Major Colorado Low Set To Impact Southern Manitoba

 Get ready southern Manitoba another round of significant winter weather is on the way and this is one of those storm systems that we've been keeping in our eye on for the last couple of days. This Colorado low low pressure system is likely going to be impacting our region within the next 24 to 48 hours various weather impacts will be included including freezing rain, snow, blowing snow as well as a slight risk of thunderstorms in extreme southeastern Manitoba. We will have full information in this weather blog updates, the important thing to keep in mind is that the low pressure system could change location within the next while which may change precipitation impacts. 

The rest of the night in southern Manitoba will be generally cloudy with some. Of clearing this will be very sparse though unfortunately if you're looking for a clearing spot for the upcoming lunar eclipse tonight is definitely not gonna be that fortunate for Eclipse viewing. Tonight's temperatures will remain well within our seasonal range of the minus one to minus seven degrees Celsius range.

Tomorrow (Friday) the Colorado pressure system will begin to move into southern Manitoba ahead of it very warm mild air for this time of year will filter into the southeastern parts of the province temperatures during the afternoon will rise into the lower single digits with areas of southwestern Manitoba just only being able to nudge up to the zero to minus 1 or - 2 degree mark. So the weather pattern does look like there will be a possibility of some increasing chances for showers in southeastern Manitoba during the afternoon because there will be maker or very low levels of instability there is a very slight chance that some of these showers could produce some thunder. My concern goes towards the latter half of the day when lights to moderate snowfall will begin in southwestern Manitoba as we move a little bit further to the east. The low pressure system will be bringing in freezing rain mixed with ice pellets more than likely this will be in the form of freezing rain given the fact that this region will be in the transition part between above zero temperatures and below zero temperatures. I haven't been able to look at the temperature profile in the upper levels however models have been consistent at bringing in moderate freezing rain over the Red River valley during the late afternoon into the evening. Yesterday the NA MNES T model was suggesting upwards of 12 to thirty millimeters of freezing rain, Most of the weather models have been struggling to capture the moisture content of this low pressure system. The more recent run of the models is suggesting that the region of Winnipeg including Elie East to the Ontario border could be dealing with heavy snow mixed with freezing rain by the evening. Environment Canada has forecast rain in Winnipeg with a high of plus 3C. Southwestern Manitoba is at a higher potential risk for the development of snow and blowing snow highway travel will be difficult during the daytime and I will have a snowfall forecast map below these summaries, despite not much in the way of snowfall accumulations. 

Friday Night: During the mid to late evening hours areas of southeastern Manitoba will begin to start seeing snow mixed with freezing rain then transition over to heavy snowfall before tapering off towards the early morning hours the good thing about that slow pressure system is that it will be fast moving. Regardless when the temperatures drop below zero during the latter half of the evening lot of this rain will begin to freeze on contact if it hasn't already with either rain or freezing rain both will freeze with temperatures going down below zero. My main concern is a possible increased risk of power outages as well as traffic accidents and given the fact that road conditions will be quite poor during this time frame any highway travel is not suggested and Justin has also mentioned that with the snow coming in conditions will become difficult to drive in. 

Models are also showing the potential for thunderstorms mixed in with the freezing rain  in southern Manitoba tomorrow night as the freezing rain moves into the region before the snow begins after midnight. 

Temperatures on Friday night will likely drop while into the minus single digits some areas of southwestern Manitoba may see value is more typical of February with anywhere between minus ten to minus fifteen degrees Celsius. Wind chill also has to be factored in as well with these temperatures as winds will become out of the northwest.

Information on total precipitation amounts;

Red River Valley and southeastern Manitoba Freezing rain threat: Total amount anywhere between 5 to 10 millimeters with as low as one to two millimeters of ice accumulation. Snowfall will become heavy overnight into the morning with another 10 to 20cm of snow possible in a narrow band as the system moves east.

Southwesterm Manitoba: Despite there being snow and blowing snow accumulations will be well below any reasonable amounts only 2-3 centimeter accumulation is possible in some areas.

Information for the Weekends Weather: Saturday and Sunday look to be a lot calmer, high pressure will begin moving in from the West bringing in a much more stable air mass however temperatures will be cooler than they have been the good news is that this air is modified which is going to basically make things a bit better for us. Daytime high temperatures on the Saturday will be in the minus single digits between minus 1 to minus 8 degrees Celsius overnight into Sunday temperatures in the low it to mid minus teens are possible with the coldest air in Western Manitoba in higher elevations by the Duck Mountains and Asseippi Provincial Forest. Southern Manitoba will then have temperatures below normal on Sunday night with overnight low values in the minus teens and upper minus single digits.