Warm weather is here, with the return of wet weather

(Information compiled from Rob's Blog www.robsobsblog.blogspot.ca and Environment Canada. As well as some various weather models.) Today was an exceptionally warm day, high temperatures soared into the mid to high teens today as a welcome pattern change took over and allowed westerlies to push in warmer air from the pacific. Things are about to change though as a spring storm system arriving on Friday will bring in moist and warm air along with heavy amounts of rainfall for much of southern Manitoba over the latter part of the week into the weekend. As much as 70mm is possible in places.

Thunderstorm potential as depicted on the NAM models for tonight.

The night ahead tonight will offer clear conditions early on, however as we get into the late evening, overnight, early morning hours there will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms. The risk will start out in the southwest part of the province in the late evening, excluding the Dauphin and Swan River areas, into the Red River Valley overnight into the early morning. There will be 2 batches of precipitation one drifting in from North Dakota, the other coming in from Saskatchewan. Those will be showers and could offer thunderstorms into the morning hours.



Thunderstorms are possible Thursday Night into Friday

The day Thursday will start showery and possibly thundery, it should clear out by mid morning. The sun will shine and it will be even warmer as the warm front moves in from the south. High temperatures will be in the mid to high teens possibly above 20C in areas of the southwest. Humidity will increase as well as cloudcover on Thursday. "Setup is better for a few more thunderstorms to fire up overnight Friday into Friday morning along an 850 mb warm front that will be pushing up from the MB/ND border. Possibility of a line of tstorms moving up from the MB/ND border early Friday pushing north through the morning with heavy downpours". Rob says. Summary: Expect rainfall to begin late Thursday evening into Thursday night and Friday morning with thunderstorms.

Position of fronts here will dictate temperatures on Friday

GDPS showing temperatures in the mid to high teens to possibly above 20C in the Red River Valley Friday, we'll see.

Friday is a different story the thunderstorms that go through in the morning hours will turn into an area of rain for most areas north of the warm front. The day Friday will be cooler than average for areas of southwestern Manitoba and the interlakes (unless models change drastically) with high temperatures in the mid to high single digits and rainfall with thunderstorms embedded. Different story goes for areas of southeastern Manitoba where a warm front will be positioned, models are still having a tough time figuring out its position. It could roughly lie from Crystal City to Bissett, though some models are showing it just north of Winnipeg, and others slightly south of Winnipeg. Where it ends up will make a big difference in temperature. If it ends up being south of Winnipeg the warmth would end up in the Southern Red River Valley, and Winnipeg would see heavy rains and cool temperatures Friday. If it were to end up north of Winnipeg the weather would be warmer and more humid as well as drier, with better thunderstorm potential. At the moment the GDPS is showing it about thirty or forty km north of Winnipeg and that means Warmer and more humid weather. 

Rainfall amounts as per the GDPS, may change over the next 2 days. Generally about 50mm expected. Will Update

Saturday will be a soaker with heavy rainfall as the system moves east into NW Ontario. Rumbles of thunder are still possible, though not as big as what Thursday night and Friday will offer. Temperatures will be in the high single digits to above 10C on Saturday for most, with the best of the warmer weather in Minnesota. Models are having a tough time resolving the placement of the heaviest amounts still, as well as figuring out how much could fall. I will be updating things in the comments below. As for the consenus on the amounts at the moment the system could drop as much as 50 to 70mm when all is said and done. So have your sump pump ready, as the ground is still frozen quite a bit. Sunday will be a much cooler day with rain still falling, and possibly snow 10cm of it in the southwestern part of MB along with temperatures in the high single digits. Just a note: Special Weather Statements are in place for this weather event go on and have a look at this website..... http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/index_e.html?prov=mb

Stay Tuned for Updates on Twitter and in the comments!!!