Spring Outlook 2016 and a look at our summer.

Last Week of March there will be an increased area of cool weather from the arctic, however considering there will be a very small snowpack our temperatures will not budge that much. The Good news is that it will stay above zero for the most part and likely lead to a lot of melting in areas.

With the El Nino Weakening and still having an impact on the country this year it is very likely that our spring temperatures will stay near to quite above average.

Looking back on previous Trans Nino years can help us find out what the weather will be like this year...

April 1983 was a very cold April by normal standards, especially the first half of the month however there were major improvements once the second half of the month came by temperatures in Winnipeg were soaring into the double digits and into the twenties. Thunderstorms were reported in the middle of April. About 4.4cm of snow was reported the whole month of April, last snowfall that year was in late May. 2.3mm of rain.



April of 1998 was actually quite warm compared to other Trans Nino years, temperatures were able to soar into the double digits the first week of April through into May with some minor cool downs. Thunderstorms also occurred in Mid April as well in 1998. No snowfall was reported in the month's of April/May at Winnipeg airport. 38.6mm fell in April at the airport.



April of 2003 was a dry one and we stayed mainly seasonal, but there were a few days where our temperatures were in the twenties, thank's to a warm front that brought warm air into the province that day. Thunderstorms did not occur this year until late May. However about 15cm of snow fell in April thanks to cool temperatures. 17.3mm of rain fell the whole month.

May of 1983 featured above normal temperatures along with 29mm of rain which is below normal and a trace of snow.


May of 1998 was a wet and rainy month with 100mm of rain the whole month, May 10th was the only day in the month with a thunderstorm. Temperatures were seasonal for the month of May.


May of 2003 experienced temperatures in the high teens for the start of the month then they became very warm for the end of the month with high's in the mid to high 20's. 78.5mm of rain fell in the whole month with one storm day on May 29th.


June of 1983 was a wet month with 139.2mm of rain falling in the whole month, and there were several days of thunderstorms the days of the 13, 19, 20, 21, 23. Temperatures were above average the whole month as well.

June of 1998 was seasonal in terms of temperature lots of more than 20 degree temperatures, rainfall was below average with only 2 days of thunderstorms on the 19th and the 26th. 59.5mm f rain fell the whole month.

June of 2003 had above normal temperatures with storms on the 6, 15, and 28. 42.5mm fell the whole month.

If we lose our snowpack early there will be warmer temperature's sooner, this is the more probable outlook for the month of April.  I'm going for middle of April when our snowpack will be gone. Consensus for April is really tough right now because. Models differ on snowfall in the coming weeks which would effect our overall temperatures. However as models were predicting a warm April they appear to be going in the opposite direction, now showing bouts of arctic air flowing in. Whereas the spring outlooks before were going for a warm April. Here's the thing if our snowpack is gone our temperatures will remain above zero to ten degrees even in arctic air.

April

 I'm going for a more cooler bias for April, however our snowpack will be very small if we see any snow. We will have periods of warmer weather intertwined in with the cooler weather. As for precipitation I am calling for a near to slightly above average considering over the next few weeks into the month of April we are likely to see systems slide through the area as the flow becomes more zonal for the month of May. There may be some early spring snowfalls but they won't stay long. rainfall and thunderstorms look more likely in the middle of April.


May

For May much above average temperatures with a zonal flow and some ridging, periods of cooler temperatures are expected. Near to above average precipitation as a west to east flow at times transitions into a southwestern flow. "Things look to start getting wet in the middle of the month" according to some folk's from NWS Grand Forks via Dan Riddle, We could experience our first severe weather outbreaks at the start to the middle of the month. Tornadoes could start becoming common mid to late May.

June

June Above average temperatures and depending on how much ingredients we can receive in the early summer season for severe weather we either could end up with a little amount of rainfall or a lot. At the moment I'm leaning towards a above average amount of rainfall through the month although we could end up with a lot more depending how big our severe weather season gets. Southwest and western flow will bring in low pressure systems through the area on multiple occasions. Possibly enough thunderstorms to get our precipitation totals high enough to cause local flooding. This will all happen as a possible drought could be taking place in North Dakota, we will be lucky enough to be along the primary stormtrack this year which will bring in lots of moisture. Further north and east you go the gulf airmass will be limited resulting in less amounts of moisture and thunderstorms heading into summer considering most of it's presence will be in the states and southern Canada. However that doesn't mean it won't make it that far up north, it still will likely stream into those areas at one point or another.

Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Showing a warm Gulf of Mexico, which effects our weather here in Spring/Summer

Severe Weather Season Spring into Summer
Spring of 2016 is looking like it could very well be an active season considering how active it has been previous springs along with global warming. It is expected that our severe thunderstorm season will start early this year. The states have already been experiencing a very active season, it is usually a good indicator of what our spring and summer will be like here. A good indicator of our  severe weather season also is the gulf of mexico ocean temperatures, if it's cooler than average expect a less active season. However if the temperature anomalies are average or above average expect a busier or more severe season than usual. At the moment it is sitting around 24C that is average. Though considering it is that warm so early in the year we are looking at an active season , as the real spring heat hasn't arrived yet. Once it heats up more fuel for severe weather outbreaks will be added and it will add to the energy for bigger storms that will affect us into the summer.  Add to the fact that various weather models are hinting at above normal preciptation returning to our area mid to late spring. You mix in the heat along with the low pressure systems that will cause the precipitation will result in increased risks of severe weather. Multiple southwest flow events look to affect us which draws in warmer more humid air from the gulf of Mexico and severe weather of course. The threat area will be in the northern interlakes by June. If we see tornado events they could be a lot stronger because tornadoes in El Nino Years are usually the weakest, transitioning into a La Nina does usually cause stronger tornadoes. There is a link between warm ocean water in the Pacific and drier air for tornadoes to use in the summer months, which usually results in weaker tornadoes. However when you have cooler ocean waters it does usually create more moisture and more of a temperature difference to work with, which in turn makes them stronger. Looking at what the CANsips model is pointing at which is run here in Canada, they are forecasting above normal precipitation into June, July and August. At the moment heading into what could be a wet summer with the fact that we are going into a La Nina year it could very well be an active season considering La Nina years offer stronger tornadoes and thunderstorms. 2007 was a La Nina summer, the Elie Tornado and Dauphin Hailstorm occurred that year.






What was it like in previous summers?

1983 was a dry summer with only a few mm over 100mm falling the whole months of July and August. Thunderstorms occurred on July 30, August 2, 24, 27,29. Temperatures were above 30 degrees in Winnipeg for 27 days.

1998 Temperatures were slightly above normal for July with a few days above 30C, while August had virtually every day above 25C. Precipitation was just over 100mm for the 2 months in total. Thunderstorms occurred on July 1,10,12,18,26,27, with 38mm of rainfall together at the end of the month. August had 95mm of rain the whole month, with thunderstorms occurring on the 2,12,22,26,27.

2003 Temperatures were slightly above average with 44.5mm of rain falling the month of July. Storms occurred on the 6,11,14,1,29,30,31 in July. Temperatures in August were seasonal with 72mm of rain falling the whole month of August. 11 days above 30C occurred. Storms occurred on the 20th, 25, 27 and 28. 8 hours of storms occurred on the 27 and 28th.

Summer 2016

Summer outlook

Looking ahead to summer of 2016 it looks like that there will be above seasonal temperatures through the summer with average to slightly above average rainfall, as in past few summers there have been higher than average amounts of rainfall with global warming. As with years where an El Nino has been weakening there has been average amounts of rainfall, but taking into account how global warming is increasing rainfall amounts it is probable we will see higher amounts of precipitation considering various weather models are hinting at that happening this summer. Keep in mind there will be limited moisture for heavy rainfalls as you go further east and north considering gulf moisture will primarily be in the southern half of the province and united states. It won't be a consistent thing, it still will impact those areas on occasion just not as much as the south. A mainly west to east flow with some ridging is possible, but one of the models indicates a southwest flow steering systems in from the west coast of the united states bringing in big severe weather events. Severe weather is expected to worsen as we head into summer with more tornado events and severe weather outbreaks, the odds of worse tornadoes increase due to La Nina taking over and offering more volatility in the atmosphere due to temperature differences in the ground and atmosphere.


Any questions feel free to ask me...

                 Temperatures Precipitation

Dauphin Above Normal Above Normal

Winnipeg Above Normal Above Normal

Brandon Above Normal Above Normal

Emerson Above Normal Above Normal

Steinbach Above Normal Above Normal