I’m back!! Warm weather stays in southern Manitoba after deep freeze.

 Hello everyone welcome I’m back with your weekly weather blog updates, it looks like it’s going to be an interesting week ahead weatherwise what temperature is on the upswing well have details about it in this week’s weather blog. 

Monday: Monday will be a day with mainland, cloudy skies with the presence of a low pressure system over a region. Temperatures on the day Monday will be in the lower single digits areas south of Highway one temperatures will remain a degree or two above zero, what areas north of that will see temperatures in the lower minus single digits.  There will be a chance for flurries in the early morning hours behind it. An Arctic air mass will slightly infiltrate our region however temperatures will remain warm. Overnight low temperatures on Monday night will be in the upper minus single digits between -10 to -5°C. Most of the snow that is forecast will be in northern Manitoba as southern Manitoba remains in the warm sector 

Tuesday:

Behind the low pressure system on Tuesday afternoon temperatures will be a little bit cooler than they were on Monday with sunny skies, likely in the afternoon hours and temperatures in the lower - minus single digits with areas in the Interlakes in the upper minus digits closer to -10°. Tuesday night cold Arctic arrow infiltrate our region in southeastern Manitoba specifically areas of western Manitoba remain quite mild with Lows in the low minus single digits between -4 and -6° areas in southeastern Manitoba will see low temperatures in the minus teens with some areas in the Interlakes in the -20s. 

Wednesday: another burst pacific air will be infiltrating on the Talbot on the day Wednesday with more cloud cover except for areas in extreme eastern Manitoba. You can thank the cold arctic air which infiltrated overnight as a result of Arctic high-pressure, which will begin moving off to our east on Wednesday, which will help with a southerly flow over our region. Temperatures will be in the low minus single digits between -3 and -6C. 

Second half of the week it looks like that mild pacific air will still continue infiltrating our region heading well into the weekend with temperatures, possibly on a couple of days reaching above 0°C there isn’t any sign of the Arctic air returning onto our region until next week in the middle of the week so it looks like there’s warm weather that we’ve been experiencing will persist and get out and enjoy it while you can! 

Colorado low system to impact southern Manitoba for Thanksgiving Weekend

 Hello folks I am back after not being able to write blogs over the last few months. It has been an interesting summer with sleeper setups, tornado events coming out of nowhere. Forecasts that were supposed to deliver potential for tornado events that never happened, there was concerns that SW MB one day this summer would have had dangerous storms. And this month flash flooding occcuring in Steinbach overnight with 125mm of rain in one night. And just 2 weeks ago a storm that we weren’t completely expecting formed over southern Manitoba SW of Winnipeg which turned into a strong storm complex that lasted well into NW Ontario . I will have a blog reviewing this summer coming up in the next few weeks. 

(Forecast wind speeds in southern Manitoba during the night into Monday) Potential exists for damaging winds on the Manitoba lakes. 

Anyways the Colorado low that has developed over the southern sections of the SW United States is moving up into southern Manitoba, southern Manitoba's story will be rain and wind. Areas of Northern Manitoba will be experiencing snow. As the system approaches a broad swath of rain will be moving into southeastern sections of Manitoba during the overnight time frame into Sunday morning. There will be a risk for a couple of rumbles of Thunder but the mean weather occurrence overnight will be mainly rain showers persisting into the morning hours. temperatures during the overnight time frame will be mainly in the low teens. 

On Sunday  as the Colorado low moves into the central region of the province, rain will be moving into central western Manitoba and the parklands region of western Manitoba during the afternoon. Some of it might be thunderstorms as it moves into the interlakes by late afternoon. There will be a line of showers and potential weak thundershowers developing by the late afternoon in southern Manitoba as the cold front moves through. Temperatures will rise into the mid to high teens in areas of the south, up to the interlakes. Rainfall totals of 25 to 50mm are possible in the parklands where Rainfall warnings are in place. 

