Stormy Weather On The Way Tonight, Leaving Behind Cooler Weather For the Weekend

With temperatures in the high twenties to low thirties today, a stormy night will take over as a cold front slides through Southern Manitoba and the Northern Plains. The cold front will knock down temperatures for the start of the weekend, as a NW breeze kicks in blowing air down from the Arctic.

A cold front will move through tonight sparking off showers and numerous thunderstorms

Until the day is done we will see temperatures rise into the high 20's low thirties across southern Manitoba with any leftover cloudcover clearing out. It should be a perfect sunset before things take a turn for the worst this evening as a cold front moves through the southern portion of the province until morning. Showers and numerous thunderstorms should develop along the front itself in the early to mid evening, likely growing in coverage as the night wears on. The showers and thunderstorms will move  the regions in the Red River Valley overnight, bringing a good 15mm to the area. The potential exists for some regions to receive over an inch of rain and a fantastic lightning show, likely the last of the year in Manitoba. Severe Weather will be possible tonight in North Dakota, and a slim chance in Manitoba meaning large hail and damaging winds the main threats.

Things should clear out for tomorrow making way for sunny skies and cooler temperatures near the mid twenties, with a light West to Southwest wind. Warmer Weather will be possible at the start of next week with high's near 30C. Take care during the storms everyone!

Hot Sunny Weather Continues For The Rest Of The Week

Southern Manitoba will be lounging in sunny hot weather for the rest of the week as upper level ridging moves east across the prairie provinces. The province will see a chance for thunderstorms on Thursday Morning through until the evening as a cold front pushes through. The Sunny and hot Weather will return for Friday.

850 MB Temperatures for Wednesday at 6pm. Look how warm it is in Southern Manitoba 20C+ 850 MB Temperatures. Meaning 30C Weather! Woohoo!

 A southerly flow ahead of an incoming upper level ridge has already pumped temperatures to the 30C mark in some places yesterday and today. So with 850 MB Temperatures near or above 20C we will see daytime highs soar from 30 to 34C today, before the day is done. The warm air that will be in place over the south will also create warmer overnight temperatures. Considering we have had cooler nights with temperatures in the mid teens, tonight we will barely dip below the 20C mark in some places. Other regions may feel cooler, although only about by 5 degrees (10 to 15C) especially in the Southwest and in the Parkland’s. There also will be a risk of thunderstorms overnight as the cold front advances eastwards in the Western Portion of Manitoba.

Tomorrow will be another warm one, however an approaching cold front will move along the international border through the day, bringing some showers and storms through the morning to SW MB and the risk of more thunderstorms to the Red River Valley from Winnipeg and maybe all the way to Fargo. If storms develop they will likely form in the late afternoon along the surface feature. They will probably develop more in North Dakota then in Manitoba, less of a chance in Winnipeg.

Despite the hot weather that will be in place and daytime high's near 30C, severe weather indicies look fairly weak so I probably won't expect any severe weather when they form. The better chances for severe weather will remain in North Dakota.

We will see our temperatures dip into the mid teens on Thursday Night, and Friday looks beautiful with the sunshine and temperatures near 30C continuing. For the weekend it looks like we could have a cold front sweep through Saturday, bringing the threat of more showers and thunderstorms along with cooler weather. So as a result Saturday's daytime high will be in the mid to high 20's. Temperatures will likely rebound for Sunday with them returning to the high 20's.

After that temperatures look to stay warm and beautiful for next week!

Anyone Order Cooler Weather?

Colder than normal weather conditions will be expected this week over Southern Manitoba as another upper level disturbance crosses over Southern Manitoba midweek, bringing behind it cooler air. This will mark the start of another pattern change that could stay in place for a few weeks.

A powerful low pressure system will cross Southern Manitoba through the Night Tuesday and Through Wednesday, bringing behind it cooler weather for the second half of the week. The Welcome relief banner is published in this picture as the cool air will bring releif to those that experienced unrelenting heat in the upper states. Especially in Chicago. This photo is from The Weather Channel.

