Nice Start to The Weekend; Yet An Unsettled Finish

Beautiful Weather can be expected for the rest of the day today in most of Southern Manitoba with the threat for thunderstorms in some regions, before a more significant thunderstorm threat returns to the Red River Valley tomorrow afternoon and evening as a cold front goes through the region.

Another nice on day continues in Southern Manitoba

Throughout the day today expect conditions to range from a mix of sun cloud to thunderstorms along with warm weather across Southern Manitoba. High Temperatures will climb into the high 20's in Southwest Manitoba, the Red River Valley and in Eastern Manitoba along with comfortable humidity levels. Tomorrow a cold front will begin to work it's way into the Red River Valley.

Storms Poss. Tmrw

It's looking like we may see a small batch of morning cloud cover or rain showers, then some sunshine returning in the afternoon allowing for instability levels to rise likely then giving way to showers and storms as the cold front goes through the Red River Valley. The thunderstorms will be non severe in nature with a few of them likely becoming severe if they get going. The thunderstorms will clear out by evening, giving way to clear skies. Daytime highs will likely be in the range from 23 to 28C in most areas. 

Sunny Skies and seasonal temperatures return to start next week before another potent system brings a chance of rain or storms mid week. It will likely become cooler after this system by maybe a few degrees, not below 18C.

Comments will be provided on my Twitter account (@SouthMBWeather)

Warm Active Weather To Dominate The Start Of August

Warm Temperatures will continue to make an appearance in Southern Manitoba as we will rise into the high 20 Degree range every day for the rest of the week. We will continue to see active conditions as multiple systems move over the province for the second half of the week.

A chance for thunderstorms exits as another trough moves through Southern Manitoba throughout the evening hours. This will be one of the many areas of low pressure systems that will pass through our area.

 We will see a chance for widespread afternoon thunderstorm activity across Southern Manitoba, as a weak disturbance moves through the area. Chances for Thunderstorms will be higher as you go through Western Manitoba and The Interlakes. In fact some are currently making an appearance right now, there is a slight chance a few may reach Winnipeg. The Threat will continue throughout the evening hours as the feature moves through. Before The Day is done temperatures should reach the 24C to 28C mark, along with nice temperatures from 12 to 17C Overnight. We will see nicer weather conditions for thursday with no precipitation expected and temperatures in the high 20's or low thirties.

Another Powerful Low Pressure System is set to make an entrance into The Province on Thursday Night as it pushes showers and thunderstorms out ahead of it into SouthWestern Manitoba that will last through until the morning when things clear out. The Low will sit over Southern Manitoba on the day Friday likely giving an enhanced severe weather threat given the instabilty that will be in place. Severe Storms with Large hail and damaging winds cannot be ruled out. There will be a chance for heavy rain/thunderstorms on Friday Night as the backside of the system wraps around. Saturday will be fairly cool at around 20C, as cool air filters in behind the system. Although the rest of the weekend will be a lot nicer with temperatures rebounding back up to 30 degrees.

Have A great Second Half of your Week!

Hot Weather Expected To Continue For The Weekend

The hot weather will continue for Southern Manitoba through this weekend, but chances for unsettled weather will return for the second half of the weekend, as a trough swings through the region.

 A look at 850 MB Temperatures For Saturday, Tip: Add 13C to the temperature you see on the map to get the actual forecast temperature for your region.

The warm weather will continue tonight, with temperatures hovering near 20C across the southern half of the province. Tomorrow will also be a nice day across the Southern Part of the province with temperatures around the thirty degree mark along with a nice breeze from the west. Due to the heat that will be present tomorrow afternoon there will be a chance for pop up thunderstorms in Regions West of the Red River Valley such as Pilot Mound, Manitou, Brandon,Virden and Melita regions. The storms will mainly be non severe in nature, although they may strengthen to severe limits if they get going. Areas around the Western Red River Valley may also have a chance of seeing storms tomorrow afternoon.

GEM GLB Model for Monday at 12am, notice how precipitation is hovering over the southern portion of the province in a linear manner. That indicates it will either be heavy rainshowers or thunderstorm activity.

Sunday Thunderstorms are Possible

The day on Sunday will be sunny and warm with temperatures reaching the high twenties along with a southeast wind from 15 to 30 km/h before things start turning unsettled in the evening ahead of another trough. It currently appears that there will be a potential for thunderstorms some severe in the evening hours due to the amount of daytime heating that will go on through the afternoon hours on the day Sunday ahead of the trough. Thunderstorm activity will be more likely during the overnight hours on Sunday into Monday as the main trough goes through, with the storms clearing out before morning. Rainfall Accumulations will widely depend on the thunderstorm activity, I would expect that general amounts would be near or around 5mm in most areas. Locally higher in thunderstorms. 

