After a fairly rainy day with mild temperatures we can expect more possible showers overnight, before more unsettled weather pushes in and lasts through midweek.
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| Projected Dewpoint Temperature in Southern Manitoba Tomorrow at Midnight, when convection is forecast to roll through the region. | | |
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Tomorrow,
a low pressure system will push into Northern North Dakota, that will help strengthen the warm front which will be draped across the region. Southern Manitoba will stay north of the warm front keeping our forecast daytime highs in between the 20 to 25C range. Weak capping in parts of Southern Manitoba will result in thunderstorms during the day, that probably won't be severe. The main action likely will come by late evening as we see the development of possible severe thunderstorms as a 30 to 40 Knot low level Jet overides a warm front, that will pump fairly moist air northwards.
According to Brad from A Weather Moment "Dewpoints are forecast to rise into the mid teens, combined with negative lifted indicies, CAPE values are expected to climb close to 1500J/KG."
The area of storms will likely come out of North Dakota, and cross the warm front into Southern Manitoba as they lift Northeastwards.
The question is will they be surface based convection with possible tornadoes, or Elevated Convection with damaging winds and hail. Overall the thunderstorm potential will be tricky to forecast as it is always tends to be, so for the first time in my blog's history details will be available in my comments section as we get closer.
The upper low will move east on Wednesday, allowing for fairer conditions to take place followed by possible showers and storms by the end of the week.
Update May 22nd,2012
Severe thunderstorms are possible today as a cold front will slide through North Dakota allowing for an area of convection to occur by mid afternoon, which may be severe at times. The storms will likely lift north into Southern Manitoba as the front moves eastward. Overall Southern Manitoba will be at threat for storms this evening, for hail, damaging winds, and intense lightning. (This graphic above from Brad's Blog shows the potential).
Area of rain is still hovering over our province, having a hard time moving East. I can tell you one thing it will likely be gone by midnight tonight. View the radar by clicking my name and moving the map up to Manitoba.....
ReplyDeleteIn case you are interested here is the latest weather forecast for winnipeg from Environment Canada
ReplyDeleteTuesday
A few showers ending early in the morning then cloudy. Risk of a thunderstorm early in the morning. Wind becoming east 30 km/h gusting to 50 in the morning. High 20. UV index 3 or moderate.
Tuesday night
Cloudy. Showers at times heavy with thunderstorms beginning early in the evening. Amount 20 mm. Wind east 30 km/h gusting to 50 becoming southwest 20 late in the evening then light before morning. Low 15.
Click my name to access Environment Canada's website
I will likely have an update tomorrow morning, for this post as the forecasted weather will change overnight.
ReplyDeletePotential for storms still remain, as a area of convection will likely form in North Dakota and will move North.
ReplyDeleteAs well the SPC has issued a 5% tornado probability, 30% hail and wind probability over our area. MCS will likely form in North Dakota where LLJ appears best, and will travel through the RRV late evening as storms are forecast just 1 km south of the border.. View the latest graphics on my severe weather forecast graphics page.. Overall we will see how it unfolds tonight
ReplyDeleteThis just in a Tornado Watch has been issued for North Dakota details here.....http://www.crh.noaa.gov/bis/
ReplyDeletedetails from robs blog latest post
ReplyDeleteAnother round of showers and thunderstorms is on tap for southern Manitoba tonight as a low pressure system over the Dakotas pushes a warm front towards the Manitoba border. Warm and increasingly humid air will spread up through the Dakotas today while cooler air remains entrenched over the southern Prairies. The clash of airmasses and favourable dynamics aloft will result in widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms developing later today into this evening across southern Manitoba. The best chance of heaviest thunderstorms will be over the Red River valley and southeast MB where strong to locally severe thunderstorms from the Dakotas will be tracking across the border by this evening, as well as developing along the warm front. Main threat with these storms will be large hail and strong winds, with areas of very heavy rain (25-50 mm) possible. A secondary area of heavy rain is also likely through the Interlake regions tonight into Wednesday as an upper low over southern Saskatchewan tracks slowly eastward into the Manitoba lakes region. Conditions are expected to dry out Thursday and Friday for most of southern Manitoba (rain still possible near Ontario border Thursday) before more unsettled weather moves in for the weekend. All in all, a generally unsettled week ahead as we get into a more stormy and variable pattern.
Above details are from Rob's blog at www.robsobsblog.blogspot.ca
ReplyDelete