 

To start off the night tonight we will experience clear or clearing skies in Southern Manitoba, along with light winds either out of the north or the northwest allowing for our temperatures to drop past the 10 degree mark. So we will likely see temperatures in and around the 7 to 10C mark overnight, however that will allow for some patchy fog to develop considering how warm the ground is and how cool the air will be. Usually in this situation moisture usually develops especially near the ground. Any leftover fog should clear out by sunrise leaving behind sunny skies and temperatures rising into the low to mid 20's (from about 22C to 26C),  before more cloudcover rolls in ahead of the next system in the evening as the high pressure we are under departs. Temperatures in general for this period should be in the high 20's, and in Winnipeg the normal high temperature should be 25C/ low temperature 12C.

Another cold front will move through MB Wed Morning

The pattern change looks like will be in store for us by midweek. It looks like a major cold front will swing through Southern Manitoba through Tuesday Night and into the day Wednesday. The timing on this front may change, so I will update as needed. With the approach of this front expect showers and thunderstorms to generate over the Parkland’s Tuesday Evening and spread south-eastwards as the night progresses. The showers and storms will eventually travel into the Red River Valley, during the morning hours likely in a line and they would possibly exit the province by afternoon. The thunderstorms would likely become non severe with general threats below the severe threshold. Meaning lightning, rainfall in excess of 20 mm or less, small hail, and weak wind gusts. The remnants of this cold front will bring pop up showers and thunderstorms being fairly weak and disorganized in general to most parts of southern Manitoba. Temperatures would likely be in the low twenties throughout the day Wednesday, with cooler weather expected by the end of the day as a cool Northwest wind takes shape behind the front. 

Throughout the second half of the week we will likely see some cooler days with temperatures in the high teens to low twenties, as the low moves eastward. Looking ahead to the next couple of weeks, it appears difficult to predict. (I have found the following using the jet stream forecast model). With a ridge out west and a blocking pattern out East will be stuck in-between the two, meaning the likely trend will be seasonal weather until that blocking pattern moves on. After that, the ridge could either keep moving East or flatten out bringing us the same seasonal weather or another warm period. I will keep an eye on the situation and let you know how it plays out. 

Nice Start to The Weekend; Yet An Unsettled Finish

Beautiful Weather can be expected for the rest of the day today in most of Southern Manitoba with the threat for thunderstorms in some regions, before a more significant thunderstorm threat returns to the Red River Valley tomorrow afternoon and evening as a cold front goes through the region.

Another nice on day continues in Southern Manitoba

Throughout the day today expect conditions to range from a mix of sun cloud to thunderstorms along with warm weather across Southern Manitoba. High Temperatures will climb into the high 20's in Southwest Manitoba, the Red River Valley and in Eastern Manitoba along with comfortable humidity levels. Tomorrow a cold front will begin to work it's way into the Red River Valley.

Storms Poss. Tmrw

It's looking like we may see a small batch of morning cloud cover or rain showers, then some sunshine returning in the afternoon allowing for instability levels to rise likely then giving way to showers and storms as the cold front goes through the Red River Valley. The thunderstorms will be non severe in nature with a few of them likely becoming severe if they get going. The thunderstorms will clear out by evening, giving way to clear skies. Daytime highs will likely be in the range from 23 to 28C in most areas. 

Sunny Skies and seasonal temperatures return to start next week before another potent system brings a chance of rain or storms mid week. It will likely become cooler after this system by maybe a few degrees, not below 18C.

Comments will be provided on my Twitter account (@SouthMBWeather)

Nice Weather Expected to Continue, Becoming Unsettled For The Weekend

After a rainy weekend and a glorious start to the week, it is looking like the sunny and warm trend will continue for several days ahead as a ridge of high pressure starts building into the Eastern Prairies Including Manitoba. As a result we can expect to see temperatures in the mid to high 20's during the time period. Although we will see a very slight chance for some showers and thunderstorms today as an area of small low pressure slides through the area. Another area of low pressure is forecast to move in For Friday and Saturday bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms once again.

An area of High Pressure is expected to gradually build over Manitoba in the coming days, it is not shown on the map though it is find in the big circle in Northern Manitoba.

There is a chance for a shower or thunderstorm over Southern Manitoba this afternoon as a trough moves southwards as it heads into North Western Ontario, the best chances will remain to the East through the Whiteshell regions and in SW Manitoba. Everything should organize and drift south and eastwards out of the province by evening hours.

