Active weekend on the way to Manitoba

Well another weekend of active weather is set to impact southern Manitoba this weekend, thanks to a large trough setting up over western Canada and a ridge developing over the eastern united states. Inbetween that a strong jetstream is set to establish itself over the prairies bringing with it areas of low pressure and instability and rounds of severe weather. Details about this is on the way in today's weather blog. 

Saturday Night: Tonight a large swath of showers and thunderstorms will develop in Montana, NW North Dakota and SE Saskatchewan with MUCAPE values of 2,000-3,000K/Kg and Storm relative helicity of 200-300 it should support thunderstorms with the potential for severe thunderstorms. The tornado threat appears to be in SE Saskatchewan, not in Manitoba. As a result of the instability a line of thunderstorms looks to develop and move east northeast through the evening and overnight hours, making it's way into SW Manitoba shortly after midnight. As the storms move through the potential is there for wind gusts up to 100-110km/h, and hail up to the size of golf balls. Storms may weaken as they move east,northeast throughout the night. Temperatures overnight will drop into the upper teens.

Sunday (Above): Another day of interesting weather is forecast for our region, a warm front will be sitting over southern sections of Manitoba and a cold front sitting over eastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba. As a result of this setup a large area of dewpoint temperatures in the mid to high 20's is forecast allowing CAPE levels to rise into the 1000 to 2000 range (Thunderstorm energy), with EHI levels of 2-3. As a result expect thunderstorms to possibly develop in SW MB and the western parklands, there also is a chance for some thunderstorms to form in the red river valley, eastern Manitoba but lower. Some of the storms that form may be severe with hail up to the size of golf balls or larger, wind gusts up to 110km/h, 75-100mm of rain and a tornado threat. This threat is conditional on clearing happening, if it doesn't clear storms may not likely have the neccessary environment to develop. Expect thunderstorms to clear by late evening and lift northeast into central parts of Manitoba. Temperatures will drop only in the upper teens for a majority of the region. 

Monday (Above): The attention turns to southeastern Manitoba as the center of the low pressure system sits over North Dakota and lifts north into southern Manitoba by evening. Temperatures will reach the mid to high 20's in southeast Manitoba, where the west will sit in the high teens and low 20's. Dewpoints in the low 20's are possible in eastern Manitoba. What this will do is allow for moisture to advect north into southeastern Manitoba with upwards of 2,000 to 3,500 J/Kg, SRH values of 400 to 800 are possible in southcentral and southeastern Manitoba, EHI values of 6 to 10 are possible. What this all means is that storms will likely develop in North Dakota during the afternoon and will move north into south central and southeastern Manitoba, there will be a risk for supercells with the possibility of hail up to the size of baseballs, heavy rain in excess of 75-100mm, tornado or 2 is possible with the storms that develop. They may move northeast into eastern Manitoba come later in the evening. We at the weather centre of Manitoba will update you as the day gets closer. Both the NAM and the RRFS have convection moving through the red river valley on Monday. 

Storm totals will vary from 50 80mm of rain in the western portions of Manitoba and the parklands in Swan River, Areas of the Red River valley From Winnipeg West to Portage La Prairie may see 50 to 75mm of rain elsewhere a general 20 to 45mm of rain is expected.

A brief cooldown is possible during the first half of the week with temperatures in the low 20's before another heatwave kicks in during the second half of the week with highs in the upper 20's and low 30's. Environment Canada has already hinted at signs of a heat wave in there latest forecast discussion. 

Severe Thunderstorm Threat Likely in Manitoba today

 Hi everyone, I have an update on the severe weather threat, which is likely to impact southern Manitoba this afternoon evening and overnight time frame. A strong low pressure system is going to be impacting in southern sections of the province bringing with it increase levels of moisture, humidity, and instability. The end result of this will turn out not to be the best for some. Find out the details of where, and when the worst of the weather will occur