As for the week next week looking like it will be a nice one with temperatures remaining in the high twenties, with a couple chances for thunderstorms.

I will update on Twitter as needed for changes in this forecast.

A Return to Some Stormier Weather

(Information Provided by Brad from A Weather Moment)

Parts of Southern Manitoba will be under an increasing risk for thunderstorms as the week progresses. Heat and some humidity will slowly build into the region, as a trough begins to build over the Rocky Mountains before it tracks eastwards across the Prairie region later this week.

 We will warmer temperatures today as warmer air pushes in behind a warm front that passed through the region overnight. Daytime temperatures should be near the 25C mark through most areas of the RRV. By this afternoon a weak frontal system will be along the international border with a trough extending to the NW towards a low pressure system tracking into Western Manitoba. Showers and possible thunderstorms will develop over SW Manitoba this afternoon and slowly track eastwards into the RRV. According to Brad ``It will mainly be regions through the northern Red River Valley that face the risk for showers or thunderstorms (Portage la Prairie, Winnipeg, Selkirk; as seen in the image above)` The showers and thunderstorms will lift north into the interlake overnight while temperatures drop to the low to mid teens in most of the South.

For Thursday a north to south band of showers with the embedded thunderstorm will likely form over the Red River Valley or the Whiteshell in the afternoon. This line will likely move eastwards and intensify into a band of thunderstorms. The potential exists for 50mm in rainfall accumulations, I will keep a close eye on this as things develop.

Friday looks like it will be a nice day with comfortable humidity and daytime temperatures near 20C. Brad notes that A large MCS is forecast to develop on Friday night in North Dakota, bringing the chance for a stormy and rainy Saturday. 

Warmer with a Chance for Thunderstorms

(Weather Information provided in part by Brad from A Weather Moment and by Mike the Author)

A weak trough moving across SW Manitoba today will push into the Red River Valley this evening, producing some scattered showers or thunderstorms. Thing's look to clear out quickly, and we will be getting temperatures in the mid to high 20's for the weekend.


Forecasted rainfall from the GEM-GLB Model, from 00Z friday to 12Z saturday

We will have a little bit more of an unsettled day today as we see a weak surface trough feature move through our area in the Red River Valley this afternoon. Temperatures will climb to to over the 20C mark this afternoon before showers or thunderstorms develop over sections of Southwest Manitoba and push eastwards into the Red River Valley. According to Brad "Dynamics begin to fall apart as the afternoon progresses, and any showers or thunderstorms will struggle to survive in an increasingly disorganized environment." It looks like the best chance of seeing some rain potential will be through the Western Red River Valley, with chances diminishing east of the Red River. By the time the trough sets up shop in the whiteshell, the threat of Precipitation will likely be over.
Saturday will be a gorgeous day as we see sunshine dominate across Southern Manitoba and daytime highs will climb to around 25C. Things will turn a little bit more unsettled overnight on Saturday as an area of rain and storms blossom's over Southern Saskatchewan and heads our way. The exact location of the rain and storms is still uncertain, however best indications are that we will see a cloudy day in the Red River Valley with the bulk of the rain passing north of the City. areas likely in the interlake area will receive rainfall, with only a small chance for showers or storms for Winnipeg and South. I will keep an eye on this system as the weekend progresses.

Cool Stormy Weather on The Way For the Weekend

Manitoban's get ready for a wakeup call, the next few days are going to be ridiculously cold with daytime highs over 10°C below the normal and overnight lows over 5°C below the normal. The sun will make only a couple appearances over the next few days as another forecasted storm system pushes into Southern Manitoba, bringing another round of rain and a few possible strong thunderstorms to the Red River Valley, especially near the border.

The 850 MB Temps forecasted by the GFSX Model for tonight at 00Z ( 7pm), as temps will cool with the passage of a trough.

This downright cool weather has brought late-season snow to several communities in Western Manitoba including The Pas, Flin Flon and higher elevations over SW Manitoba. Areas that received snow in higher elevations were Swan River, Duck Mountain, Porcupine Provincial Forest and Riding Mountain. (Even Rob wrote out an article on the snowfall event, read up on his perspective here) Just be glad we never experienced any snow in our region.

Tonight, there is a high threat potential for frost in most of Southern Manitoba, as we see the arrival of another surface ridge and clearing skies. Areas most at risk for frost tonight appears to be in all of the southwestern portion of the province into the park lands, east into the RRV especially areas north of the transcanada highway. The threat also extends east through Winnipeg towards the Ontario border. Areas not included in the risk for frost are along the American Border. There currently is a frost warning in place for almost the whole southern section of the province view the map here.