Next on the headlines, it is looking like a fairly strong ridge of high pressure will continue to build into Northern Manitoba, and it is looking like it will strengthen to almost be at 1030 mb by tomorrow morning. The axis will be from The Red River Valley Northeast into Hudson Bay and James Bay. The system will ensure sunny and clear skies over the period of the next few days, limiting clouds only to fair weather cumulus and as well allow for a southerly flow to take place over the southern portion of the province. This would usually result in hot temperatures and high humidity but in this case it will provide less humidity and more normal temperatures. Instead of this high pressure system being created by a ridge, this is one that will be created by a trough of  cold air descending from the Arctic. The southerly flow that will develop over southern Manitoba will be a return flow of air out of the high pressure system  instead of being a warm moist flow from the Gulf of Mexic. Leaving our temperatures slow to climb as each day progresses and dewpoints only rising into the low to mid teens.

Friday Saturday will be another stormy few days as another low moves into the province,scattered thunderstorms and showers will both be possible on these days with accumulations nearing 5mm in showers and higher amounts of course in thunderstorms. Severe weather will be possible on Friday in Southern Manitoba as highlighted by The Prairie Arctic Storm Prediction Centre based in Winnipeg.

Next Week looks like it will continue to be nice with Temperatures in the high twenties along with lots of sunshine.

I could not have found out some of these detail's if it weren't for Brad from

A Weather Moment

Warm Active Weather To Dominate The Start Of August

Warm Temperatures will continue to make an appearance in Southern Manitoba as we will rise into the high 20 Degree range every day for the rest of the week. We will continue to see active conditions as multiple systems move over the province for the second half of the week.

A chance for thunderstorms exits as another trough moves through Southern Manitoba throughout the evening hours. This will be one of the many areas of low pressure systems that will pass through our area.

 We will see a chance for widespread afternoon thunderstorm activity across Southern Manitoba, as a weak disturbance moves through the area. Chances for Thunderstorms will be higher as you go through Western Manitoba and The Interlakes. In fact some are currently making an appearance right now, there is a slight chance a few may reach Winnipeg. The Threat will continue throughout the evening hours as the feature moves through. Before The Day is done temperatures should reach the 24C to 28C mark, along with nice temperatures from 12 to 17C Overnight. We will see nicer weather conditions for thursday with no precipitation expected and temperatures in the high 20's or low thirties.

Another Powerful Low Pressure System is set to make an entrance into The Province on Thursday Night as it pushes showers and thunderstorms out ahead of it into SouthWestern Manitoba that will last through until the morning when things clear out. The Low will sit over Southern Manitoba on the day Friday likely giving an enhanced severe weather threat given the instabilty that will be in place. Severe Storms with Large hail and damaging winds cannot be ruled out. There will be a chance for heavy rain/thunderstorms on Friday Night as the backside of the system wraps around. Saturday will be fairly cool at around 20C, as cool air filters in behind the system. Although the rest of the weekend will be a lot nicer with temperatures rebounding back up to 30 degrees.

Have A great Second Half of your Week!

July to End Hot and Stormy

After a round of active weather the past couple of days in Southern Manitoba, we can expect a short reprieve with a return to hot and humid weather for the end of July.

A look at Temperatures for the last day in July at 850MB, just add 13C onto the temperature legend you see in your region on the map.

The month of July will decidedly end just as it started, in the same fashion with the never-ending very warm weather. Sunny Skies and temperatures anywhere from the high twenties to low thirties can be expected for the rest of the day although there may be some cloudcover from general daytime heating. Nothing like what went on Yesterday through the Red River Valley. Winds will make for a comfortable breeze as they blow out of the Northwest, likely blowing some smoke from any ongoing Forest Fires in northern Manitoba southwards into the region. The night ahead will also be fairly nice as winds continue to blow out of the northwest in various locations, any leftover cloudcover will clear as we lose daytime heating. When we lose daytime heating our temperatures cool off so as a result we expect our temperatures to cool down to around 17 degrees tonight in Winnipeg with the outlying regions in the mid teens. 

