wednesday Night: The eastern edge of the system will likely begin impacting parts of southern Manitoba with light snow and periods of blowing snow. No major accumulation is likely as it moves through. Overnight low temperatures will drop in the low minus single digits in southern Manitoba, with lows in the minus teens in the central part of Manitoba. 

Total Snowfall Accumulations,15-25 to 30cm likely in the interlakes and central Manitoba. 4 to 10mm of rain in the southwest and western red river valley. 4-8cm of snow in the red river valley with a trace to 2mm of rain and risk of freezing rain.  Graphic Below: (thanks to Justin Oretel For Posting this Graphic. 

 

Second Half of The Week: Cooler weather conditions are likely with calmer weather. Highs in the low single digits with lows in the minus single digits. A warmup will come by the weekend, high temperatures in the upper single digits are possible with highs in the low teens even possible according to ECMWF AIFS model.  

Warmer weather Conditions to arrive this week, spring on the way?

 Southern sections of Manitoba and the region as a whole will be getting a taste of spring as warm air moves in with a pacific flow a return to above seasonal temperatures is likely to arrive the second half of the week. The clipper system that impacted us was part of the transition, thanks to multiple areas of low pressure that will be sitting over the western prairies this week. Find out how warm it will get and for how long. 

Wednesday: Wednesday will be the first warm day of  the week , cloudy skies are likely with a risk of freezing drizzle in the morning with Flurries possible.. Temperatures rising into the low single plus side of the single digits. There’s a chance the southwest may see rain showers during the afternoon. Not really much in the way of melting can be expected during the day,areas in the central part of Manitoba and the interlakes can expect highs in the minus single digits. Overnight lows will drop into the low minus teens in southeastern Manitoba and the interlakes with lows  in the minus single digits in the southwest . 

Thursday: temperature is on Thursday will rise into the low single digits in the southeast to the highest single digits in the southwest there will be a chance that areas in the river Valley could reach highs between 2 and 6°C areas in southwest between 6 to 8°C. Temperature is on Thursday night will drop into the low minus single digits in the south central and southeast part of Manitoba areas of the southwest, however will likely see temperatures overnight in the low plus side of a single digits. 

Friday: Friday will be the warmest day of the week for the southern part of Manitoba end of the weekend what temperatures and some areas of the southwest reaching 10 to 12°CAreas of south eastern Manitoba will only see high temperatures between two and 4 to 6°C in some localities. Friday night looks like a mild night with much of the south seeing lows in the low single digits, the exception of the interlakes and  the parklands regions seeing lows in the low minus single digits. 

The Weekend: Temperatures will remain mild on Saturday with high temperatures on Saturday only reaching the low single digits in the extreme south with highs in the minus single digits in the interlakes and central Manitoba. The cold returns on Sunday into the start of the week with values in the minus single digits for day time highs and. Overnight lows in the minus teens. The cooldown will persist into the week next week. 

Strong Montana Low to Impact Southern Manitoba

 Hey folks I’m back with another weather blog update this time it’s about a strong Montana low that will impact southern Manitoba this Tuesday, looking like the worst of the system will be over by Thursday. Environment Canada already has warnings out for this system . 

Tuesday. The low pressure system will begin impacting western Manitoba with the possibility of freezing rain in areas of that region, there’s a chance that as the day persists some of that may come up to extreme southern portions of Manitoba up to the red river valley later in the day . Temperatures will be in the mid minus single digits remaining quite warm. Freezing rain will begin transitioning to snow after wards the supper timeframe 

Tuesday night: This is when the worst of the system looks to impact our region with the increasing chances of snow and blowing snow over our region, snow and blowing snow will begin impacting much of southern Manitoba . Wind gusts over southern Manitoba may exceed 60km/h at times especially over the red river valley . Temperatures will remain quite mild with overall values in the minus single digits. 

RDPS model run for snowfall totals 

Vs 

NAM Snowfall totals. 

Wednesday: Snow will persist into the second half of the day when it will begin slowly winding down in intensity by the evening hours. Highways will be likely treacherous or even closed down by the time this system is over with. Travel isn’t recommended, until snow crews can get out. Temperatures will remain mild in the south except for a portion of the riding and assesisppi mountains where highs in the minus teens in the lower range are possible . Travel isn’t recommended in these conditions. 

Snowfall Totals: Much of the region can expect between 15-25cm with most of the snow likely in a corridor west of Winnipeg seeing the highest amounts, with areas by Brandon and western regions expecting the highest amounts with some areas at risk of 30-35cm in the purple shown above. 

Wednesday night: Low pressure clears out as it does so a large area of arctic air will begin slowly moving in behind it. It will take a while to reach the southeast with areas of the rest of the province seeing temperatures in the low minus teens , especially in the interlakes and western Manitoba on Wednesday night. 

Second half of the week: Temperatures will continue to make a nose dive but slowly as the arctic air takes a while to reach southern Manitoba especially the southeast. Minus teens temperatures may not be felt in the southeast until Friday afternoon. 

I’m back!! Warm weather stays in southern Manitoba after deep freeze.

