Severe thunderstorm threat returns to southern Manitoba, cooler and calmer weather to follow.

Hi everyone my posting has kind of been lacking this summer given my busyness and I recently moved into my own place with lots of things to keep busy with and the weather has been quiet so I haven't posted much.it fairly quiet summer in regards to thunderstorm potential over the Canadian Prairies provinces however that does look to change this week on Monday another low pressure system will be moving across the Prairie provinces into southern Manitoba bringing another round of potential severe thunderstorms. We last had our significant severe weather event on July 29th I unfortunately did not get a post out about this event and then earlier in July we had a tornado which touched down inside city limits. Find out more about Monday's severe weather potential in todays weather blog

Overnight it looks like southern Manitoba could have the potential for some thunderstorm activity Drifting in from southeastern Saskatchewan into southwestern Manitoba some of these thunderstorms could be severe with hail up to the size of Toonies or golf balls. These storms will weaken as the morning approaches. With overnight low temperatures getting into the upper teens in the Southwest and mid teens in the Southeast.

HRW WRF ARW Model hinting at severe storms in south central Manitoba during Monday Evening.

RRFS Model hinting at severe storms developing in the parklands and then developing further south, this is one possible outcome. 

The NAM 3Km is showing storms forming west of Winnipeg and then congealing into a line of storms come the evening hours. 

Monday should be an interesting day weather wise a cold front will be moving into southern sections Manitoba during the afternoon hours and evening, ahead of it temperatures will be rising into the upper 20s and potential low 30s for some regions. There is a possibility that some areas will see temperatures and humidex values range into the upper 30s. Combine this together there will be upwards of 2000 to 3000 joules per kilogram of CAPE, bulk sheer of 30 to 40 knots, Dew point temperatures in the upper teens to low 20s, Ehi values of 2 to 3, . What this will equate to is a threat for severe thunderstorms in South central Manitoba including Winnipeg Steinbeck, Gimli Stonewall, Portage la Prairie, Winkler, West central Manitoba including the parklands, the Interlakes and eastern Manitoba. Based off of model data it could be that storms fire in western Manitoba and then gradually fill in further south based off of the RRFS model. There is also the NAM 3km model which is suggesting storms develop West of Winnipeg and impact the Red River Valley into eastern Manitoba, one of the high resolution CAM models is suggesting storms will develop in the Red River Valley.. And then there is the regular weather models which are suggesting storms only will be impacting northwestern Ontario That is an outlier at this point given the position of the front and the Area of instability present ahead of the front suggests that Manitoba will be mainly under the gun. There is an odd chance though that Manitoba misses out completely on storms and northwestern Ontario gets them I think this is highly unlikely at this moment given the GFS, the ECMW and the high resolution models are suggesting storms in southern Manitoba. There is a risk for hail up to the size of golf balls, Wind gusts up to with 90 or 100km an hour, and there is an isolated tornado threat as well with rainfall rates of 50 to 75mm an hour. Storms originally maybe multi cell or individual supercell thunderstorms which will congeal into a line moving east in the evening hours into northwestern Ontario after sunset.

Storms should clear by the evening hours with temperatures cooling down behind the front. Temperatures on Monday night will drop into the upper teens with a few areas hovering around 20 degrees Celsius. Tuesday will bring a renewed threat for showers and scattered thunderstorms they will be non severe however as the low pressure system sits over S central Manitoba with only temperatures rising into the upper teens and low 20s. the rest of the week should be much calmer with temperatures in the Low to mid 20s Overnight lows should be in the low teens to mid teens with some areas during the week dropping below 10 degrees Celsius.

Active weekend on the way to Manitoba

Well another weekend of active weather is set to impact southern Manitoba this weekend, thanks to a large trough setting up over western Canada and a ridge developing over the eastern united states. Inbetween that a strong jetstream is set to establish itself over the prairies bringing with it areas of low pressure and instability and rounds of severe weather. Details about this is on the way in today's weather blog. 