 Tomorrow will be a transitioning day with temperatures reaching the 12 to 17C range in all of the south, with cloud streaming northwards from the Dakota's with the next system. Rain will push up towards the American Border by morning, likely staying south of the border all day tomorrow. The rain will stay south of the border until the big northward push comes on Sunday.

Showers and Storms will be likely throughout the day on Sunday in Southern Manitoba, as the system pushes North. As shown by the NWS Weather Maps.

Potential for more showers on Monday

And quite the push it will be! Rain and Isolated Thunderstorms will be going on throughout Saturday night south of the border, although the storms will likely weaken by sunrise and the rain will slowly push northwards across the Red River Valley. Most regions across Southern Manitoba should expect the showers to start fairly early on Sunday and last throughout the day, with the possibility for the formation of non-severe storms especially in the RRV during the late afternoon,evening. The rain and possible storms will taper off west to east overnight and will clear out. With another potential for showers Monday as this significant weekend system brings wraparound showers, while it leaves our province. Overall rainfall amounts in Southern Manitoba can be expected to be in between 5 and 10mm in showers,(at least 30+mm) amounts in storms. And inbetween 20 and 30 mm in western manitoba where you will be closer to the heavier rain.This really isn't the best of news for this year's teddy bear picnic, but hopefully it won't dampen their fun and spirits. 

This likely will be the last cold blast of the season, before we start experiencing some warmer May like weather, and some hot June temperatures. That is a long ways away from now, so let's have a look at the improving weather after this rainfall....  Conditions do look like they will improve through the middle of next week, with temperatures pushing back towards the 20C degree mark and some sunny conditions making an appearance. In the mean time put on some PJ's or slippers and kick back and relax as this weekend will be a stay at home weekend. Except for the storm chasers out there who may want to storm chase on Sunday here or in North Dakota if conditions follow through.

More Showers and Thunderstorms on the way for Parts of southern Manitoba

While temperatures will soar to near 30 degrees today, the Red River Valley should be prepared for showers and possible thunderstorms to develop by mid towards late afternoon. This will result from a low pressure system that will move into the area and tap into heat and moisture.

Temperature outlook from the weathernetwork

According to A Weather Moment " A strong capping inversion will be in place over the Red River Valley, heat and moisture being pumped northwards will be trapped at the surface, allowing our temperature to soar to the 30°C mark and pooling moisture that will push our dewpoints up to around 15°C". Today will will be a glorious day throughout the morning and early afternoon. Although conditions will start to breakdown by late afternoon as a surface low lifts north into Southern Manitoba.

According to A Weather Moment "The surface low will travel along a pre-existing surface trough and be supported by a shortwave ejecting northeastwards from the main upper trough, still anchored through Montana and Wyoming. As well With the heat trapped near the surface, the Lifted Index is expected to drop to the -2 to -8 values, with the lowest values running along a line from Gretna, MB to Bisset, MB and increasing to the southeast of that line. The heat combined with ample moisture is also expected to produce high CAPE values generally from 2000 to 3000J/kg. Increasing mid-level lapse rates with the approach of the shortwave will provide enough destabilization to erode the capping inversion through the afternoon and allow showers and thunderstorms to develop along and ahead of the warm front, initially concentrated near the triple point of the system. The showers and thunderstorms will expand in coverage as the evening progresses and the low-level jet intensifies." 

The severe weather threat is well defined says brad from A Weather Moment,"as EHI values rise to between 1.5-2.0 by late afternoon, which when combined with the presence of 30-35kt of bulk shear certainly presents the chance for supercell storms to develop. A few things hamper my excitement, though:

• Bulk shear isn’t really all that impressive; the really good shear moves through Western Manitoba through the day today, lifting northwards into the Interlake. The shear diminishes to the SE and isn’t particularly strong where the greatest CAPE is. When it comes down to it, it’s likely that we’ll end up with marginally strong shear on top of marginally high CAPE this afternoon, with the most favorable conditions missing each other.
• CAPE values may be too high. The NAM & GFS have been forecasting dewpoints slightly higher than have materialized. The amount of energy for storms to work with is going to be heavily dependant on the dewpoints that develop this afternoon, and if they don’t make it as high as forecast then we’ll be seeing weaker storms.
• Too many storms. With so many marginally severe features, we may see quite a few showers and thunderstorms develop this afternoon as the cap erodes. If too many fire off, then it will be difficult for any one storm to oragnize itself into anything that poses a severe weather threat."