Sunday night winds will increase over a large portion of southern Manitoba with gusts continuing to reach 90 to 95km an hour in areas of the interlakes further south gusts from 60 to 80 are possible for a large section of southern sections of the province. there is concerns that areas of the central interlakes up into far northern sections of Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba may see wind gusts up to 100km an hour or higher. Temperatures for the evening will drop into the low single digits. a majority of southern Manitoba will see winds from 50 to 60km an hour with gusts up to 90km an hour during the overnight time frame we will keep you updated on the weather centre of Manitoba about any alerts that get posted in regards to the winds. There also will be a area of snow that will develop in areas that see rain in central Manitoba on sunday night. This will not impact any parts of southern Manitoba. The good news is that the snow that does fall in this area should melt. Areas from Melita northeast into Swan River will see this as it moves northeast into areas of the far northern interlakes. 

Some unfortunate news however to start the week temperatures will likely only reach the mid to high single digits, during the day on Monday and overnight low temperatures to start the week will drop into the upper minus single digits which is literally the warmest that we could go for overnight lows. Upper single digits are usually warmer lower single digits are usually colder.. A return to more normal temperatures are likely by the middle to later half of the week . 

Updates about The Forecasting Conundrum Were In

 Everyone, I just wanted to inform you I apologize for the lack of weather posts this summer and this fall. It has been an incredibly difficult year for forecasting, not only for the United States but also for Canadians one of the things that I’ve noticed is the increased lack of accuracy with weather models, including high resolution convection allowing models one of the main problems I’ve come across is every single convector model over the last few months has shown a different output resolution for storms in Manitoba as well. 

There has been completely different outcomes with each model run and is because of the Trump administration in the United States cutting access to funding for meteorologists and firing staff in NWS offices, to launch Weather balloons. Computer model data has also significantly deteriorated in terms of quality therefore focus accuracy has gone down the gutter this year. I cannot confidently forecast to the level that I did last year at this point when it comes to forecasting storms even today all the weather models were hinting at thunderstorms, developing in the red river Valley and Southern Manitoba, today they developed along the American border and even at this moment, the model is suggesting thunderstorms impacting Winnipeg with upwards of 30 to 40 mm of rain and that seems to not be the case at all based on current radar data. I am looking forward to the full months and creating forecast for winter storms, but it has been incredibly difficult year for forecasting thunderstorms. Also we have had a couple of sleeper set ups where not a lot of models are suggesting storms happening and they pop up out of know where along the frontal system that moves into the province at this point I have to find some ways to Find more meaningful forecasting opportunities for next summer.   As for the administration in the United States I don’t think they will make any changes to the situation in United States are Weather offices, and this is contributing to the current problem with forecasting solutions. Find out more what I mean here: https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/weather-balloons-stop-trump-cuts-forecasts-less-accurate-rcna198055

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2025-04-17/californias-national-weather-service-offices-reduce-services-amid-trump-admin-cuts

Showers and Thunderstorms likely tonight

 Southern Manitoba will be likely getting severe weather this evening and overnight as another round of severe storms is possible, thanks to another low pressure system moving into the region from eastern Saskatchewan. 

Photos of the HRRR model run with thunderstorms impacting our region tonight. App is Weather front. you can get it on the App Store , model data is available as well.

Above: Severe weather risk map as shown by Environment Canada for this afternoon evening.

Below: Severe weather risk map from Environment Canada for tonight. 

I write this blog at 4:46 PM. There is a small cluster of thunderstorms by Portage La Prairie and Elie, which may make it swing to Winnipeg by around 6 PM. These storms will be the first round, before another round comes in tonight. Feel free to read on for information about tonight’s severe weather threat . 

Ahead of this low pressure system temperatures are likely to skyrocket well into the upper 20s in southeastern Manitoba and south Central regions were as areas of south western Manitoba into south eastern Saskatchewan will see high temperatures later today. Reach the low mid 30s with huge ex values corresponding higher in the mid upper 30s in south western Manitoba and mid 30s in the southeast part of Manitoba. Currently a large swath of 3000-5000 J per kilogram cape is positioned in extreme south eastern Saskatchewan and Southwestern Manitoba with the swath of instability moving into southern Manitoba towards the middle to latter evening hours. Along with this supercell composite values between 4 to 10 are in place for a large portion of southwest, which will increase the overall shear available for thunderstorms once they develop. One of my main concerns is the storm relative helicity available for all thunderstorms in southwestern Manitoba between 200 to 500 m/s squared. 

