Warm Christmas and Fog with snow and freezing rain possible. Happy Early Merry Christmas!!!!!

 Much of southern Manitoba has been in a persistent period of warmer than average weather, the last 3 days much of our region has been enveloped in fog, and freezing drizzle. There also has been persistent southerly flow which has increased the development of low level moisture over the cold snowpack. 

Freezing Rain and snow expected during the morning hours, the highest risk is likely in areas of southeastern Manitoba for freezing rain. Snow is possible elsewhere. All the details below.

Tonight: there will be a batch of freezing rain and drizzle over southern sections of Manitoba, areas from the Pembina valley east into the red river valley. Temperatures overnight will be in the low minus single digits in the southwest and right around freezing in the southeast part of Manitoba. There will be a sharp temperature contrast by morning.

Sunday: A batch of Precipitation will move into southern Manitoba as part of a developing storm system In Nebraska, a area of freezing rain will move into areas just southeast of Winnipeg, if not the city itself. A risk of freezing rain will occur for areas of the red river valley during the morning before snow moves into the rest of the region by late morning, early afternoon. A general 3-5cm can be expected across the region by the evening hours. Areas east of Brandon and Carberry to winnipeg have the highest chances for picking up more than 2cm. High temperatures will drop below zero into the low minus single digits for the day on Sunday. 

Sunday Night: A clearer and calmer airmass will move into our region, temperatures will likely drop into the low minus teens in the southwest and areas of the southeast will see lows in high minus single digits around minus 3 to minus 7C. Windchills will drop into the minus teens.

The Week Ahead: A strong storm system will likely impact the northern plains as far south as Nebraska and into southern North Dakota. There will be a need to watch this system as it develops, but most models hint at it moving into the Superior region by Tuesday. If this system misses us, a majority of the weather here will remain calm temperatures in southwest Manitoba will be on the cooler side during the week with highs in the mid minus single digits and  lows in the minus mid teens,  areas in the southeast will see highs in the mid to high minus single digits, around zero and overnight lows in the mid to high minus single digits.

Another Winter Storm Set to Impact Southern Manitoba, Winter arriving late 😆😆😆

 Southern Manitoba has another winter storm expected to hit the region over the next 24 to 48 hours, temperatures ahead of it happened very mild with majority of the region already seeing high temperature values in the upper single digits and some locations around 10 degrees Celsius again this Thursday afternoon. Rain has already started to impact parts of Western Manitoba with the warm front trailing ahead of the main low pressure centre at 992MB. Latest model guidance has backed off on heavy snowfall amounts in some parts of southern Manitoba with a majority of heavy snow setting up in the Northern Interlakes to central and Northern Parklands regions into parts of southwestern Manitoba. Find out where when and what you can expect for the worst of the weather. 

(Above total snowfall amounts forecast for southern Manitoba , and full view into the north.) Snowstorm is expected for the region heading into the night Thursday and the day on Friday. 

(Thursday Night:) Heavy swath of snow will be setting up on the northwest side of the low pressure system, this will allow snowfall accumulations to grow. The area I circled is where the heaviest of it will fall, so please be careful if you are driving in these areas.)

Thursday and Thursday night: As I write this at 2:40 PM a widespread area of rain is sitting over northern lakes and the central part of Manitoba on the very fringe of the radar as far as S West as the dolphin and riding Mountain National Park regions. Temperatures this afternoon will likely continue rising with areas of the South still experiencing highs more typical of late October early November, highs between 5 degrees Celsius and 10 degrees celsius are still expected this afternoon. Early this evening rain will transition over to snow, for the interlakes in the Grahamdale, and Ashern and Swan River regions, there is a risk of freezing rain for southwestern parts of Manitoba including the Brandon and Portage La Prairie area depending on where it sets up the parklands could also be at risk for that over lake Manitoba. Rain will also occur in some of those sections before midnight. Latest model guidance is suggesting with the HRRR model run that any precipitation that falls after midnight will transition over to snow for areas points west from Carberry and Ashern and Grahamdale regions. A general snowfall outlook for the Southwest: one to five centimeters from Brandon, Neepawa into Alonsa, areas from Swan River, Dauphin the parklands N to the Winnipegosis and Lake Winnipegosis rgions amounts of 10 to 20 centimeters is likely in a localized narrow swath with the SE remaining dry during the overnight. Temperatures on Thursday night will drop for the southcentral and southeast parts from zero to minus 2 degrees celcius. For a section of the Interlake into South Central and East central parts of province we'll see overnight lows from zero to about one degrees Celsius Areas of Western Manitoba into the parklands north to Swan River will see overnight lows from zero to minus 2 degrees Celsius. Into Friday morning There will be a risk of freezing rain just west of Winnipeg to the Portage La Prairie Regions during the overnight. Before tapering off by the morning.

Snowfall is expected for much of the region on Friday evening with tight isobars strong winds are likely on the backside of the low pressure system. Wind Gusts up to 60km/h. 

