Wild End to the Week Likely, first severe thunderstorm threat arriving for the season. Will This wet weather Continue?

 Hello folks of southern Manitoba, And Hello all loyal blog followers. I am back with an update on the weather for the end of the week. Yes you read that right there appears to be our first threat at severe weather over southern sections of Manitoba heading into our end of the week. To end the week we have large scale trapping over Western Canada which is allowing for the development of low pressure systems over the southern Prairie provinces. A wetter then average trend continues to be taking over our weather story for the second half of the week we will have details on everything you need to know about this. Starting off with a less traditional way of doing my blog posts I have attached a photo below of the total accumulated rainfall that is forecast by the ECMWF AI vs the NAM weather model and this is pretty interesting that it is showing a convective event a couple of days of in advance will have a little bit more about this below. 

. This weather blog will cover the forecast into the weekend and early next week...

I know I have lots to talk about but we're gonna start off with details on our weather for tonight,

Tonight: Much of southern sections in Manitoba will continue to see scattered showers especially areas in southeast Manitoba as a weak shortwave moves through into northwestern Ontario during the overnight. Cloudy skies are expected during the overnight with some clearing in south central and southwestern Manitoba. Temperatures during the overnight will more than likely stay above 10 degrees Celsius for portions of the red river valley and southeastern Manitoba with values between 10 and 12 degrees Celsius, areas further to the west under clear skies will likely see overnight values between 5 and 8 degrees Celsius. 

Thursday: Southern regions including Western Parklands area of Manitoba could be in for an interesting day on the day Thursday, a stationary front is forecast to stall out on the western side of Manitoba during the late afternoon. Based on current model consensus a majority of southern sections in Manitoba. The risk for showers and weak thunderstorms with the highest risk in western Manitoba, general CAPE values appear to be between 300 and 700 joules per kilogram the strongest signals for thunderstorms appear to develop over Western Manitoba and then the interlakes towards later in the day. Storms will be scattered in nature and they may bring a risk for small hail. Although environment canada is forecasting thunderstorms for all of southern Manitoba, I do not see a significant risk for severe weather. Temperatures during the afternoon will rise into the mid to high teens, with eastern Manitoba a bit cooler in the mid teens as a possibility. 

Thursday night: This is when the transition starts before and more active setup occurs on the day  Friday, a stationary front will remain over Western Manitoba where scattered showers or possible weak thunder showers will continue during the evening hours before weakening again I see the best risk area for thunderstorms off and on throughout southern Manitoba during the evening scattered and very localized in nature. Overnight on Thursday mostly cloudy skies are forecast with the exception of extreme southern Manitoba near the American border where clouds will likely clear towards the morning hours. The upper level flow will continue to be out of the southwest. Temperatures in the southwest will be remaining above or around 10 to 15 degrees celsius overnight areas further to the east will likely see overnight lows in the upper single digits.

Friday night (simulated radar above): This is when stronger jet stream upper level winds will enter southwestern Manitoba during the afternoon this will gradually move to the east throughout the day a strong southwesterly level flow will occur. For those wondering this is the weather event that prompted my title for the blog and I am actually not surprised considering that this is Manitoba we will be expecting our first round of severe thunderstorms possible on Friday and Friday evening. It appears that our temperatures on Friday will be a lot warmer compared to earlier in the week where our high values could soar into the high teens low 20s in some areas of the southwest and Red River valley could rise into the mid 20s during the afternoon with humidity values pushing the thirty degrees Celsius Mark . In regards to the details of this event are still being figured out in weather models there are still some specifics about the location and timing however current model runs now show a warm front just sitting south of the border during the afternoon which will lift N during the evening and as strong low pressure system also sit there which will draw in strong levels of moisture from the United States. If you're wondering what I mean about moisture I see our dew point temperatures rising into the mid teens in the Red River valley and eastern Manitoba which is more considered to be something you would see in mid June or early July, there will also be a increased level of Cape which is basically what provides thunderstorms to have fuel to run on. The levels will be between 1000 to 2000 joules per kilogram the latest NAM model at 18Z appears to show a stronger area of shear and instability just to the west of Winnipeg. Based on what I am seeing this could very well be our first decent chance of seeing strong to severe thunderstorms developing, however depending on the cap storms could either start developing in northwestern North Dakota traveling northeast into the Pembina and Red River valley areas into the Interlakes, there is also a likelihood of thunderstorms developing ahead of this along the warm front in the Red River valley and Interlakes. There is also a chance storms dont form at all with the cap in place. Overall this setup does favor strong to severe thunderstorms being a possibility over all areas of the Red River valley eastern Manitoba Interleakes with a slightly lower risk for western portions in Manitoba depending on the frontal position at the time. What this means is convection will likely develop in south central Manitoba or northwestern North Dakota but this is all dependent on a cap which may hinder storms from developing during the afternoon and evening hours we'll see if this setup changes by any means . There is also a very low chance of seeing tornadoes developing during the evening hours we will monitor this if there is any changes to this outlook but please make sure that you're able to stay tuned to alerts and warnings when possible could be something that needs watching. I will have a update on Twitter and on the weather centre of Manitoba in regards to this setup and the outcome on Friday afternoon there will also be a bit of information posted in the comments section which is something that will be done more as we approach what could be very well a busy storm season.

Friday night: It appears that if any thunderstorms form they will likely move into eastern Manitoba and northwestern Ontario during the overnight. With a possibility of more thunderstorms on the day Saturday specifically during the early morning hours as the cold frontal passes through. Temperatures actually will remain quite mild on Friday night with overnight low values in the mid teens. Areas a bit further to the West and the WestMan and Parkland regions will likely see overnight low values in and surprisingly quite cool for this time of year with values in the upper single digits. 

Saturday and Sunday: The weekend appears that it could actually be one of those cooler weather days especially Saturday where high temperatures will only rise into the low to mid teens, mostly cloudy skies are likely as you travel into the interlakes regions where high values will only be between five and 10 degrees Celsius. I do think the NAM model however is slightly inaccurate in forecasting values I do believe they will be a bit warmer considering some areas may see Sun during the afternoon which may help increase the level of daytime heating. The second half of the weekend should be much better with sunny skies forecast on Sunday and our high temperatures in the upper teens some areas may approach 20 degrees Celsius in regards to overnight low temperatures expect the average values of mid to high single digits with some areas seeing overnight lows around 10 degrees Celsius. However the cutoff for these temperatures appears to be over the Manitoba Lakes where the lakes water temperatures are still at least cooler or near average this time of year with shores along the lakes could be seeing temperatures between one and five degrees Celsius.