Saturday Night: Tonight a large swath of showers and thunderstorms will develop in Montana, NW North Dakota and SE Saskatchewan with MUCAPE values of 2,000-3,000K/Kg and Storm relative helicity of 200-300 it should support thunderstorms with the potential for severe thunderstorms. The tornado threat appears to be in SE Saskatchewan, not in Manitoba. As a result of the instability a line of thunderstorms looks to develop and move east northeast through the evening and overnight hours, making it's way into SW Manitoba shortly after midnight. As the storms move through the potential is there for wind gusts up to 100-110km/h, and hail up to the size of golf balls. Storms may weaken as they move east,northeast throughout the night. Temperatures overnight will drop into the upper teens.

Sunday (Above): Another day of interesting weather is forecast for our region, a warm front will be sitting over southern sections of Manitoba and a cold front sitting over eastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba. As a result of this setup a large area of dewpoint temperatures in the mid to high 20's is forecast allowing CAPE levels to rise into the 1000 to 2000 range (Thunderstorm energy), with EHI levels of 2-3. As a result expect thunderstorms to possibly develop in SW MB and the western parklands, there also is a chance for some thunderstorms to form in the red river valley, eastern Manitoba but lower. Some of the storms that form may be severe with hail up to the size of golf balls or larger, wind gusts up to 110km/h, 75-100mm of rain and a tornado threat. This threat is conditional on clearing happening, if it doesn't clear storms may not likely have the neccessary environment to develop. Expect thunderstorms to clear by late evening and lift northeast into central parts of Manitoba. Temperatures will drop only in the upper teens for a majority of the region. 

Monday (Above): The attention turns to southeastern Manitoba as the center of the low pressure system sits over North Dakota and lifts north into southern Manitoba by evening. Temperatures will reach the mid to high 20's in southeast Manitoba, where the west will sit in the high teens and low 20's. Dewpoints in the low 20's are possible in eastern Manitoba. What this will do is allow for moisture to advect north into southeastern Manitoba with upwards of 2,000 to 3,500 J/Kg, SRH values of 400 to 800 are possible in southcentral and southeastern Manitoba, EHI values of 6 to 10 are possible. What this all means is that storms will likely develop in North Dakota during the afternoon and will move north into south central and southeastern Manitoba, there will be a risk for supercells with the possibility of hail up to the size of baseballs, heavy rain in excess of 75-100mm, tornado or 2 is possible with the storms that develop. They may move northeast into eastern Manitoba come later in the evening. We at the weather centre of Manitoba will update you as the day gets closer. Both the NAM and the RRFS have convection moving through the red river valley on Monday. 

Storm totals will vary from 50 80mm of rain in the western portions of Manitoba and the parklands in Swan River, Areas of the Red River valley From Winnipeg West to Portage La Prairie may see 50 to 75mm of rain elsewhere a general 20 to 45mm of rain is expected.

A brief cooldown is possible during the first half of the week with temperatures in the low 20's before another heatwave kicks in during the second half of the week with highs in the upper 20's and low 30's. Environment Canada has already hinted at signs of a heat wave in there latest forecast discussion. 

Severe Thunderstorm Threat Likely in Manitoba today

 Hi everyone, I have an update on the severe weather threat, which is likely to impact southern Manitoba this afternoon evening and overnight time frame. A strong low pressure system is going to be impacting in southern sections of the province bringing with it increase levels of moisture, humidity, and instability. The end result of this will turn out not to be the best for some. Find out the details of where, and when the worst of the weather will occur

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Today: I’ll try and keep things simple for today’s outlook. Today’s Southern Manitoba is under the gun for significant thunderstorms as a result of temperatures reaching the low 30s and high 30s with the heat index. A warm front will be moving into southern Manitoba, bringing in instability values quite significant for this time of year . Most unstable CAPE values will rise into the 3000 J per kilogram range to 4000 J per kilogram range in some areas of the SW parts of Manitoba, by this evening, energy helicity values will rise into the 5 to 12 levels. With all of this combined and dewpoint temperatures reaching the 20s this afternoon. Overall, with all the ingredients in place, we have ample thunderstorm, energy, shear, twisting in the atmosphere for super cells, humidity, and a cold front and warm front as the trigger we will be looking at a significant risk for thunderstorms, which will be severe This afternoon, a risk of discreet super cell thunderstorms with the capacity to bring in hail up to baseball size, rainfall rates up to 30-50mm or more , and tornadoes. This risk is possible in southeastern Manitoba and the red River Valley and southwestern Manitoba along a warm front as it lifts north. As the evening progresses, a dry line will advance east through Northwestern, North Dakota and southwestern Manitoba ahead of this a line of super south thunderstorms will likely develop forming into a squall line which will impact a majority of southern sections of Manitoba during the evening and overnight hours. An extreme risk for severe weather is possible in In areas from Brandon East to Winnipeg with the eastern half of Winnipeg to the Ontario border in a high risk for severe weather. With this squall line expect wind gust up to 130 km an hour, hail up to the size of golf balls are larger, and heavy rain rates of 50 to 75 mm/h. It is possible that this event may classify as a Derecho. 

