Unsettled weather returns to Manitoba, severe weather risk returns

 Southern sections of Manitoba will be seeing a return to wetter than average conditions with the possibility of severe thunderstorms thanks to remnants of a tropical system hurricane marie. With all said and done mild temperatures look likely as we enter the final days of summer. Find out where the most active weather could occur in this weekends blog as we cover details of the long weekend. 

    Possibly severe storms are likely to return to southern Manitoba during the evening hours in Manitoba. HRRR model is a bit later in the day compared to other weather models, see below for more data. This is a start to what could be an unsettled rest of the weekend.

Saturday Night: A calm Night is in store for southern Manitoba with temperatures dropping into the upper teens with mainly clear skies and calm winds. There shouldn't be anything in the way of unsettled weather in southern Manitoba during the overnight time frame.

Risk of a severe line of thunderstorms moving through southern Manitoba during the early afternoon hours a bit earlier than the HRRR as suggested on the HRW ARW. 

Sunday: Temperatures during the afternoon will be rising into the mid 20s for southwestern manitoba Areas of eastern Manitoba including the Red River Valley will be seeing temperatures in the mid to high 20s, with Humidex values rising into the low 30s to mid 30s. during the early afternoon to evening a cold front will be moving through southern sections of manitoba Ahead of it a fairly unstable airmass will be situated over the region with general MUCAPE levels rising into the 1000 to 3000 joules per kilogram range, with bulk Sheer Values from 30 to 60 knots over southern sections of Manitoba during the afternoon and evening as well as Storm Relative helicity numbers between 100 to 400. What this all means is that there will be a chance for thunderstorm development in southern sections of Manitoba during the early afternoon into the evening hours from the western border of Saskatchewan and manitoba Into the Inter Lakes and red River Valley, as these thunderstorms develop there is a possibility that they will become severe with strong winds in excess of 100 kilometers an hour, hail up to the size of golf balls, flooding rains, and frequent lightning are all possible with these thunderstorms.There is also an initial risk of tornadoes in western Manitoba as these storms happen. It again is a possibility that this does not pan out as some other weather models are suggesting that these thunderstorms will not happen, but there's other weather models which are showing some significant thunderstorm activity over the region during the afternoon it's better to be safe than sorry with the information. Also storms will have the capability of flooding rains, the NAM and HRRR both show the red river valley seeing anywhere from 75-100+mm of rain with storms. 

Sunday night, It appears that this unsettled weather will persist in eastern sections of Manitoba before storms clear if they do happen. a pause in unsettled weather looks possible overnight into Monday given the approaching low pressure system in North Dakota will not be impacting our region much. overnight low temperatures for majority of southern sections of Manitoba will be in the upper teens and low 20s.

Monday a low pressure system will be sitting over sections of North Dakota and ahead of it a warm front will be moving through southern sections of manitoba, ahead of it a large area of precipitation including thunderstorm activity will be moving through southern sections through the afternoon and early evening hours. (Photo to the left of the HRW FV3 model suggesting strong storms in southern Manitoba during the afternoon on Monday) Temperatures during the afternoon will be in the upper teens to low to mid 20s depending on if skies can clear with the forecasted cloud that is expected. A general area of instability of 2,000 J/Kg CAPE will be drifting into the Red River Valley come the evening hours a second round of thunderstorm activity may develop in the Red River Valley region after the initial batch of rain and thunderstorms move through as the warm front lifts north. I'm not anticipating a severe weather outbreak as the day it was on Sunday, I am expecting a risk of marginally severe thunderstorms with some large hail and damaging winds a possibility but a much lower threat overall compared to the day on Sunday. a total of 20 to 40mm of rain as possible during the afternoon and evening in the Red River Valley and southwestern manitoba I have attached a photo of rainfall totals above this post with the HRRR and Nam model.

The rest of the week: Much calmer weather conditions are likely for the second half of the week into the weekend , it doesn't look like anymore storm systems will be impacting us for the foreseeable future after this weekend. Daytime high temperatures in the upper teens to low 20s for the first half of the week and then towards the end of the week temperatures returning into the upper 20s. it looks like temperatures in the low to mid teens are likely during the overnight time frame.