Tomorrow will be a similar day, although we will have to contend with some thunderstorm activity mainly in Southwest Manitoba and the Western Red River Valley as another system decides to slide through the region. Currently it is looking like some of the storms could end up being pop up scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours as daytime heating and the system plays a role in triggering the storms. Given that we will have high amounts of instability in place I cannot rule out the possibility of some severe thunderstorms once they get going. By Mid Evening things could turn into a MCS once the storms bundle and organize themselves, this means that the Red River Valley and eastern Manitoba would be at threat as they would move Eastwards from the point of there origination and create threats of Strong Winds in Excess of 100 km/h, Heavy Rain, Intense Lightning and Large Hail. It is unclear as to what exactly what will happen with the Thunderstorm Complex or MCS at this moment, so I will keep everyone informed about the situation as we get closer to the evening hours Tomorrow. As for tomorrow's Temperatures they will once again feel hot and muggy as we approach or surpass the 30C Degree mark in Manitoba Tomorrow.

The First Couple of days into August are expected to continue to remain hot. High Temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday should reach or surpass 30C with a risk of some severe weather on Wednesday in the Southern Portion Of the province, too far ahead to tell exactly what will go on. I will keep you informed.  Thursday should be sunny and warm as well with little humidity with the Heat Continuing. For Friday we may again be in for another rough ride, several sources have noted that there could be a potential for a thunderstorm outbreak in Manitoba on this day. It is something to watch as well. Comments will be available on Twitter throughout the coming days detailing the severe weather potential.

Warm Dry Weather To Continue with Thunderstorm Chances

Potential for Thunderstorms exist over The southern Portion of the province on Sunday as a Low pressure System Flattens the ridge

Precipitation will continue to be non existent over Southern Manitoba as the Warm Temperatures persist and the ridge in the jetstream holds it's place over the Province. Mainly sunny Skies daytime temperatures near 30C and nightime t
emperatures in the teens can be expected over the next 24 hours as a few low pressure systems travel through Northern Manitoba, leaving the rainy weather up there. Humidity levels will be lower and more comfortable today and through the rest of the weekend.

As for our precipitation not much can be expected in the region, although there will still be a couple chances but general amounts will be fairly low. The Chances look like they will be on Sunday as a low pressure system moves eastwards out of Saskatchewan through the Interlake Areas and parts of the Red River Valley. A Weather Moment Noted that "Models are suggesting that a band of nocturnal thunderstorms will push into Southern Manitoba on Saturday night and push eastwards before dying around mid-morning." After the storms clear out, nicer weather will be on the menu with sunny skies and beautiful temperatures near 30C.

Next Week Looks to Continue to Be Hot and Sunny with Thunderstorm Chances returning for the middle of the week into the second half of the week. Details on the thunderstorm potential remains unclear as this is still quite far off. I can tell you if a cold front or trough moves through the region with hot and/or humid weather and with extreme instabilty in place then there would be a risk of severe storms. All given that the cap (warm layer of air at the surface) is not too strong. If you are looking for severe weather chances I would bet on Thursday being the day, in Southern Manitoba as NOAA Weather Models Suggest a trough or front of some kind moving through.

Until then enjoy the Nice Weather, I will be away on Holidays and will not be able to update until the 27th of July or later. Follow my weather Links on the side bar of my blog for weather information while I'm away...

Even Hotter Weather On The Way

Most of  Southern Manitoba will become extremely hot for the second half of this week, with a slight chance for thunderstorm activity in some areas.

A Powerful upper level ridge will once again build in over our region

A powerful upper ridge will make it's way into Southern Manitoba over the next 12 hours. As a result heat will start cranking up in the southern half of the province and could last 3 days at the most. Tonight winds will shift to the south with most temperatures remaining in the high teens for overnight lows. The southerly wind will help clear the air of any leftover haze or smoke that has been hovering around. That will also aid more solar heating of the atmosphere resulting in cooking temperatures throughout the next 3 days. How hot exactly will it get? Models indicate temperatures of 37 to 40C over areas along the international border, while the temperatures further North towards Highway 1 along and South you can expect temperatures of 34 to 37C. Although I think that 40C might be a bit of a stretch on Thursday considering that it hasn't happened for a long time into history, as well as dewpoints sit in the 20's. With the temperature and the dewpoint combined humidex values will be from 40 to 45C across a widespread portion of the province, some places may even feel closer to 50C. It is near certain that we will see temperatures in the mid to high 30's with humidity values making it feel like the 40's It will definitely be a hot day in the southern half of the province. 