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Today: I’ll try and keep things simple for today’s outlook. Today’s Southern Manitoba is under the gun for significant thunderstorms as a result of temperatures reaching the low 30s and high 30s with the heat index. A warm front will be moving into southern Manitoba, bringing in instability values quite significant for this time of year . Most unstable CAPE values will rise into the 3000 J per kilogram range to 4000 J per kilogram range in some areas of the SW parts of Manitoba, by this evening, energy helicity values will rise into the 5 to 12 levels. With all of this combined and dewpoint temperatures reaching the 20s this afternoon. Overall, with all the ingredients in place, we have ample thunderstorm, energy, shear, twisting in the atmosphere for super cells, humidity, and a cold front and warm front as the trigger we will be looking at a significant risk for thunderstorms, which will be severe This afternoon, a risk of discreet super cell thunderstorms with the capacity to bring in hail up to baseball size, rainfall rates up to 30-50mm or more , and tornadoes. This risk is possible in southeastern Manitoba and the red River Valley and southwestern Manitoba along a warm front as it lifts north. As the evening progresses, a dry line will advance east through Northwestern, North Dakota and southwestern Manitoba ahead of this a line of super south thunderstorms will likely develop forming into a squall line which will impact a majority of southern sections of Manitoba during the evening and overnight hours. An extreme risk for severe weather is possible in In areas from Brandon East to Winnipeg with the eastern half of Winnipeg to the Ontario border in a high risk for severe weather. With this squall line expect wind gust up to 130 km an hour, hail up to the size of golf balls are larger, and heavy rain rates of 50 to 75 mm/h. It is possible that this event may classify as a Derecho. 

Tomorrow, much of the same as in the forecast for southern sections of Manitoba and eastern portions of the province, with a lower risk of severe thunderstorms and a non-organized threat for scattered showers and scattered thunderstorms. Less instability will be in play for the day on Wednesday. 

Much cooler conditions are forecast for the second half of the week with temperatures reaching the teens for daytime highs and low 20s. Overnight lows in the upper single digits or low teens.

Severe Weather Returns to southern Manitoba, June starts off with a boom

Southern Manitoba is in line for a round of severe weather and this is the first of the summer season, an area of low pressure is expected to impact southern Manitoba today, all well temperatures are expected to rise into the 20s. This will signal a start of a potential unsettled weather pattern Find out more in this week's blog.

Today:

Southern Manitoba will be under hot humid air mass this afternoon and evening ahead of a frontal system, temperatures today will rise into the low twenties in southwestern Manitoba with areas of south central and south eastern Manitoba rising into the high twenties, with humidex values in the mid to high 30's. Of note today will be the rising instability numbers in southern Manitoba with CAPE values in the 2,000 to 3,000 J/Kg range (thunderstorm energy), supercell composite values of 2-10 in southwestern Manitoba, and EHI of 2-8, and bulk shear of 40-80 knots and finally dewpoints of 15-20C will be in place allowing for sufficient moisture for thunderstorm development. Based on this data, thunderstorms will be developing in southwestern Manitoba during the afternoon hours with supercells the primary risk from an area by Melita and extreme southwestern Manitoba into the portage la prairie region. We cannot narrow down exactly where they will form however when they do impact an area they will bring a risk for 100-130km/h winds, ping pong to golf ball size hail, 30-50mm of rain and a risk of a tornado or 2.  Convection will then congeal into a line of severe storms in the western half of Manitoba as they organize, gradually moving east northeast into the red river valley and eastern Manitoba where they will weaken the further east they go with areas of the red river valley seeing a chance at 90-110km/h winds, nickel to ping pong ball size hail and 30-50mm of rain. Storms may persist into the overnight in the eastern half of Manitoba where they will be non severe. 

I have attached simulated radar images below of the storms between 5pm-10pm.

Tonight: Storms will clear and there will be a chance at remaining showers and storms may move up into the red river valley but that will, be a low chance. Temperatures tonight will drop into the low teens in the western half of Manitoba and mid teens in south central and southeastern Manitoba. 

Wednesday: Sunny skies are likely during the first half of the day but a returning chance of showers and thunderstorms are possible during the second half of the day, as a frontal system moves through this threat will be in the red river valley and eastern Manitoba as the main instability axis sits over the region. Temperatures will rise into the low 20's in southwestern Manitoba and mid 20's in the southeast part of the region. Clear skies are likely in the overnight timeframe, with overnight low temperatures in the upper single digits in the parklands and the mid teens in south central Manitoba.

Second half of the week: much cooler temperatures are forecast for the second half of the week with temperatures reaching the upper teens to low 20s and overnight low temperatures in the low teens and upper single digits.Calmer weather conditions as a result of high pressure. It appears that we may be in line again for another round of heat as we get towards the weekend with another round of potential thunderstorms for our region on Sunday.