Another Winter Storm Set to Impact Southern Manitoba, Winter arriving late 😆😆😆

 Southern Manitoba has another winter storm expected to hit the region over the next 24 to 48 hours, temperatures ahead of it happened very mild with majority of the region already seeing high temperature values in the upper single digits and some locations around 10 degrees Celsius again this Thursday afternoon. Rain has already started to impact parts of Western Manitoba with the warm front trailing ahead of the main low pressure centre at 992MB. Latest model guidance has backed off on heavy snowfall amounts in some parts of southern Manitoba with a majority of heavy snow setting up in the Northern Interlakes to central and Northern Parklands regions into parts of southwestern Manitoba. Find out where when and what you can expect for the worst of the weather. 

(Above total snowfall amounts forecast for southern Manitoba , and full view into the north.) Snowstorm is expected for the region heading into the night Thursday and the day on Friday. 

(Thursday Night:) Heavy swath of snow will be setting up on the northwest side of the low pressure system, this will allow snowfall accumulations to grow. The area I circled is where the heaviest of it will fall, so please be careful if you are driving in these areas.)

Thursday and Thursday night: As I write this at 2:40 PM a widespread area of rain is sitting over northern lakes and the central part of Manitoba on the very fringe of the radar as far as S West as the dolphin and riding Mountain National Park regions. Temperatures this afternoon will likely continue rising with areas of the South still experiencing highs more typical of late October early November, highs between 5 degrees Celsius and 10 degrees celsius are still expected this afternoon. Early this evening rain will transition over to snow, for the interlakes in the Grahamdale, and Ashern and Swan River regions, there is a risk of freezing rain for southwestern parts of Manitoba including the Brandon and Portage La Prairie area depending on where it sets up the parklands could also be at risk for that over lake Manitoba. Rain will also occur in some of those sections before midnight. Latest model guidance is suggesting with the HRRR model run that any precipitation that falls after midnight will transition over to snow for areas points west from Carberry and Ashern and Grahamdale regions. A general snowfall outlook for the Southwest: one to five centimeters from Brandon, Neepawa into Alonsa, areas from Swan River, Dauphin the parklands N to the Winnipegosis and Lake Winnipegosis rgions amounts of 10 to 20 centimeters is likely in a localized narrow swath with the SE remaining dry during the overnight. Temperatures on Thursday night will drop for the southcentral and southeast parts from zero to minus 2 degrees celcius. For a section of the Interlake into South Central and East central parts of province we'll see overnight lows from zero to about one degrees Celsius Areas of Western Manitoba into the parklands north to Swan River will see overnight lows from zero to minus 2 degrees Celsius. Into Friday morning There will be a risk of freezing rain just west of Winnipeg to the Portage La Prairie Regions during the overnight. Before tapering off by the morning.

Snowfall is expected for much of the region on Friday evening with tight isobars strong winds are likely on the backside of the low pressure system. Wind Gusts up to 60km/h. 

Friday and Friday Night: During Friday afternoon we begin to move on the east side of the low pressure system which will draw back cooler air from the Arctic with precipitation switching over from rain to snow for South Central and southeast port so the province areas of the southwest that did not pick up much snow also pick up snow journal announce of 10 to 14 centimeters of snow as possible there is also a chance that areas of extreme SW Manitoba may receive amounts closer to 18 or 19 centimeters. Most models are still diverging on a solution for snowfall totals so this may change according to Justin from Manitoba Weather centre a general five to 10 centimeters of snow could fall in Red River valley and points west . When all is said and done the heaviest of the snow will set up to be over the parklands and West Central Manitoba area is around Swan River up to Lake Winnipegosis into southeastern Saskatchewan with fifteen to twenty five centimeters of snow possible there. I have attached a photo of snowfall forecast totals so the storm will occur on Thursday night in the southwest and on Friday and Friday afternoon and evening in the southeast, The NAM model suggests a narrow but heavy swath of snow moving through traveling SE on Friday evening into the late evening hours before entering Ontario by around midnight. Temperatures on Friday afternoon majority of the region will see the values in the low minus single digits with areas the South Central and the Interlakes especially Overlake Winnipeg from plus one to zero degrees Celsius with Winnipeg on the fringe of the above zero temperatures although they could also experience temperatures above zero on Friday afternoon. One thing to mention behind the cold front is strong northwest to north wind develops with wind gusts possibly exceeding 60 kilometers an hour, the main concern is the shoreline on Lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipeg with building ice a ice advisory has been issued along the lakes for concerns of ice moving on properties:Manitoba warns of high winds and potential ice buildup on major lakes - Winnipeg | Globalnews.ca  I do not know if there is significant amount of ice on lakes quite yet but that is something to keep in mind as the winds move out to the north. Windchill values overnight will likely be in the minus teens for majority of the region especially as you go further West and north to areas that have heavy snow cover. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the upper minus single digits some areas may escape that and only approach the mid to upper minus single digits especially the southwest.

During the day on Saturday temperatures will be a lot colder compared to Friday and Thursday daytime high values with a majority of the region seeing temperatures in the mid to high minus single digits with a slight wind chill of low minus teens for areas with very little snow cover areas with more significant snow cover may see windchill values closer to the mid minus teens. Saturday night: Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies are likely with low temperatures in the mid minus single digits and windchill values again in the minus teens and possibility of low minus 20’s. The rest of the weekend looks calm and seasonal with highs on Sunday in the mid To high minus single digits. (-4 to -8C). Overnight low temperatures on Sunday night will remain mild with majority of that region seeing overnight low values in the mid minus single digits with windchill values in the minus teens.