Friday and Friday Night: During Friday afternoon we begin to move on the east side of the low pressure system which will draw back cooler air from the Arctic with precipitation switching over from rain to snow for South Central and southeast port so the province areas of the southwest that did not pick up much snow also pick up snow journal announce of 10 to 14 centimeters of snow as possible there is also a chance that areas of extreme SW Manitoba may receive amounts closer to 18 or 19 centimeters. Most models are still diverging on a solution for snowfall totals so this may change according to Justin from Manitoba Weather centre a general five to 10 centimeters of snow could fall in Red River valley and points west . When all is said and done the heaviest of the snow will set up to be over the parklands and West Central Manitoba area is around Swan River up to Lake Winnipegosis into southeastern Saskatchewan with fifteen to twenty five centimeters of snow possible there. I have attached a photo of snowfall forecast totals so the storm will occur on Thursday night in the southwest and on Friday and Friday afternoon and evening in the southeast, The NAM model suggests a narrow but heavy swath of snow moving through traveling SE on Friday evening into the late evening hours before entering Ontario by around midnight. Temperatures on Friday afternoon majority of the region will see the values in the low minus single digits with areas the South Central and the Interlakes especially Overlake Winnipeg from plus one to zero degrees Celsius with Winnipeg on the fringe of the above zero temperatures although they could also experience temperatures above zero on Friday afternoon. One thing to mention behind the cold front is strong northwest to north wind develops with wind gusts possibly exceeding 60 kilometers an hour, the main concern is the shoreline on Lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipeg with building ice a ice advisory has been issued along the lakes for concerns of ice moving on properties:Manitoba warns of high winds and potential ice buildup on major lakes - Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca  I do not know if there is significant amount of ice on lakes quite yet but that is something to keep in mind as the winds move out to the north. Windchill values overnight will likely be in the minus teens for majority of the region especially as you go further West and north to areas that have heavy snow cover. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the upper minus single digits some areas may escape that and only approach the mid to upper minus single digits especially the southwest.

During the day on Saturday temperatures will be a lot colder compared to Friday and Thursday daytime high values with a majority of the region seeing temperatures in the mid to high minus single digits with a slight wind chill of low minus teens for areas with very little snow cover areas with more significant snow cover may see windchill values closer to the mid minus teens. Saturday night: Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies are likely with low temperatures in the mid minus single digits and windchill values again in the minus teens and possibility of low minus 20’s. The rest of the weekend looks calm and seasonal with highs on Sunday in the mid To high minus single digits. (-4 to -8C). Overnight low temperatures on Sunday night will remain mild with majority of that region seeing overnight low values in the mid minus single digits with windchill values in the minus teens.

Another Winter heatwave expected to impact southern Manitoba

 Hello folks it’s Mike McGregor again , we are more than likely going to experience another round of warmer than average weather is expected to impact southern Manitoba over the next few days. Find out what this means for our weather and when and where the warmest of the weather will be . Also find out how this weather will come to an end. I’m not going to look forwards to it , hint we might be getting another bout of winter weather.  

Above temperatures look to soar on Wednesday afternoon with some areas of the south of getting to the 10°C mark or above 10°C, which is absolutely unheard of for December

Let’s get through the details for Tuesday: High temperature is on Tuesday on Tuesday will rise into the mid to low minus single digits with a majority of the region seeing cloudy to partly cloudy skies. There will be persistent fog in the early morning hours into the early afternoon hours, as seen on Sunday night. There is a higher chance of seeing some sun in the late afternoon hours, particularly for the red river Valley and eastern Manitoba.

Tuesday night: More than likely a warm front will be approaching a region, and this will usher in a much warmer air mass for Wednesday as a result, temperatures will likely rise overnight on Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will rise from the mid minus single digits to the low minus single digits to near the freezing mark for some areas. 

Wednesday: Southern Manitoba will become enveloped in the warm sector of low pressure system on Wednesday with high temperatures soaring into the mid to high single digits. Some areas may get closer to the 10°C mark along the American border. Temperatures on Wednesday may approach record highs given the fact that our normal daytime highs for December is in fact close to -10°C. 

Wednesday night: Overnight low temperatures for majority of the region will drop again below zero but will hang around the -3 to -5C° mark some areas may be a bit warmer specifically south, central and southern Manitoba. 

Thursday again much of southern Manitoba will be in the southerly flow ahead of the low pressure system expected for Thursday night that will impact extreme Southwestern portions Manitoba.Temperatures on Thursday will rise in to the mid plus side, single digits. 

There is also a possibility that record high temperatures will be again broken on Thursday with temperatures again soaring past 4°C for majority of the region. 

Thursday Night: Overnight low temperatures on Thursday will stay mild above for areas of the south east and south central part of Manitoba areas. The south west will drop below zero. There is also a possibility for increasing moisture with a low pressure system moving through in the morning hours into Friday. The precipitation, timing type and amounts are still yet to be determined. There will be information posted in a future post about this on Thursday afternoon or evening, there is also going to be a weekend blog posted around that time so look for that on Thursday afternoon or evening.