NOAA Wx Map at 00UTC Friday

Although there will be a potential for some thunderstorms on Thursday afternoon through until 6am Friday in Southern Manitoba as a front slides through, if storms fire along the front they may become severe given the heat and humidity. If nothing fires we will just see sunny skies, but then again there is a risk given the hot weather.

As for things on Friday daytime highs should be closer to 30C and not as hot as Thursday's 30C+ Temperatures. So thing's will feel a little more comfortable given less heat and humidity. As For the weekend hot weather to continue with isolated storm chances. 

Get Out There and Cool off with a Slurpee and or a Blizzard!

Hot Weather Expected To Continue For The Weekend

The hot weather will continue for Southern Manitoba through this weekend, but chances for unsettled weather will return for the second half of the weekend, as a trough swings through the region.

 A look at 850 MB Temperatures For Saturday, Tip: Add 13C to the temperature you see on the map to get the actual forecast temperature for your region.

The warm weather will continue tonight, with temperatures hovering near 20C across the southern half of the province. Tomorrow will also be a nice day across the Southern Part of the province with temperatures around the thirty degree mark along with a nice breeze from the west. Due to the heat that will be present tomorrow afternoon there will be a chance for pop up thunderstorms in Regions West of the Red River Valley such as Pilot Mound, Manitou, Brandon,Virden and Melita regions. The storms will mainly be non severe in nature, although they may strengthen to severe limits if they get going. Areas around the Western Red River Valley may also have a chance of seeing storms tomorrow afternoon.

GEM GLB Model for Monday at 12am, notice how precipitation is hovering over the southern portion of the province in a linear manner. That indicates it will either be heavy rainshowers or thunderstorm activity.

Sunday Thunderstorms are Possible

The day on Sunday will be sunny and warm with temperatures reaching the high twenties along with a southeast wind from 15 to 30 km/h before things start turning unsettled in the evening ahead of another trough. It currently appears that there will be a potential for thunderstorms some severe in the evening hours due to the amount of daytime heating that will go on through the afternoon hours on the day Sunday ahead of the trough. Thunderstorm activity will be more likely during the overnight hours on Sunday into Monday as the main trough goes through, with the storms clearing out before morning. Rainfall Accumulations will widely depend on the thunderstorm activity, I would expect that general amounts would be near or around 5mm in most areas. Locally higher in thunderstorms. 

As for the week next week looking like it will be a nice one with temperatures remaining in the high twenties, with a couple chances for thunderstorms.

I will update on Twitter as needed for changes in this forecast.

Hot Weather to Continue with More Storms

Southern Manitoba may see the warmest day of the year today as temperatures climb into the mid 30's under the presence of an upper ridge and a somewhat southerly wind. The ridge that is bringing this hot and sunny weather will weaken as several low pressure systems will track through the prairies, bringing us a couple of days of some unsettled weather across the southernmost region of the province.

A look at the 850 MB Temperatures for Wednesday at 6pm

 A nice southwest wind, combined with warmer temperatures under the ridge (22 to 24C at 850MB) today will help Southern Manitoba's temperatures to soar from inbetween 30 and 37C, Winnipeg will get to a Scorching 35C if all regions stick to sunny conditions. Today will definitely be the warmest day of the week, with temperatures returning to around 30C for Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will be mild with the temperatures only cooling to the high teens or low twenties.

A look at just one of the many systems that will affect us over the next few days, this one will affect us throughout tonight and into tomorrow morning. NMRS CB 40,00 Mean severe storms are likely in large numbers.