 Hello everyone welcome I’m back with your weekly weather blog updates, it looks like it’s going to be an interesting week ahead weatherwise what temperature is on the upswing well have details about it in this week’s weather blog. 

Monday: Monday will be a day with mainland, cloudy skies with the presence of a low pressure system over a region. Temperatures on the day Monday will be in the lower single digits areas south of Highway one temperatures will remain a degree or two above zero, what areas north of that will see temperatures in the lower minus single digits.  There will be a chance for flurries in the early morning hours behind it. An Arctic air mass will slightly infiltrate our region however temperatures will remain warm. Overnight low temperatures on Monday night will be in the upper minus single digits between -10 to -5°C. Most of the snow that is forecast will be in northern Manitoba as southern Manitoba remains in the warm sector 

Tuesday:

Behind the low pressure system on Tuesday afternoon temperatures will be a little bit cooler than they were on Monday with sunny skies, likely in the afternoon hours and temperatures in the lower - minus single digits with areas in the Interlakes in the upper minus digits closer to -10°. Tuesday night cold Arctic arrow infiltrate our region in southeastern Manitoba specifically areas of western Manitoba remain quite mild with Lows in the low minus single digits between -4 and -6° areas in southeastern Manitoba will see low temperatures in the minus teens with some areas in the Interlakes in the -20s. 

Wednesday: another burst pacific air will be infiltrating on the Talbot on the day Wednesday with more cloud cover except for areas in extreme eastern Manitoba. You can thank the cold arctic air which infiltrated overnight as a result of Arctic high-pressure, which will begin moving off to our east on Wednesday, which will help with a southerly flow over our region. Temperatures will be in the low minus single digits between -3 and -6C. 

Second half of the week it looks like that mild pacific air will still continue infiltrating our region heading well into the weekend with temperatures, possibly on a couple of days reaching above 0°C there isn’t any sign of the Arctic air returning onto our region until next week in the middle of the week so it looks like there’s warm weather that we’ve been experiencing will persist and get out and enjoy it while you can! 

Colorado low system to impact southern Manitoba for Thanksgiving Weekend

 Hello folks I am back after not being able to write blogs over the last few months. It has been an interesting summer with sleeper setups, tornado events coming out of nowhere. Forecasts that were supposed to deliver potential for tornado events that never happened, there was concerns that SW MB one day this summer would have had dangerous storms. And this month flash flooding occcuring in Steinbach overnight with 125mm of rain in one night. And just 2 weeks ago a storm that we weren’t completely expecting formed over southern Manitoba SW of Winnipeg which turned into a strong storm complex that lasted well into NW Ontario . I will have a blog reviewing this summer coming up in the next few weeks. 

(Forecast wind speeds in southern Manitoba during the night into Monday) Potential exists for damaging winds on the Manitoba lakes. 

Anyways the Colorado low that has developed over the southern sections of the SW United States is moving up into southern Manitoba, southern Manitoba's story will be rain and wind. Areas of Northern Manitoba will be experiencing snow. As the system approaches a broad swath of rain will be moving into southeastern sections of Manitoba during the overnight time frame into Sunday morning. There will be a risk for a couple of rumbles of Thunder but the mean weather occurrence overnight will be mainly rain showers persisting into the morning hours. temperatures during the overnight time frame will be mainly in the low teens. 

On Sunday  as the Colorado low moves into the central region of the province, rain will be moving into central western Manitoba and the parklands region of western Manitoba during the afternoon. Some of it might be thunderstorms as it moves into the interlakes by late afternoon. There will be a line of showers and potential weak thundershowers developing by the late afternoon in southern Manitoba as the cold front moves through. Temperatures will rise into the mid to high teens in areas of the south, up to the interlakes. Rainfall totals of 25 to 50mm are possible in the parklands where Rainfall warnings are in place. 

Sunday night winds will increase over a large portion of southern Manitoba with gusts continuing to reach 90 to 95km an hour in areas of the interlakes further south gusts from 60 to 80 are possible for a large section of southern sections of the province. there is concerns that areas of the central interlakes up into far northern sections of Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba may see wind gusts up to 100km an hour or higher. Temperatures for the evening will drop into the low single digits. a majority of southern Manitoba will see winds from 50 to 60km an hour with gusts up to 90km an hour during the overnight time frame we will keep you updated on the weather centre of Manitoba about any alerts that get posted in regards to the winds. There also will be a area of snow that will develop in areas that see rain in central Manitoba on sunday night. This will not impact any parts of southern Manitoba. The good news is that the snow that does fall in this area should melt. Areas from Melita northeast into Swan River will see this as it moves northeast into areas of the far northern interlakes. 

Some unfortunate news however to start the week temperatures will likely only reach the mid to high single digits, during the day on Monday and overnight low temperatures to start the week will drop into the upper minus single digits which is literally the warmest that we could go for overnight lows. Upper single digits are usually warmer lower single digits are usually colder.. A return to more normal temperatures are likely by the middle to later half of the week . 

Updates about The Forecasting Conundrum Were In

 Everyone, I just wanted to inform you I apologize for the lack of weather posts this summer and this fall. It has been an incredibly difficult year for forecasting, not only for the United States but also for Canadians one of the things that I’ve noticed is the increased lack of accuracy with weather models, including high resolution convection allowing models one of the main problems I’ve come across is every single convector model over the last few months has shown a different output resolution for storms in Manitoba as well. 

