A Mixed Weather Story For The Long Weekend

Some nice weather is on the way for the long weekend with some sunshine and warm temperatures for Saturday. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will come on Saturday night and on Sunday as a low pressure system moves through the interlake and Southern Manitoba.

A low will move through Saskatchewan tomorrow afternoon reaching Manitoba Sunday.

It will continue to be a beautiful evening out there for all folks in the South, with temperatures expected to dip into the mid to high teens and some clear skies. Tomorrow maybe a few degrees cooler than it was today as we see more cloudcover work it's way into the province out ahead of another system that will be moving in from Saskatchewan. We could also see some stronger winds ahead close to 30 km/h.

A possibly strong low level jet (LLJ) is forecast to develop on Saturday evening. According to A Weather Moment  "Current consensus is that a 40kt LLJ will develop over central North Dakota and slowly push eastwards overnight. An area of showers and thundershowers look to develop on the nose of the LLJ, mainly through areas between the International Border northwards towards Riding Mountain Provincial Park eastwards across the Interlake." The problem with this forecast currently appears to be associated with Isaac, as it will be pushing northwards towards Iowa before moving eastwards on Sunday. The moisture that is required for us to see thunderstorms on Saturday Night sits along a boundary left behind across the Northern States. The LLJ that forms tomorrow evening should be able to tap into the pool of moisture and transport it northwards into Southern Manitoba. However if the location of the moisture changes or moves which is Isaac then the LLJ would have little left to tap into and we would be left with no more than scattered showers. Along with little amounts.

A cold front will move through during the day on Sunday sparking up more showers and storms, possibly severe before they clear out during Sunday Night. Highs will be in the high 20's. Holiday Monday looks spectacular with highs in the mid to high 20's and a nice breeze from the Southwest.

Hot Sunny Weather Continues For The Rest Of The Week

Southern Manitoba will be lounging in sunny hot weather for the rest of the week as upper level ridging moves east across the prairie provinces. The province will see a chance for thunderstorms on Thursday Morning through until the evening as a cold front pushes through. The Sunny and hot Weather will return for Friday.

850 MB Temperatures for Wednesday at 6pm. Look how warm it is in Southern Manitoba 20C+ 850 MB Temperatures. Meaning 30C Weather! Woohoo!

 A southerly flow ahead of an incoming upper level ridge has already pumped temperatures to the 30C mark in some places yesterday and today. So with 850 MB Temperatures near or above 20C we will see daytime highs soar from 30 to 34C today, before the day is done. The warm air that will be in place over the south will also create warmer overnight temperatures. Considering we have had cooler nights with temperatures in the mid teens, tonight we will barely dip below the 20C mark in some places. Other regions may feel cooler, although only about by 5 degrees (10 to 15C) especially in the Southwest and in the Parkland’s. There also will be a risk of thunderstorms overnight as the cold front advances eastwards in the Western Portion of Manitoba.

Tomorrow will be another warm one, however an approaching cold front will move along the international border through the day, bringing some showers and storms through the morning to SW MB and the risk of more thunderstorms to the Red River Valley from Winnipeg and maybe all the way to Fargo. If storms develop they will likely form in the late afternoon along the surface feature. They will probably develop more in North Dakota then in Manitoba, less of a chance in Winnipeg.

Despite the hot weather that will be in place and daytime high's near 30C, severe weather indicies look fairly weak so I probably won't expect any severe weather when they form. The better chances for severe weather will remain in North Dakota.

We will see our temperatures dip into the mid teens on Thursday Night, and Friday looks beautiful with the sunshine and temperatures near 30C continuing. For the weekend it looks like we could have a cold front sweep through Saturday, bringing the threat of more showers and thunderstorms along with cooler weather. So as a result Saturday's daytime high will be in the mid to high 20's. Temperatures will likely rebound for Sunday with them returning to the high 20's.

After that temperatures look to stay warm and beautiful for next week!

Cool Weather For The Next Few Days, Returning to Seasonal Temperatures By the Start of Next Week

We’ll see fairly seasonal weather over the weekend with overnight lows that will start off cool but climb back towards normal as well.