A number of low pressure systems are also set to track over the southern portions of the province starting this afternoon/evening, which will bring us the risk of thunderstorms late this afternoon,evening, overnight and throughout the day tomorrow. While forecast storm indicies will be signinficant given the heat  and humidity, a lack of shear will make sure that any storms that form will be the slow moving pulse type storms. They likely will strengthen to severe levels, although they will be range from being hit and miss to widespread. The main threat from any of the storms will be large hail, damaging winds, intense lightning, and heavy rains given there speed and intensity. Tornadoes won't be likely due to the lack of windshear, though if one storms can get strong enough it could end up producing a tornado given the high instability. 

Things will clear up for Friday, with a few hit and miss storms in the South east. Another Storm System will make an appearance on the weekend when we will likely see another possible round of storms.

Welcome Back To Hot And Humid Weather!

The week ahead will be another hot one for people living in Southern Manitoba as another ridge of high pressure starts building into the province. Allowing for another significant heatwave to make headlines in the region.

An area of high pressure will build in this week, allowing for hotter weather to return

The week will start off fairly cool for the heatwave with temperatures in the high twenties to near or above thirty degrees in Southern Manitoba on Monday and on Tuesday. Humidity levels likely will remain low on these day's making conditions feel fairly hot and dry. As we get into the middle of the week on Wednesday temperatures will be in the low to mid thirties, with the humidity levels making it feel like 40C or hotter. As a result various regions could have humidex advisories issued by Environment Canada due to the possible 40C+ humidex temperatures that could be in place. Once we get into the late week period temperatures will be around the 30C mark with humidity values remaining fairly high, making it feel still quite tropical.

Potential Exists for Severe Storms On Wednesday Evening/Night in Winnipeg and The Red River Valley, as there will be 4000 J/Kg of CAPE available in the region during that timeframe. Image is provided by Wundermap from Wunderground

The presence of hot humid weather over the Southern Part of the province this week will allow the atmosphere to become very unstable, giving a risk of thunderstorms on many days. With an area of high pressure over our region it makes it difficult to forecast thunderstorms, as high pressure tends to reduce thunderstorm activity. According to one of the blog's I read today mentioned that "the ridge we will be under won't be that good at reducing thunderstorm activity." So in Turn we may be in for more unstable weather than the usual stable weather we see with high pressure. The best chances for thunderstorm activity in Southern Manitoba appears to be during the second half of the week, from Wednesday towards the weekend and the beginning of next week. During the time frame the atmosphere will be very unstable and there will be some weather systems moving our region that could trigger storms. The potential will exist for storms that could be severe at times due to the instability present in the atmosphere. There also could be slow moving storms at times bringing the threat of heavy rainfall and localized flooding, with upwards of 100mm if one storm sits over the same area for an hour or more. The storms will be scattered to numerous during the second half of the week, although they will not be widespread. I will keep everyone updated on the thunderstorm potential with posts on Wednesday and on Friday of this week.

Overall expect a beautiful week with hot temperatures and sunny conditions, with a few days of thunderstorm activity that we may have to contend with.

A Few More Rounds Of Showers and Storms, Before The Heat Starts Building In!

A few more areas of low pressure and chances of precpitation are expected to move through Southern Manitoba over the next couple of days, as the ridge takes a while longer to build in than first thought.                                                                                                    

A look at the probability of seeing precipitation over 2mm for the time period of July 6th to July the 10th. Chances of precipitation range from 50 to 60% for most of the interlake and the parklands region, while most of Southern Manitoba and the Red River Valley will have a 70 to 80% chance of seeing some kind of precipitation.

The Ridge that was previously forecast to form and move into Southern Manitoba this weekend instead it has decided to wait a while and not form for a couple of days, this means we will be stuck in a more zonal flow through the weekend until the ridge starts building. Although that means we will have a chance at more rain than first thought, though it is great news for areas that haven't received much rainfall in the province.

T-storms will clear out by late eve.

 

 

T-storms will start at Noon

The next likely shot at seeing rainshowers or thunderstorms will come Saturday in the Afternoon and in the Evening as another area of low pressure moves Southeast through the regions of Southern Manitoba. Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms will fire up along this system as it moves through the RRV during the late afternoon early evening hours. There won't be a threat for significant severe weather tomorrow afternoon, as the parameters look to be fairly low. However there may be a few storms in the afternoon that could become severe, if it happens the severe weather will be very short lived.