There has been completely different outcomes with each model run and is because of the Trump administration in the United States cutting access to funding for meteorologists and firing staff in NWS offices, to launch Weather balloons. Computer model data has also significantly deteriorated in terms of quality therefore focus accuracy has gone down the gutter this year. I cannot confidently forecast to the level that I did last year at this point when it comes to forecasting storms even today all the weather models were hinting at thunderstorms, developing in the red river Valley and Southern Manitoba, today they developed along the American border and even at this moment, the model is suggesting thunderstorms impacting Winnipeg with upwards of 30 to 40 mm of rain and that seems to not be the case at all based on current radar data. I am looking forward to the full months and creating forecast for winter storms, but it has been incredibly difficult year for forecasting thunderstorms. Also we have had a couple of sleeper set ups where not a lot of models are suggesting storms happening and they pop up out of know where along the frontal system that moves into the province at this point I have to find some ways to Find more meaningful forecasting opportunities for next summer.   As for the administration in the United States I don’t think they will make any changes to the situation in United States are Weather offices, and this is contributing to the current problem with forecasting solutions. Find out more what I mean here: https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/weather-balloons-stop-trump-cuts-forecasts-less-accurate-rcna198055

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2025-04-17/californias-national-weather-service-offices-reduce-services-amid-trump-admin-cuts

Showers and Thunderstorms likely tonight

 Southern Manitoba will be likely getting severe weather this evening and overnight as another round of severe storms is possible, thanks to another low pressure system moving into the region from eastern Saskatchewan. 

Photos of the HRRR model run with thunderstorms impacting our region tonight. App is Weather front. you can get it on the App Store , model data is available as well.

Above: Severe weather risk map as shown by Environment Canada for this afternoon evening.

Below: Severe weather risk map from Environment Canada for tonight. 

I write this blog at 4:46 PM. There is a small cluster of thunderstorms by Portage La Prairie and Elie, which may make it swing to Winnipeg by around 6 PM. These storms will be the first round, before another round comes in tonight. Feel free to read on for information about tonight’s severe weather threat . 

Ahead of this low pressure system temperatures are likely to skyrocket well into the upper 20s in southeastern Manitoba and south Central regions were as areas of south western Manitoba into south eastern Saskatchewan will see high temperatures later today. Reach the low mid 30s with huge ex values corresponding higher in the mid upper 30s in south western Manitoba and mid 30s in the southeast part of Manitoba. Currently a large swath of 3000-5000 J per kilogram cape is positioned in extreme south eastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba with the swath of instability moving into southern Manitoba towards the middle to latter evening hours. Along with this supercell composite values between 4 to 10 are in place for a large portion of southwest, which will increase the overall shear available for thunderstorms once they develop. One of my main concerns is the storm relative helicity available for all thunderstorms in southwestern Manitoba between 200 to 500 m/s squared. 

There will be no shortage of moisture in Southern Manitoba dew points you clean 15 to 25°C with a higher view point and southwestern Manitoba as the front encounters, the moisture shear and instability there will be an increased risk for super cells developing this evening in southwestern Manitoba. The best threat right now for tornadoes is in the tornado watch area, which includes areas south of Dauphin to the American border. During the evening hours from 5-9pm risk for tornadoes during the initial phase of development with hail the size of baseballs and upwards of 50 to 75 mm of rain in storms. If these storms can congeal into a line depending on how far east they make it there could be a risk for the severe Weather area to move as far east as Winnipeg and Beauséjour, and the beaches area. It appears the main risk area for these dangerous storms will be in Western Manitoba from Saskatchewan border as far east, as the white shell with a marginal risk expected as you go further east however, areas of the interlakes and western Parklands will likely experience the brunt of the system, I have attached some photos of the simulated radar imagery for this evening. It appears that the storm system and storm threat is significant enough that Reed Timmer is highlighting the concern in his post normally he doesn’t talk about Canada. 

Showers and thunderstorms will likely persist during overnight timeframe and will clear during warning hours another round if possible and settle. Weather is likely tomorrow afternoon as the cold front goes in, but the atmosphere may have a hard time recovering from the storms overnight so if storms do fire tomorrow, they end up being non severe in nature. Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid teens as thunderstorms impact most folks before a rebound to the upper teens in the morning hours. Thursday : expects a risk for unsettled weather during the early afternoon hours as the front passes the region behind it sunny skies are forecast with temperatures in the low 20s with the exception of southwestern Manitoba in the 20s under a dryer cooler air mass. 

Risk for showers and unsettled weather,  thunderstorms are not likely however a northerly flow will establish cooler temperature of pattern on Friday with highs only in low 20s and overnight lows in the low teens. It looks like Southern sections Manitoba on Friday and Friday night, will allow enough warm air moving over the Manitoba Lakes to produce some lake affect showers that will persist into early Saturday. 

On Friday night expect temperature is to be in the low teens and daytime highs on the day Saturday in the upper teens and low 20s .