Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Mild Summer Temperatures Expected to Return with The Arrival of Thunderstorms

After a week of experiencing rain, and cool temperatures, the sun shines and summer returns. Beautiful weather is on the way for all regions of Southern Manitoba, with lots and lots of sunshine and the years first hot summer like- temperatures. The Weather will return right back to normal on Friday, after we see a cold front sweep across southern Manitoba through Thursday and Thursday Night.
 
Ridging indicated at 12hr- 28hr in Southern Manitoba on this Upper Level Forecast Map, before the cold front goes through. Yellow is the Polar Jet, Orange is the Subtropical Jet.

A southerly flow has moved into Southern Manitoba below a upper ridge that is sliding east over the Canadian Prairies, pushing the warm flow of temperatures from the Plains of the USA into our area. Temperatures will climb into the 20's all across the south Today with winds increasing to in between 30 and 40km/h out of the south by this afternoon. Temperatures will drop to the low teens across Southern Manitoba Tonight, as the southerly winds will help keep our temperatures up in the warmer areas. Tomorrow the real heat moves into the South with temperatures in between 22-29C. The air might feel a little more humid ( like 30C) with dewpoints in the low teens.
Thunderstorm Threat for Thursday Night from the A Weather Moment Blog

The hot weather is expected to end by Friday afternoon as winds shift around to the North, but not before we see thunderstorms. A cold Front is expected to cross parts of SW Manitoba and South Central Manitoba Throughout the day on Thursday, reaching the Red River Valley by Thursday evening. As it encounters a hot humid air mass and high dewpoints it could allow for some strong to severe storms to form either west of the Red River valley or in the Red River Valley. Any storms that form will be able to work with Cape indices at an elevated level of 500 to 750 J/KG. Regardless the storms will follow the southerly flow out ahead of the front so they will likely come from the south, and move east with the cold front. They will gradually move into NW Ontario as the night goes on. A brief period of cooler weather can be expected on the weekend before thing's warm up into the high 20's during next week with the approach of the northerly shift in the Subtropical Jet stream.

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