There will be no shortage of moisture in Southern Manitoba dew points you clean 15 to 25°C with a higher view point and southwestern Manitoba as the front encounters, the moisture shear and instability there will be an increased risk for super cells developing this evening in southwestern Manitoba. The best threat right now for tornadoes is in the tornado watch area, which includes areas south of Dauphin to the American border. During the evening hours from 5-9pm risk for tornadoes during the initial phase of development with hail the size of baseballs and upwards of 50 to 75 mm of rain in storms. If these storms can congeal into a line depending on how far east they make it there could be a risk for the severe Weather area to move as far east as Winnipeg and Beauséjour, and the beaches area. It appears the main risk area for these dangerous storms will be in Western Manitoba from Saskatchewan border as far east, as the white shell with a marginal risk expected as you go further east however, areas of the interlakes and western Parklands will likely experience the brunt of the system, I have attached some photos of the simulated radar imagery for this evening. It appears that the storm system and storm threat is significant enough that Reed Timmer is highlighting the concern in his post normally he doesn’t talk about Canada. 

Showers and thunderstorms will likely persist during overnight timeframe and will clear during warning hours another round if possible and settle. Weather is likely tomorrow afternoon as the cold front goes in, but the atmosphere may have a hard time recovering from the storms overnight so if storms do fire tomorrow, they end up being non severe in nature. Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid teens as thunderstorms impact most folks before a rebound to the upper teens in the morning hours. Thursday : expects a risk for unsettled weather during the early afternoon hours as the front passes the region behind it sunny skies are forecast with temperatures in the low 20s with the exception of southwestern Manitoba in the 20s under a dryer cooler air mass. 

Risk for showers and unsettled weather,  thunderstorms are not likely however a northerly flow will establish cooler temperature of pattern on Friday with highs only in low 20s and overnight lows in the low teens. It looks like Southern sections Manitoba on Friday and Friday night, will allow enough warm air moving over the Manitoba Lakes to produce some lake affect showers that will persist into early Saturday. 

On Friday night expect temperature is to be in the low teens and daytime highs on the day Saturday in the upper teens and low 20s . 

Severe Weather Threat Returns to Southern Manitoba

Hey, what’s up everybody? I have an update on the weather situation in Southern Manitoba. We have an interesting next 24 to 48 hours on the way. Southern instructions in Manitoba is at risk of seeing some severe weather on the day Monday. A trough of low pressure is expected to approach our region.

Tornado threat on the day Monday for southern Manitoba shown  (Above). 

During the day Monday (Above) severe weather is possible in these regions simulated radar from high res models. There may be some residual showers from convection left over in southeastern Manitoba as that clears out temperature should skyrocket into the upper 20s. Dewpoint temperatures should rise into the upper teens and low 20s and it looks like sheer will rise into the 50 to 60 knot range towards the evening. Ahead of this General MUCAPE values look to exceed 2000 J per kilogram, with super cell composite values less than eight. All of this combined along with approaching upper level trough there will be a risk for scattered super cell thunderstorms with the potential for hail up to the size of golf balls, and an isolated risk of tornadoes . There is a chance that there may be a line of thunderstorms which develop further to the west earlier in the day. Areas at risk are from Portage La Prairie east to Winnipeg and NE to the Lake Winnipeg area.  It all depends on how the system evolves. Models have been fairly inconsistent this year however, look for a stormy evening in southeastern Manitoba. If nothing happens just know I was writing this to inform you all of the possibility of this type of weather happening. 

On Monday night, expect storms to clear out of the region. Then another increasing threat for storms as likely as another thunderstorm complex develops in south eastern Saskatchewan and Northwestern, North Dakota. This may turn into a  MCS complex, which will move north east through the late overnight timeframe into the morning hours. Models are kind of still inconsistent with the development and timing on the system forming. This will likely future a wind and rain threat with the last system in North Dakota giving wind gust up to 200 km an hour. I don’t think that this will be an occurrence with these storms maybe gusts  up to 100 at max. These storms will be known as ridge riders. They were likely be rainfall rates and after cause localized flash flooding Justin and I will monitor this situation on the early morning hours on Tuesday. 

Tuesday, I’m expecting thunderstorms persist throughout the early morning to late afternoon hours in the southeast part of Manitoba. This may change and I will update this information at the comment section. Mostly cloudy skies are likely in the day on Tuesday after thunderstorms clear. Temperatures on Tuesday will rise into the low to mid 20s except for areas in the southwest, which will be in the upper teens for most of the day by evening. All of southeastern Manitoba will be in the teens as a much cooler air mass comes in behind the front.