With The Jet Stream Struggling to push eastwards on Saturday the cool air will remain over NW Ontario and Southern Manitoba. Leaving behind the major warmth in British Columbia and Alberta. The Jet Stream will push eastwards slowly throughout the start of the week bringing warmer weather hopefully. 

After a beautiful day today we will see some cloudcover tomorrow as a trough travels south through the Red River Valley with a chance for some showers and maybe a thunderstorm before things clear out by evening. This will result in the temperatures staying fairly cool with them likely being in the low 20's in the Red River Valley, as cool air filters in behind the system. Although warmer weather will be in store for SW Manitoba where the sun will stay out pretty much all day.

The weekend will end sunny with temperatures climbing back into the upper twenties with the trend continuing into next week. Our next chance of precipitation could be on Tuesday Morning at 7am as another cold front slides south, the chances for precipitation at the moment are only looking to be 20%. I will keep everyone up to date on Twitter. Other than that the seasonal weather looks to take over once again!

Anyone Order Cooler Weather?

Colder than normal weather conditions will be expected this week over Southern Manitoba as another upper level disturbance crosses over Southern Manitoba midweek, bringing behind it cooler air. This will mark the start of another pattern change that could stay in place for a few weeks.

A powerful low pressure system will cross Southern Manitoba through the Night Tuesday and Through Wednesday, bringing behind it cooler weather for the second half of the week. The Welcome relief banner is published in this picture as the cool air will bring releif to those that experienced unrelenting heat in the upper states. Especially in Chicago. This photo is from The Weather Channel.

 

To start off the night tonight we will experience clear or clearing skies in Southern Manitoba, along with light winds either out of the north or the northwest allowing for our temperatures to drop past the 10 degree mark. So we will likely see temperatures in and around the 7 to 10C mark overnight, however that will allow for some patchy fog to develop considering how warm the ground is and how cool the air will be. Usually in this situation moisture usually develops especially near the ground. Any leftover fog should clear out by sunrise leaving behind sunny skies and temperatures rising into the low to mid 20's (from about 22C to 26C),  before more cloudcover rolls in ahead of the next system in the evening as the high pressure we are under departs. Temperatures in general for this period should be in the high 20's, and in Winnipeg the normal high temperature should be 25C/ low temperature 12C.

Another cold front will move through MB Wed Morning

The pattern change looks like will be in store for us by midweek. It looks like a major cold front will swing through Southern Manitoba through Tuesday Night and into the day Wednesday. The timing on this front may change, so I will update as needed. With the approach of this front expect showers and thunderstorms to generate over the Parkland’s Tuesday Evening and spread south-eastwards as the night progresses. The showers and storms will eventually travel into the Red River Valley, during the morning hours likely in a line and they would possibly exit the province by afternoon. The thunderstorms would likely become non severe with general threats below the severe threshold. Meaning lightning, rainfall in excess of 20 mm or less, small hail, and weak wind gusts. The remnants of this cold front will bring pop up showers and thunderstorms being fairly weak and disorganized in general to most parts of southern Manitoba. Temperatures would likely be in the low twenties throughout the day Wednesday, with cooler weather expected by the end of the day as a cool Northwest wind takes shape behind the front. 

Throughout the second half of the week we will likely see some cooler days with temperatures in the high teens to low twenties, as the low moves eastward. Looking ahead to the next couple of weeks, it appears difficult to predict. (I have found the following using the jet stream forecast model). With a ridge out west and a blocking pattern out East will be stuck in-between the two, meaning the likely trend will be seasonal weather until that blocking pattern moves on. After that, the ridge could either keep moving East or flatten out bringing us the same seasonal weather or another warm period. I will keep an eye on the situation and let you know how it plays out. 

Nice Weather Expected to Continue, Becoming Unsettled For The Weekend

After a rainy weekend and a glorious start to the week, it is looking like the sunny and warm trend will continue for several days ahead as a ridge of high pressure starts building into the Eastern Prairies Including Manitoba. As a result we can expect to see temperatures in the mid to high 20's during the time period. Although we will see a very slight chance for some showers and thunderstorms today as an area of small low pressure slides through the area. Another area of low pressure is forecast to move in For Friday and Saturday bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms once again.

