Wild End to the Week Likely, first severe thunderstorm threat arriving for the season. Will This wet weather Continue?

 Hello folks of southern Manitoba, And Hello all loyal blog followers. I am back with an update on the weather for the end of the week. Yes you read that right there appears to be our first threat at severe weather over southern sections of Manitoba heading into our end of the week. To end the week we have large scale trapping over Western Canada which is allowing for the development of low pressure systems over the southern Prairie provinces. A wetter then average trend continues to be taking over our weather story for the second half of the week we will have details on everything you need to know about this. Starting off with a less traditional way of doing my blog posts I have attached a photo below of the total accumulated rainfall that is forecast by the ECMWF AI vs the NAM weather model and this is pretty interesting that it is showing a convective event a couple of days of in advance will have a little bit more about this below. 

. This weather blog will cover the forecast into the weekend and early next week...

I know I have lots to talk about but we're gonna start off with details on our weather for tonight,

Tonight: Much of southern sections in Manitoba will continue to see scattered showers especially areas in southeast Manitoba as a weak shortwave moves through into northwestern Ontario during the overnight. Cloudy skies are expected during the overnight with some clearing in south central and southwestern Manitoba. Temperatures during the overnight will more than likely stay above 10 degrees Celsius for portions of the red river valley and southeastern Manitoba with values between 10 and 12 degrees Celsius, areas further to the west under clear skies will likely see overnight values between 5 and 8 degrees Celsius. 

Thursday: Southern regions including Western Parklands area of Manitoba could be in for an interesting day on the day Thursday, a stationary front is forecast to stall out on the western side of Manitoba during the late afternoon. Based on current model consensus a majority of southern sections in Manitoba. The risk for showers and weak thunderstorms with the highest risk in western Manitoba, general CAPE values appear to be between 300 and 700 joules per kilogram the strongest signals for thunderstorms appear to develop over Western Manitoba and then the interlakes towards later in the day. Storms will be scattered in nature and they may bring a risk for small hail. Although environment canada is forecasting thunderstorms for all of southern Manitoba, I do not see a significant risk for severe weather. Temperatures during the afternoon will rise into the mid to high teens, with eastern Manitoba a bit cooler in the mid teens as a possibility. 

Thursday night: This is when the transition starts before and more active setup occurs on the day  Friday, a stationary front will remain over Western Manitoba where scattered showers or possible weak thunder showers will continue during the evening hours before weakening again I see the best risk area for thunderstorms off and on throughout southern Manitoba during the evening scattered and very localized in nature. Overnight on Thursday mostly cloudy skies are forecast with the exception of extreme southern Manitoba near the American border where clouds will likely clear towards the morning hours. The upper level flow will continue to be out of the southwest. Temperatures in the southwest will be remaining above or around 10 to 15 degrees celsius overnight areas further to the east will likely see overnight lows in the upper single digits.

