Winter Storm Likely This Week, risk for ice buildup and power outages.

 Hey everyone Mike McGregor here I haven't written a weather blog update here in a while, but Southern sections of Manitoba will be in crosshairs of a significant low pressure system, It developed in the Great Plains of the United States ahead of it a large area of moisture will be streaming North from the Gulf of Mexico however this moisture is not as pronounced as the summer months with dew points mainly well below the 40 degrees Fahrenheit Mark. Moisture content in the atmosphere however will be quite substantial for this area of low pressure. This is a potentially concerning event for the next 24 to 48 hours with the likelihood of seeing everything from rain to freezing rain and snow with heavy snow and blowing snow. Areas in western Manitoba will be bearing the brunt of this system whereas areas in eastern Manitoba will be experiencing a potential ice storm not in freezing rain but in rain that freezes after it falls.

Tuesday: Southern Manitoba get ready!! Roll up the curtains you are going to be experiencing a brutal wake-up call to winter, and I am sorry that we have to bring this news to you. Anyway during the morning on Tuesday just to the south of the border a broad swath of rain will likely begin to envelop the red river valley and the eastern half of Manitoba. Colder air will be wrapping around the western half of Manitoba by the early afternoon hours, snow and a mix of freezing rain will begin during the morning in the extreme southwestern half of the province. As the low itself Begins to move into the province a large area of snow will begin to move into western sections in Manitoba which will bring Intervals of heavy snow mixed with moderate to lighter snowfall. This is going to be the region to watch for the heaviest accumulations into the day Wednesday. There is a likelihood that areas of Western Manitoba experience whiteout conditions with heavy wet snow, the good thing about this is that heavy-wet snow has a less of a wind profile, so there will be less risk of blowing snow and white-out visibility unless you're in a very heavy band of snow. If you are heading out on the highways I would suggest that you avoid highway travel during the afternoon and early evening hours into the overnight into Wednesday. The weather on Tuesday will be fairly meager compared to with the night on Tuesday with the regards to the winds. 

 Attention then turns to southeastern Manitoba during the later half of the day when a fairly heavy amount of rain will have fallen, what concerns me is that models is suggesting a fairly rapid transition over to below normal or below zero temperatures which will then put the risk for a either flash freeze or a gradual freeze process. Rainfall totals in the Red River valley including eastern Manitoba may be upwards between 15 to twenty-five millimeters of rain with the possibility of 30 millimeters by the end of the day. Now given the fact that temperatures will possibly drop below zero during the overnight especially according to the high resolution rapid refresh model this could put Winnipeg and all of southeastern Manitoba at risk for ice accretion and ice build up which will put strain on the power grid. On top of that wet snow will occur during the overnight time frame into Wednesday morning in the eastern part of Manitoba which will add more strain to the power lines if things begin to freeze by morning. Other weather models are suggesting that the transition over to a below zero temperatures will not occur until morning regardless I am still concerned about rain freezing on surfaces so if you're out in the highways on Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning please drive slowly. The reason I'm not calling this an ice storm is because the rain will not be freezing on contact. Attention then turns to southwestern Manitoba on the day Wednesday. Temperatures during the day on Tuesday will be in the lower single digits with areas in southwestern Manitoba on the cooler side between 1 and 2 degrees Celsius whereas areas of southeastern Manitoba will be seeing high temperatures between 3 and 6 degrees Celsius. Temperatures during the overnight time frame generally will be in the minus one to minus three degrees Celsius mark in areas of western Manitoba just to the west of Winnipeg and then areas from about just west of Winnipeg to the Ontario border will see overnight low temperatures between 0C and 3 degrees Celsius with the possibility of these locations seeing values closer to the zero or freezing mark by the morning hours.

Wednesday: OK, so Wednesday is one of those going to be one of those days that a lot of people wish didn't come until December however we are still going to be experiencing a burst of winter weather with all of our region forecast region seeing snowfall continue. Winds will likely gust from 60 to 70 kilometers an hour with extreme wind gusts up to 80KILOMETERS an hour in some locales in western parts of the province. The areas of western Manitoba I'm concerned about, accumulations by the end of the day may reach the 40 to 50 centimeter mark especially in areas by moose mountain Manitoba and the Riding Mountain National Park. Areas of Portage La Prairie into the Winkler regions will likely see upwards of 30 to 35 centimeters of snow areas to the east will drop significantly between 10 and 30 centimeters to as low as 5 centimeters. If you are in any of these regions please refer to the forecast maps which I have posted above this paragraph I have shared the RDPS the NAM and the H Triple R Model run. Unfortunately areas of eastern Manitoba will miss out on the heavy snowfall with accumulation between 5 and 10 centimeters with the possibility of more falling by the end of the day. There is going to be a sharp temperature contrast on the day Wednesday if you put a marker on the map from Thompson Manitoba yes in the north draw it SE through the middle of the interlakes, down to Areas just north of Winnipeg and then again curve SW you're looking at a good split where the western half of Manitoba is below zero during the day Wednesday and areas of Lake Winnipeg including Winnipeg City and the rest of eastern Manitoba seeing high temperatures either around zero or slightly above zero regardless it is going to be a cold and brutal reality check for temperatures on the day Wednesday. 

Wednesday night into Thursday the storm itself will start beginning to wind down with scattered flurries likely over Western Manitoba and mostly cloudy skies likely in areas of eastern Manitoba if you're looking for that break in the unsettled weather the second half of the week is looking like your go to for outside activity. Temperatures on Wednesday night into Thursday will more than likely drop and this is not surprising considering a burst of Arctic air will be moving into the region which will basically put our temperatures for daytime highs on Thursday anywhere between minus one and minus three, in areas that do not receive any snowfall you will likely sit a degree or two above zero which is normal for this time year.

Synopsis Western Manitoba including Brandon/Dauphin/Portage La Prairie: Rain and freezing rain possible during the overnight time frame, snow beginning during the morning snow at times heavy with near zero visibility as possible in white out conditions. Areas of the Manitoba Parklands May see enhanced snowfall rates due to the Manitoba Escarpment. Snow will persist well into Wednesday evening. Winds will also gust from sixty to eighty kilometers an hour at times. Expect the storm to wind down during the overnight time frame into Thursday. 

Synopsis Eastern Manitoba including Areas from Portage La Prairie east to the Manitoba Border: Snow at times heavy will begin in far western regions of this forecast zone during Tuesday morning. Rain will begin during the morning on Tuesday In regions east of Portage, rain will persist into the evening on Tuesday before transitioning to snow around at 9:00 PM to 12:00 AM. Temperatures will likely drop below freezing for some which will put a an increased risk on power lines and increase the possibility of power outages. If heavy wet snow falls on top of the already layer already added layer of ice roads will become treacharous and power utilities may be impacted. Snow will continue into the night on Wednesday before tapering early Thursday morning.