Tomorrow, much of the same as in the forecast for southern sections of Manitoba and eastern portions of the province, with a lower risk of severe thunderstorms and a non-organized threat for scattered showers and scattered thunderstorms. Less instability will be in play for the day on Wednesday. 

Much cooler conditions are forecast for the second half of the week with temperatures reaching the teens for daytime highs and low 20s. Overnight lows in the upper single digits or low teens.

Severe Weather Returns to southern Manitoba, June starts off with a boom

Southern Manitoba is in line for a round of severe weather and this is the first of the summer season, an area of low pressure is expected to impact southern Manitoba today, all well temperatures are expected to rise into the 20s. This will signal a start of a potential unsettled weather pattern Find out more in this week's blog.

Today:

Southern Manitoba will be under hot humid air mass this afternoon and evening ahead of a frontal system, temperatures today will rise into the low twenties in southwestern Manitoba with areas of south central and south eastern Manitoba rising into the high twenties, with humidex values in the mid to high 30's. Of note today will be the rising instability numbers in southern Manitoba with CAPE values in the 2,000 to 3,000 J/Kg range (thunderstorm energy), supercell composite values of 2-10 in southwestern Manitoba, and EHI of 2-8, and bulk shear of 40-80 knots and finally dewpoints of 15-20C will be in place allowing for sufficient moisture for thunderstorm development. Based on this data, thunderstorms will be developing in southwestern Manitoba during the afternoon hours with supercells the primary risk from an area by Melita and extreme southwestern Manitoba into the portage la prairie region. We cannot narrow down exactly where they will form however when they do impact an area they will bring a risk for 100-130km/h winds, ping pong to golf ball size hail, 30-50mm of rain and a risk of a tornado or 2.  Convection will then congeal into a line of severe storms in the western half of Manitoba as they organize, gradually moving east northeast into the red river valley and eastern Manitoba where they will weaken the further east they go with areas of the red river valley seeing a chance at 90-110km/h winds, nickel to ping pong ball size hail and 30-50mm of rain. Storms may persist into the overnight in the eastern half of Manitoba where they will be non severe. 

I have attached simulated radar images below of the storms between 5pm-10pm.

Tonight: Storms will clear and there will be a chance at remaining showers and storms may move up into the red river valley but that will, be a low chance. Temperatures tonight will drop into the low teens in the western half of Manitoba and mid teens in south central and southeastern Manitoba. 

Wednesday: Sunny skies are likely during the first half of the day but a returning chance of showers and thunderstorms are possible during the second half of the day, as a frontal system moves through this threat will be in the red river valley and eastern Manitoba as the main instability axis sits over the region. Temperatures will rise into the low 20's in southwestern Manitoba and mid 20's in the southeast part of the region. Clear skies are likely in the overnight timeframe, with overnight low temperatures in the upper single digits in the parklands and the mid teens in south central Manitoba.

Second half of the week: much cooler temperatures are forecast for the second half of the week with temperatures reaching the upper teens to low 20s and overnight low temperatures in the low teens and upper single digits.Calmer weather conditions as a result of high pressure. It appears that we may be in line again for another round of heat as we get towards the weekend with another round of potential thunderstorms for our region on Sunday.

Heat Wave Persists Over Manitoba, small chances at showers and thunderstorms

It looks like southern Manitoba is locked in the middle of a heatwave and this is just the start of the stretch of hot weather, an omega block of high pressure has set up over the prairie provinces resulting in temperatures at times 15-20 degrees above normal, heat warnings are in place currently for much of Manitoba at the moment. There also is some instability forecast in southern Manitoba this weekend. Find out where the hottest of the weather is forecast. 