Friday night (simulated radar above): This is when stronger jet stream upper level winds will enter southwestern Manitoba during the afternoon this will gradually move to the east throughout the day a strong southwesterly level flow will occur. For those wondering this is the weather event that prompted my title for the blog and I am actually not surprised considering that this is Manitoba we will be expecting our first round of severe thunderstorms possible on Friday and Friday evening. It appears that our temperatures on Friday will be a lot warmer compared to earlier in the week where our high values could soar into the high teens low 20s in some areas of the southwest and Red River valley could rise into the mid 20s during the afternoon with humidity values pushing the thirty degrees Celsius Mark . In regards to the details of this event are still being figured out in weather models there are still some specifics about the location and timing however current model runs now show a warm front just sitting south of the border during the afternoon which will lift N during the evening and as strong low pressure system also sit there which will draw in strong levels of moisture from the United States. If you're wondering what I mean about moisture I see our dew point temperatures rising into the mid teens in the Red River valley and eastern Manitoba which is more considered to be something you would see in mid June or early July, there will also be a increased level of Cape which is basically what provides thunderstorms to have fuel to run on. The levels will be between 1000 to 2000 joules per kilogram the latest NAM model at 18Z appears to show a stronger area of shear and instability just to the west of Winnipeg. Based on what I am seeing this could very well be our first decent chance of seeing strong to severe thunderstorms developing, however depending on the cap storms could either start developing in northwestern North Dakota traveling northeast into the Pembina and Red River valley areas into the Interlakes, there is also a likelihood of thunderstorms developing ahead of this along the warm front in the Red River valley and Interlakes. There is also a chance storms dont form at all with the cap in place. Overall this setup does favor strong to severe thunderstorms being a possibility over all areas of the Red River valley eastern Manitoba Interleakes with a slightly lower risk for western portions in Manitoba depending on the frontal position at the time. What this means is convection will likely develop in south central Manitoba or northwestern North Dakota but this is all dependent on a cap which may hinder storms from developing during the afternoon and evening hours we'll see if this setup changes by any means . There is also a very low chance of seeing tornadoes developing during the evening hours we will monitor this if there is any changes to this outlook but please make sure that you're able to stay tuned to alerts and warnings when possible could be something that needs watching. I will have a update on Twitter and on the weather centre of Manitoba in regards to this setup and the outcome on Friday afternoon there will also be a bit of information posted in the comments section which is something that will be done more as we approach what could be very well a busy storm season.

Friday night: It appears that if any thunderstorms form they will likely move into eastern Manitoba and northwestern Ontario during the overnight. With a possibility of more thunderstorms on the day Saturday specifically during the early morning hours as the cold frontal passes through. Temperatures actually will remain quite mild on Friday night with overnight low values in the mid teens. Areas a bit further to the West and the WestMan and Parkland regions will likely see overnight low values in and surprisingly quite cool for this time of year with values in the upper single digits. 

Saturday and Sunday: The weekend appears that it could actually be one of those cooler weather days especially Saturday where high temperatures will only rise into the low to mid teens, mostly cloudy skies are likely as you travel into the interlakes regions where high values will only be between five and 10 degrees Celsius. I do think the NAM model however is slightly inaccurate in forecasting values I do believe they will be a bit warmer considering some areas may see Sun during the afternoon which may help increase the level of daytime heating. The second half of the weekend should be much better with sunny skies forecast on Sunday and our high temperatures in the upper teens some areas may approach 20 degrees Celsius in regards to overnight low temperatures expect the average values of mid to high single digits with some areas seeing overnight lows around 10 degrees Celsius. However the cutoff for these temperatures appears to be over the Manitoba Lakes where the lakes water temperatures are still at least cooler or near average this time of year with shores along the lakes could be seeing temperatures between one and five degrees Celsius.

Showers and Thunderstorms Possible On Saturday, calmer weather to follow

Hello Manitobans This is another weather blog update for your weekend weather, We may have an interesting weekend ahead for weather southern sections of our province will be experiencing a many heat wave as a result of an incoming area of low pressure. This will make for the first of what is likely many days of summer weather ahead, There is a possibility of seeing our first decent chance of seeing scattered showers and thunderstorms find out more in this weekend's weather blog. 

Southern sections Manitoba will likely  see high temperatures on Saturday rising well into the 20s there is a possibility that areas specifically at the Red River Valley and southeastern Manitoba may see values between 25 and 30 degrees celsius this is dependent though on how much of a southerly flow we can draw in ahead of the low pressure system in the warm sector. The low pressure system that is impacting southern sections of Manitoba will move through during the late afternoon hours a general 500 to 800 joules per kilogram of Cape looks to be in place, initiation may take place depending on the timing of the fronts either in southeastern Manitoba or over the Manitoba Lakes. Some model runs had thunderstorms developing over the southern part of Lake Manitoba and moving through the Red River Valley newer model runs now are suggesting thunderstorms developing just to the east of Winnipeg. However Environment Canada still has a 60% chance of seeing showers with the risk of thunderstorms for areas of the Red River valley there is a possibility that areas further west in western Manitoba may also see thunderstorms developed during the afternoon instability along the fronts remains to be quite low however there will be a good chance regardless for some rural parts of the province to see scattered showers or thunderstorms mainly non severe nature. Environment Canada did mention that there is a possibility for a rogue severe wind gust or two however that does not look like it will be a significant concern for the afternoon with thunderstorms that develop.