Much calmer weather conditions are likely on Wednesday.  With highs in the 20’s once again expected There is also a chance on Wednesday morning for another round of convection however, this is only showing on one model solution at the time.

Slight Risk of Severe Weather Arrives

 Southern Manitoba will be seeing a return to possible thunderstorms in the southeast part of Manitoba during the day Sunday. It has been a relatively quiet last couple of weeks in southeastern Manitoba, the west has been lighting up a lot lately. However that is about to change, as a low pressure system is set to impact areas of NE ND and NW MN. This same low is likely to set off some unsettled weather over the next 24 hours. 

(Above): NAM convection likely developing during the afternoon in SE MB. Potential for severe thunderstorms are there.

(Above): Thunderstorms which will likely be severe in the southeast may develop during the morning hours, before another round may develop in north Dakota by mid afternoon moving NE into the red river valley.) I will have a update in the morning with another photo above this updated.  

Sunday: An area of instability is likely over the extreme southeast in the morning hours, models earlier were showing robust convection developing in the southeast from Steinbach to the whiteshell areas with severe thunderstorms a possibility. That area of the province is in a slight risk. These thunderstorms will be quite potent, there is a risk of damaging winds, large hail. Flooding rains are likely in the areas that are impacted by these storms in the morning hours. Tornadoes however do not look likely. Based on latest convective models there will be another threat developing later in the day in the red river valley for severe thunderstorms however a marginal risk will exist in this area. My concern is that the NAM model has been showing relatively strong shear, so if storms happen they may rotate however Justin mentioned to me tornadoes arent as likely in our neck of the woods but higher in NW MN. However any storms that develop will have the potential to bring heavy rainfall, and large hail. Given that we will be on the backside of the low pressure system there may be some brief spin ups. Any thunderstorms that develop will likely move north and northeast quite quickly. I will know more specifics in the morning, but regardless this is going to be southeastern Manitobas turn at showers and storms. Temperatures in the afternoon will only rise into the upper teens and low 20's. There will also be some humidity mixed in as well. Thunderstorms will likely clear out by the late evening hours. 

The Week Ahead: Calmer Weather is likely with temperatures moderating in the teens and low 20's. There may be a few low pressure systems that move through during the week. 

Severe Weather Threat Returns to southern Manitoba. Weak Tornado threat Possible .

 Hello, what is up everybody? I have a forecast update and this one is going to be short and brief. We do have some severe weather on the way for southern Manitoba and a region, which will not only bring well needed rain for the wildfire situation, but it will also help Reduce our overall drought situation. Tomorrow expect temperatures across southern Manitoba will rise into the 20s. There will likely be increasing humidity out ahead of the area of low pressure off to our south. The day may start off with occasional rounds of showers and thunderstorms north of the main area of low pressure. If that happens temperatures may have a hard time reaching there day time highs clearing can be expected during the latter half of the afternoon. If we avoid the initial round of showers and thunderstorms, some of the Weather models are suggesting that areas of southeastern Manitoba may rise into the upper twenties and possibly low 30s where as the southwest will see highs in the teens, This is all dependent on initial convection. Regardless of whether this happens later in the day with the low pressure system moving into our region, there will be increasing upper level support for shear as well as instability we’re looking at CAPE from 1,000 to 1,500J/Kg and EHI of 1 to 5. This will not only increase the severe Weather potential, but there will be a higher likelihood that a couple of spin ups (tornado threat is possible in these areas)  could happen in areas of the red river valley and just along highway 1 east of Portage La Prairie with Winnipeg included in this risk map. See photo below for a look at one of the SKEW T Graphs near the YWG area. Expect multiple rounds of convection to develop later today before clearing around midnight. Rainfall totals could exceed 50mm in some areas, 

Temperatures behind the system will cool off into the teens during the overnight timeframe. The system will move off to the east behind bringing a cooler air mass with overnight low temperatures in the single digits in the southwest and low teens in the east . Also, there will be initial rounds of showers and thunderstorms during the late evening and early overnight timeframe, which may persist into the day on Friday.