Above: Photo of the current omega block and jet stream making its way all the way up into northern Canada while sinking south over eastern Canada and western Canada. The heat is a result of this pattern we are currently stuck in.

Friday: Temperatures in the mid 30s across a large portion of southern manitoba. 

Humidity may be a little bit higher with values reaching the upper 30s But I don't see significant humidex values as a factor. by evening temperatures in southwestern Manitoba will be in the upper 20s. there is a small risk for pop up showers and thunderstorms in southwestern Manitoba during the afternoon and evening hours A small chance you might see a rumble of Thunder. This was the thunderstorm chances that was hinted at in the blog post title.

Friday night: Temperatures in the overnight time frame will actually not drop that much, our overnight low temperatures will be close to our normal daytime high temperatures for this time of year with majority of the regions seeing overnight lows in the upper teens and low 20s it'll be warmer the further east you go. The warmest of the overnight low temperatures look to be in eastern Manitoba where some areas may only drop to 22°C.

Above: A snapshot of some of the hottest temperatures forecast over southern Manitoba on the day Saturday with the NAM model, stay cool!!

Saturday: Saturday afternoon majority of the region will be seeing temperatures in the low to mid 30s areas of western Manitoba in the parklands may see temperatures in the upper 20s or low 30s. Humidex values during the afternoon will not be that significant with some regions may be seeing upper 30s compared to our normal average summer humidex in the 40s. Areas of Lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipeg may see temperatures in the mid 30s.

Saturday Night: Cooler Overnight lows are forecast for Saturday night with majority of the region seeing temperatures in the upper teens If you're over by the Manitoba lakes more than likely temperatures will drop with the cooler influence of the frozen lakes into the mid teens.

Sunday: Will be the last few days of the major heat with high temperature values in the upper 20's in western Manitoba, and low 30's in eastern Manitoba. The bulk of the heat on the day Sunday will be in the central and northern regions of Manitoba. The lakes areas again will feel cooler with the result of the ice cover in some locations. 

Sunday Night: There will be a chance for showers in southwestern Manitoba, during the overnight timeframe. There may be a rumble of thunder but the main unsettled weather will be in Montana and NW ND. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper teens there is a chance that ice covered areas will be cooler. 

First half of the week: There will be an increasing risk for showers and thunderstorms on Monday through Wednesday, some of which may be severe as a favourable environment develops for severe weather as a result of strong upper level support, moisture and a unstable environment with low pressure systems moving through. We will be watching this in future model runs and we will keep you in the loop, right now we cannot tell anyone where these storms will happen including Winnipeg, Brandon or any localities as it is too early to narrow down exact locales. Temperatures will be in the upper twenties to start the week. 

Warm Weather Returns and Spring will Fully Arrive. Good News for your start to the week.

 

Hey everyone, what an unusual spring we have had this season so far. This past week southern Manitoba experienced it's first sandstorm ever, our temperatures took a swing in to the 20's for the first time this season, and we have had flip flopping temperature patterns non stop from warm to cold, cold to warm. There was even snow in wasagaming this long weekend. Well I have some good news, that trend looks to end this week as we finally get into an upper pattern that allows for warmth to persist as high pressure moves off to our east shifting our winds to a southerly to southwesterly flow. Find Out more in this latest blog. 

Tuesday: Will be a generally calm and sunny day with a northerly flow still present allowing our temperatures to remain generally cooler than average for the day with high temperatures in the upper single digits in the east, with highs in the low teens around 10C for the red river valley with highs in the low to mid teens in the western part of Manitoba. A generally cool night will be on tap for the red river valley and eastern Manitoba with lows hovering in and around 0C some localities may drop into the low minus single digits, a risk of frost is possible in these areas. 

Wednesday: The winds should be out of the south during the morning hours with an improvement in the upper pattern that will favour the warmer weather starting in the afternoon, high temperatures in the teens are likely with areas of southwestern Manitoba possibly reaching highs near 20C. Unfortunately for those living along the lake shores of Lake Manitoba and Winnipeg will only see highs in the low teens, as the lakes are still partially frozen over. Overnight some clouds may drift in from saskatchewan with some leftover possible shower activity drifting through during the late evening and late night hours, none of this looks like it will be in the form of thunderstorms. Temperatures during the night will be in the upper single digits in southwest and south central MB with lows in the east possibly staying around or above 10C, the interlakes will unfortunately drop into the mid to low single digits.