All that being said, a potential for severe weather does exist today across south-central and southeast Manitoba. The main threats should severe weather develop will be hail and/or the possibility of a tornado."

Severe Weather threat as highlighted by Brad

Overall everyone should be on the lookout for severe weather and or Storms, as well updates will be available on Twitter.

Mild Summer Temperatures Expected to Return with The Arrival of Thunderstorms

After a week of experiencing rain, and cool temperatures, the sun shines and summer returns. Beautiful weather is on the way for all regions of Southern Manitoba, with lots and lots of sunshine and the years first hot summer like- temperatures. The Weather will return right back to normal on Friday, after we see a cold front sweep across southern Manitoba through Thursday and Thursday Night.
 

Ridging indicated at 12hr- 28hr in Southern Manitoba on this Upper Level Forecast Map, before the cold front goes through. Yellow is the Polar Jet, Orange is the Subtropical Jet.

A southerly flow has moved into Southern Manitoba below a upper ridge that is sliding east over the Canadian Prairies, pushing the warm flow of temperatures from the Plains of the USA into our area. Temperatures will climb into the 20's all across the south Today with winds increasing to in between 30 and 40km/h out of the south by this afternoon. Temperatures will drop to the low teens across Southern Manitoba Tonight, as the southerly winds will help keep our temperatures up in the warmer areas. Tomorrow the real heat moves into the South with temperatures in between 22-29C. The air might feel a little more humid ( like 30C) with dewpoints in the low teens.

Thunderstorm Threat for Thursday Night from the A Weather Moment Blog

The hot weather is expected to end by Friday afternoon as winds shift around to the North, but not before we see thunderstorms. A cold Front is expected to cross parts of SW Manitoba and South Central Manitoba Throughout the day on Thursday, reaching the Red River Valley by Thursday evening. As it encounters a hot humid air mass and high dewpoints it could allow for some strong to severe storms to form either west of the Red River valley or in the Red River Valley. Any storms that form will be able to work with Cape indices at an elevated level of 500 to 750 J/KG. Regardless the storms will follow the southerly flow out ahead of the front so they will likely come from the south, and move east with the cold front. They will gradually move into NW Ontario as the night goes on. A brief period of cooler weather can be expected on the weekend before thing's warm up into the high 20's during next week with the approach of the northerly shift in the Subtropical Jet stream.

Above Normal Summerlike Temperatures Expected to Return Sunday



7 day forecast

Sunday Temps



Area of low pressure for Sunday
Night

After a couple days with below normal temperatures, a southerly flow will be setting up to allow for early summerlike mild temperatures to return for southern Manitoba. We have been Under the influence of a strong arctic surface ridge according to a Weather Moment Blog, which has reduced our daytime highs to inbetween 5 and 10C below the normal across southern Manitoba. Overall here is how thing's should pan out, we will see mostly sunny skies with high's in the low teens across the south. Sunday will mark the start of our warmup as the southern low pressure shortwave heads our way after stalling out in Eastern Montana for day or two. We should see temperatures probably climb into the high teens on Sunday with a mix of sun and clouds before the system that stalled moves in overnight Sunday. For next week, Monday looks rainy with a potential for thunderstorms if we reach 20C. Then skies are expected to clear and become sunny with highs forecast to surpass 20C. 

3rd Spring Storm System of the year set to roll in tomorrow

The seasons third storm system will start moving through southern Manitoba tonight through until Saturday afternoon. Bringing with it some seasonal temperatures, breezy conditions and the possibility of rain as well as thunderstorms. Not before we see one more day of nice weather in Southern Manitoba.

Conditions will continue to be pleasant across southern Manitoba, except for the odd couple of showers or storms in the SW, temperatures will be near 20C. There will also be a strong SE wind blowing near 40 km/h, it is a great ending to the beautiful weather we have experienced today.

Tonight an area of low pressure from Montana will enter SW MB and gradually lift to the NE as the night progresses, reaching the red river valley tomorrow afternoon. This will bring an area of rain and possible thunderstorms to southern manitoba tonight and most of tomorrow. Rainfall amounts will fall inbetween 5-10mm or locally higher in thunderstorms. This system will pull out saturday and allow for a NW flow to develop bringing cooler conditions, and possible below average temperatures.

 I will post more details in the comments section...

Springtime Storm System to bring some Cooler Weather to the Province this weekend

An area of low pressure tracking through Western and Central areas of the province will bring wet weather, cooler temperatures and windy conditions to most of southern Manitoba. Although we have one more day of nice weather to spare. Get out there and enjoy it!