An area of High Pressure is expected to gradually build over Manitoba in the coming days, it is not shown on the map though it is find in the big circle in Northern Manitoba.

There is a chance for a shower or thunderstorm over Southern Manitoba this afternoon as a trough moves southwards as it heads into North Western Ontario, the best chances will remain to the East through the Whiteshell regions and in SW Manitoba. Everything should organize and drift south and eastwards out of the province by evening hours.

Next on the headlines, it is looking like a fairly strong ridge of high pressure will continue to build into Northern Manitoba, and it is looking like it will strengthen to almost be at 1030 mb by tomorrow morning. The axis will be from The Red River Valley Northeast into Hudson Bay and James Bay. The system will ensure sunny and clear skies over the period of the next few days, limiting clouds only to fair weather cumulus and as well allow for a southerly flow to take place over the southern portion of the province. This would usually result in hot temperatures and high humidity but in this case it will provide less humidity and more normal temperatures. Instead of this high pressure system being created by a ridge, this is one that will be created by a trough of  cold air descending from the Arctic. The southerly flow that will develop over southern Manitoba will be a return flow of air out of the high pressure system  instead of being a warm moist flow from the Gulf of Mexic. Leaving our temperatures slow to climb as each day progresses and dewpoints only rising into the low to mid teens.

Friday Saturday will be another stormy few days as another low moves into the province,scattered thunderstorms and showers will both be possible on these days with accumulations nearing 5mm in showers and higher amounts of course in thunderstorms. Severe weather will be possible on Friday in Southern Manitoba as highlighted by The Prairie Arctic Storm Prediction Centre based in Winnipeg.

Next Week looks like it will continue to be nice with Temperatures in the high twenties along with lots of sunshine.

I could not have found out some of these detail's if it weren't for Brad from

A Weather Moment

Warm Active Weather To Dominate The Start Of August

Warm Temperatures will continue to make an appearance in Southern Manitoba as we will rise into the high 20 Degree range every day for the rest of the week. We will continue to see active conditions as multiple systems move over the province for the second half of the week.

A chance for thunderstorms exits as another trough moves through Southern Manitoba throughout the evening hours. This will be one of the many areas of low pressure systems that will pass through our area.

 We will see a chance for widespread afternoon thunderstorm activity across Southern Manitoba, as a weak disturbance moves through the area. Chances for Thunderstorms will be higher as you go through Western Manitoba and The Interlakes. In fact some are currently making an appearance right now, there is a slight chance a few may reach Winnipeg. The Threat will continue throughout the evening hours as the feature moves through. Before The Day is done temperatures should reach the 24C to 28C mark, along with nice temperatures from 12 to 17C Overnight. We will see nicer weather conditions for thursday with no precipitation expected and temperatures in the high 20's or low thirties.

Another Powerful Low Pressure System is set to make an entrance into The Province on Thursday Night as it pushes showers and thunderstorms out ahead of it into SouthWestern Manitoba that will last through until the morning when things clear out. The Low will sit over Southern Manitoba on the day Friday likely giving an enhanced severe weather threat given the instabilty that will be in place. Severe Storms with Large hail and damaging winds cannot be ruled out. There will be a chance for heavy rain/thunderstorms on Friday Night as the backside of the system wraps around. Saturday will be fairly cool at around 20C, as cool air filters in behind the system. Although the rest of the weekend will be a lot nicer with temperatures rebounding back up to 30 degrees.

Have A great Second Half of your Week!

A Few More Rounds Of Showers and Storms, Before The Heat Starts Building In!

A few more areas of low pressure and chances of precpitation are expected to move through Southern Manitoba over the next couple of days, as the ridge takes a while longer to build in than first thought.                                                                                                    

A look at the probability of seeing precipitation over 2mm for the time period of July 6th to July the 10th. Chances of precipitation range from 50 to 60% for most of the interlake and the parklands region, while most of Southern Manitoba and the Red River Valley will have a 70 to 80% chance of seeing some kind of precipitation.