Thursday: Will be the warmest day of the week so far with high temperatures reaching the upper teens and low 20's especially along the international border, there will be an area of instability in southwest Manitoba during the late afternoon and evening along a warm front that may bring a risk of thunderstorms in the western part of the province during the evening hours with a small chance that south central Manitoba will see something but doubtful for the east. I don't think this will move into eastern Manitoba most models are keeping it in the southwest part of the province and in North Dakota. We at the weather centre of Manitoba will update you if this changes as it is a few days out still. Overnight lows will drop into the low teens and upper single digits for most as we go into the overnight timeframe. 

Friday and the Weekend: Unsettled weather may be on tap with a chance for showers and  thunderstorms as a trough sits over our area, nothing will be rained out though there will be a chance of some sunny skies between these rainy periods. We will monitor this trend as it may persist into the week next week. Temperatures on Friday will be in the upper teens in the east and low teens in the west, overnight lows in the upper single digits are likely. Temperatures could hit the upper teens and low 20;s on Saturday and highs in the upper 20's on Sunday. We will keep you in the loop if things change between now and then. 

Winters Last Gasp?? It Better Be!! Potent Clipper System To Impact southern and central Manitoba

 A strong and potent low pressure system will be impacting southern and central Manitoba before another cooldown impacts our region, another batch of snow, rain and freezing rain can be expected over the next 24-48 hours. Find out when and where the worst of the weather will occur in my latest blog update.

Today: A batch of snow will be impacting the central and western portions of Manitoba as a trough sets up over NW Ontario, behind this trough is where the heaviest of snow looks to setup. Snow or heavy snow will be falling today over central Manitoba from Swan River to Dauphin to Bissett, highways are already closed in the parklands part of Manitoba. Snow will persist into the latter half of the day, there also is a risk for freezing rain in southern Manitoba this afternoon and evening. Temperatures today will be in the low minus single digits in western Manitoba, with temperatures in the lower single plus side of single digits in southern sections of Manitoba. 

Tonight: This evening the system will be developing stateside bringing with it another batch of rain which will likely transition into a freezing rain and rain snow mix as it moves through the red river valley, parts of southwestern Manitoba and eastern Manitoba. Snow will weaken but will persist further north in the interlakes and parts of the parklands. There will be a decent shot at some rain showers in southeastern Manitoba during the evening, then a transition to possible snow or freezing rain after midnight in south central Manitoba. Snow will likely impact areas of far eastern sections of southwestern manitoba, by Carberry or MacGregor possibly Brandon. Snow will persist into the morning hours for most of southern Manitoba, the heaviest band looks to setup over the red river valley. Freezing rain totals only 1-5mm, snowfall totals likely from 5 to 10cm in a corridor from Winkler, to Carman to Winnipeg NE to Beausejour and Bissett. I have attached a graphic below of possible snowfall totals. Snowfall amounts of 10 to 25cm is possible in West Central Manitoba and the western parklands, localized areas may see 30cm. Dauphin:15-20cm, Brandon: 1-5cm, Winnipeg: 5 to 10cm. Temperatures tonight will drop into the low minus single digits with areas of the west seeing lows close to minus ten. 

Friday: Periods of light snow will persist in the morning and afternoon into the evening for central parts of Manitoba, and the northern red river valley maybe just missing Winnipeg. Only 1 to 3cm will fall by the end of the day. Elsewhere cloudy skies are likely with high temperatures in the minus single digits below average for this time of year. 

Friday Night: The low pressure system should begin clearing out during the overnight by morning all of it should be in Northern Ontario, behind it mostly cloudy skies are likely in the east with partly cloudy skies in the west by morning. With overnight lows in the low minus single digits. 

The Weekend: Moderating Temperatures are likely with daytime high temperatures in the low single digits and low minus single digits during the overnight. Even warmer conditions are likely to start the week with high temperatures in the upper single digits and low teens.