 Current Temperatures as of 3pm CDT

Conditions will be fairly typical across the southern Part of the Province for the rest of the day today with forecast conditions ranging from sunny skies to possible thunderstorms. Temperatures will continue to remain in the 20C range, before they cool throughout the evening to end up with overnight lows in the single digits. The winds will also be strong out of the south at 40km/h gusting to 60 km/h at times. It is another amazing end to a beautiful week with regards to the above normal temperatures.

NOAA HPC Weather Map for Tonight at 06Z

Tonight an area of low pressure will move out of Southeast Saskatchewan and will move through the parklands of Manitoba into the interlake. Featured with this low is a very powerful 40kt LLJ, Some Moderate Levels of Moisture and Moderate levels of CAPE, combine them together it will allow for some potential for showers and even areas of elevated convection to occur overnight in some southern sections. This is what we call nocturnal thunderstorms as they occur during the overnight. The main focus for storms tonight will be in Western North Dakota, as some may form in that region and lift northward into Parts of Southern Manitoba as the low travels to the NE. The cold front will go through the southern part of the province Saturday morning, bringing a chance of showers and the odd rumble of thunder or two; indications are that there will be a greater chance for rainfall in central/eastern southern Manitoba then in SW MB. After the passage of the cold front expect mainly sunny conditions with a chance for off and on showers, along with for some strong westerly winds.

Total accumulated precipitation via 48hrs

The wrap-around precipitation will begin to move into the Red River valley on Saturday night, with colder air diving to the south on the backside of the low. Current indications are that most of the precipitation will fall as snow and that the northern regions of the RRV has a higher chance of seeing flurries than the southern half. The low will continue to lift to the NE through the day on Sunday, pulling the wrap- around circulation northwards with it and out of the northern Red River valley. Most areas in the red river valley will likely see a tiny bit of snow on Sunday (about a trace), however the only areas that might accumulate a cm or two would be north of Winnipeg.

Overall we definitely are being spared with this system as the larger amounts of precipitation are forecast to fall from the Moose Jaw/Regina,Saskatchewan region along a line NE to Swan River and the Pas. The GEM-GLB is currently showing up to 75mm of precipitation, which if that were to fall as snow it would likely end up to 2 feet of snow.
Anyone who is planning to travel Saskatchewan today or on the weekend should adjust accordingly to weather conditions, and make alternate routes when necessary.

After that things will clear out for the start of the week and our temperatures will slowly rebound into the low teens by midweek, and the trend will likely continue into mid April.


Unsettled Weather Expected To Continue

Portions of southern Manitoba will continue to see unsettled weather this weekend, with system after system tracking through our area. Despite the fact we will see more systems go through than what we are used to, we will still see above average summer like weather. We will continue to see cloudy skies today with the chance for the sun to poke through the clouds, at the odd time in the Red River Valley. Temperatures will warm to 7C as we get near the end of the day today. Winnipeg will then have a small chance for more cloud cover or showers as a weak warm front moves through our area.

Early this evening a new area of low pressure will form in Saskatchewan and move east into Manitoba as the night progresses. This area of low pressure will bring the chance for widespread isolated thunderstorms and rainshowers in East Central Saskatchewan throughout the evening hours. As instabilty levels will be quite high considering the MUCAPE will be at 400 J/Kg, LI at -4, and the shear around 40 knots. The cities in Saskatchwan that will likely be affected by the thunderstorm risk and showers include Saskatoon,Regina, Swift Current, Moose Jaw, Prince Albert, and Yorkton. Areas anywhere in the vicinity of this Cold Front could see the odd rumble of thunder or two.

The cold front will then enter into Manitoba around midnight allowing for an area of rain and a very small chance for thunderstorms to blossom near Brandon ( from north to south) and travel east as the night progresses. It will eventually hit the RRV by early in the morning, so don't be surprised if you hear the odd rumble of thunder as the atmosphere will still be a little unstable. Accumulations will be in the broad range from 5 to 15mm South, North and along the Transcanada Highway. Expect it to clear out by late morning, leaving us with sunny skies and beautiful temperatures expected near 15C.

The warmer weather is not meant to last, as yet another low will begin it's trek into the Prairies. Southern Manitoba will get past 20C before more possible clouds push in by mid evening. Light Rain with weak thunderstorms will push into the Red River Valley overnight Sunday and then will intensify Monday morning dropping another 5-10mm of rain, before moving into NW Ontario on Monday Afternoon. The track of these systems will depend of the placements of other weather features. Overall much of the Red River Valley, the next few days will be unsettled with pleasant temperatures in the low-to-mid teens and rain/thunderstorms every 24-36 hours. See Weather Maps from NOAAWatch for info..