The Ridge that was previously forecast to form and move into Southern Manitoba this weekend instead it has decided to wait a while and not form for a couple of days, this means we will be stuck in a more zonal flow through the weekend until the ridge starts building. Although that means we will have a chance at more rain than first thought, though it is great news for areas that haven't received much rainfall in the province.

T-storms will clear out by late eve.

 

 

T-storms will start at Noon

The next likely shot at seeing rainshowers or thunderstorms will come Saturday in the Afternoon and in the Evening as another area of low pressure moves Southeast through the regions of Southern Manitoba. Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms will fire up along this system as it moves through the RRV during the late afternoon early evening hours. There won't be a threat for significant severe weather tomorrow afternoon, as the parameters look to be fairly low. However there may be a few storms in the afternoon that could become severe, if it happens the severe weather will be very short lived.

As for our Temperatures they will remain being in the high twenties for daytime high's along with temperatures in the 15 to 20C mark for overnight lows. The real heat will start by the beginning of the week as the ridge starts building, temperatures will rise into the mid to high 30's by the end of next week and into next weekend giving us a great shot of summerlike weather.

Another Stormy Day On The Way Tomorrow; Warmer Weather on the Way

Possible showers and storms tomorrow will be welcomed with upper level ridging that will allow for our temperatures to start rising into the 20's and even low 30's later this week into the weekend and next week.

Showers And Storms Likely Tomorrow from Noon Through the Evening hours, in the Interlakes, Winnipeg and most of the Red River Valley.

The rest of the showers and storms will taper off this evening as they move into Ontario along with the main area of low pressure, leaving behind it conditions ranging from partly cloudy to clear across the Southern half of the province. Although temperatures won't be too bad, likely near the  low double digit ranges in all regions of the province it will provide for a very comfortable evening if you are heading out. Tomorrow will be a similar story but not as cloudy. The sun will be out throughout the morning and early afternoon hours allowing our temperatures in Southern Manitoba to rise into the high teens and low twenties, before another small front brushes past the province in the afternoon and evening. As this front slides by expect the formation of showers and storms in the Red River Valley and Eastern Manitoba as the daytime heating is combined with an area of lift along the front. Storms will generally be non severe in nature, although a few could reach severe limits for hail up to toonies and heavy rainfall.

Ridging will build into this weekend

Tomorrow will also mark a shift in our weather pattern, as a ridge starts to build into the province getting our temperatures into a warming trend. That ridge will continue to build into the weekend letting Sunshine take hold over the province and aid in getting a boost of our temperatures and humidity levels. It is definitely going to give us some time to dry out, especially for those in SW Manitoba who have received well over 240mm of rain in the past few weeks.

Today's Tip: A look at the legend of the NWS Weather Map (top picture) 

A Return to Some Stormier Weather

(Information Provided by Brad from A Weather Moment)

Parts of Southern Manitoba will be under an increasing risk for thunderstorms as the week progresses. Heat and some humidity will slowly build into the region, as a trough begins to build over the Rocky Mountains before it tracks eastwards across the Prairie region later this week.

 We will warmer temperatures today as warmer air pushes in behind a warm front that passed through the region overnight. Daytime temperatures should be near the 25C mark through most areas of the RRV. By this afternoon a weak frontal system will be along the international border with a trough extending to the NW towards a low pressure system tracking into Western Manitoba. Showers and possible thunderstorms will develop over SW Manitoba this afternoon and slowly track eastwards into the RRV. According to Brad ``It will mainly be regions through the northern Red River Valley that face the risk for showers or thunderstorms (Portage la Prairie, Winnipeg, Selkirk; as seen in the image above)` The showers and thunderstorms will lift north into the interlake overnight while temperatures drop to the low to mid teens in most of the South.

For Thursday a north to south band of showers with the embedded thunderstorm will likely form over the Red River Valley or the Whiteshell in the afternoon. This line will likely move eastwards and intensify into a band of thunderstorms. The potential exists for 50mm in rainfall accumulations, I will keep a close eye on this as things develop.

Friday looks like it will be a nice day with comfortable humidity and daytime temperatures near 20C. Brad notes that A large MCS is forecast to develop on Friday night in North Dakota, bringing the chance for a stormy and rainy Saturday.