Saturday night mainly with clear skies are forecast and a awesome overall temperature trend will likely continue with our overnight lows dropping into the low teens for areas of southeastern and south central Manitoba, a little bit further to the west areas in western Manitoba including the parklands maybe a bit cooler with overnight lows in the upper single digits.

Sunday: Beautiful sunny skies are forecast for a majority of our region and a little bit cooler though that is good because we had a little bit of a heat burst forecast on Saturday, General Lee high temperatures are forecast to be in the upper teens and low 20s. Generally areas north of highway one will only see high temperatures in the mid to high teens areas further north maybe closer to about 15 degrees. 

Sunday Night: Much of southern Manitoba is going to be experiencing a colder air mass on Sunday night with a majority of our lows actually dropping closer to the normal temperatures we see in April or March with lows between two to five or six degrees. The good news is that mainly clear skies are forecast during the overnight. 

Moran settled weather conditions are possible during the first half of the week with high temperatures continuing to remain seasonal mainly in the high teens and low 20s and overnight lows in the upper single digits and low teens, there is a possibility for more shower thunderstorm activity during Tuesday into Wednesday we will know more by the beginning of the week.

Warmer weather and sunnier conditions on the way, possible change to wetter conditions for the coming week

 Hello folks of southern Manitoba and those weather watchers in the southern part of the province we have an update on the weather for the weekend into early next week we'll see if we can add some information about the weather into the 2nd half of the week. On the heels of a low pressure system which impacted majority of southern Manitoba over the last couple of days is now moving into northwestern Ontario behind it a large area of high pressure will develop which will bring us slightly cooler temperatures to start the weekend however as we get into start the week it appears that we could have a return to warmer than normal conditions. Bottom line of beautiful weekend is more than likely to happen for us. In regards to the amount of rainfall that received areas west of Winnipeg received between 20 and thirty millimeters rain areas of southeastern Manitoba also picked up about 20 to twenty five millimeters of rain areas further north including the Interlakes only picked up about 10 to fifteen millimeters of rain and areas of the southwest also picked up similar amounts. I have attached three photos below with information on where the heaviest rainfall occurred from the CO CRAHS maps.

Saturday: High pressure looks to impact the majority of our region during the weekend specifically Saturday and Sunday could be some of the nicest days we've had in a long time, sunny skies are likely with high temperatures for majority of our region reaching the low teens and some areas may get close to the fifteen degrees celsius mark.

Saturday Night: Southern sections in Manitoba will be in a much cooler air mass on Saturday night as well mostly clear skies are likely however there is a possibility of fog patches developing in the Red River valley the good news is that this will not persist. There is also a low risk of frost for areas of The Western escarpment and areas around the Manitoba Lakes. Temperatures for a majority of the region will drop into the low to mid single digits.

Sunday: This will be one of the warmer days of the weekend and I'm actually kind of surprised with the latest model data suggesting high temperatures in the high teens for a majority of the our region especially if you're gonna be closer to the American border some areas could receive or at least get up to about twenty degrees Celsius this is something we have not seen in a couple weeks. The warmest of the weather is also likely to continue as we head into the week details on that below. 

Sunday Night: Overnight low temperatures will likely stay warmer again during the overnight. Sunday instead of seeing our little values drop closer to zero our low values will drop closer to the 10 degrees Celsius mark so that's a switch up from what we are forecast to see on Saturday night.

The week ahead: it looks like much of southern Manitoba will be in a warmer temperature pattern however a little pressure system is expected to impact southern Manitoba during the day on Tuesday through Thursday,  There is a possibility however that this system decides to move W further into Saskatchewan and Alberta there is a possibility that this may change depending on where the position sets up but a majority of the rain is likely to impact the Western prairies.We're still figuring out the details about this system. If the forecast changes and we get rain for our region during the week it'll be welcome news for our farmers.