As for our Temperatures they will remain being in the high twenties for daytime high's along with temperatures in the 15 to 20C mark for overnight lows. The real heat will start by the beginning of the week as the ridge starts building, temperatures will rise into the mid to high 30's by the end of next week and into next weekend giving us a great shot of summerlike weather.

Bring On The Heat!

This whole week will feature warm and hot weather in all of Southern Manitoba, a trend that will continue for the next 2 weeks.

An Animation of forecast Temperatures at 850MB from 00Z Today Through until Thursday 5 July at 00Z

 Starting off our big story, it looks like we will see a wonderful night in Southern Manitoba tonight with temperatures near 20C for overnight lows. A high pressure system will be in place throughout the Day tomorrow, pumping warm air up from the Gulf of Mexico allowing our temperatures to get into the high 20's and possibly mid 30's. Tomorrow the humidity will increase substantially, as our temperatures climb to 30 degrees making it feel more like the 40's. The heat will last until on Wednesday when we see a cold front push through the province. Although on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday the temperatures will be a little cooler but above 20C. Another ridge is expected to build on Saturday as we see a return to warmer than normal weather with temperatures above 30C and some humidity.

 A look at CAPE values during the Tuesday Overnight period

As for Thunderstorm Activity, the regions that certainly will see severe weather include the southern part of Saskatchewan throughout the night tonight and tomorrow afternoon. There still may be that threat in southern Manitoba on Wednesday, although it is less clear. The best chance for seeing thunderstorms in the Red River Valley will be Tuesday Night through until Wednesday Morning as storms that form over Saskatchewan Drift into the southern part of the province during the overnight hours. Though, these storms will happen after dark they may still be severe as they will have a 40 knot LLJ to work with. As for other portions of the province including SW Manitoba there may be a risk for thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon especially near the Saskatchewan border, as some storms may enter from Saskatchewan.

Overall look for a potentially stormy hot week this week and next week, if you like the stormy hot weather,

Convective Probability Forecast For Today's Thunderstorms

 Head Over to HRRR NOAA for more graphics

Another Stormy Day On The Way Tomorrow; Warmer Weather on the Way

Possible showers and storms tomorrow will be welcomed with upper level ridging that will allow for our temperatures to start rising into the 20's and even low 30's later this week into the weekend and next week.

Showers And Storms Likely Tomorrow from Noon Through the Evening hours, in the Interlakes, Winnipeg and most of the Red River Valley.

The rest of the showers and storms will taper off this evening as they move into Ontario along with the main area of low pressure, leaving behind it conditions ranging from partly cloudy to clear across the Southern half of the province. Although temperatures won't be too bad, likely near the  low double digit ranges in all regions of the province it will provide for a very comfortable evening if you are heading out. Tomorrow will be a similar story but not as cloudy. The sun will be out throughout the morning and early afternoon hours allowing our temperatures in Southern Manitoba to rise into the high teens and low twenties, before another small front brushes past the province in the afternoon and evening. As this front slides by expect the formation of showers and storms in the Red River Valley and Eastern Manitoba as the daytime heating is combined with an area of lift along the front. Storms will generally be non severe in nature, although a few could reach severe limits for hail up to toonies and heavy rainfall.

Ridging will build into this weekend

Tomorrow will also mark a shift in our weather pattern, as a ridge starts to build into the province getting our temperatures into a warming trend. That ridge will continue to build into the weekend letting Sunshine take hold over the province and aid in getting a boost of our temperatures and humidity levels. It is definitely going to give us some time to dry out, especially for those in SW Manitoba who have received well over 240mm of rain in the past few weeks.

Today's Tip: A look at the legend of the NWS Weather Map (top picture) 

Another Weekend of Unsettled Weather

(Some Information Provided by Brad From A Weather Moment)

Today will be another beautiful day for the start of the Red River Exhibition as temperatures near the mid 20C range anywhere in the southern part of the province, with very little cloud cover to contend with. Although things are about to turn active for the weekend with the arrival of more low pressure systems that will move over our region.

An area of rain/storms will form in SE Sask, Western North Dakota tonight at 6pm and it will drift eastwards throughout the night.

An area of low pressure is expected to trek eastwards across the prairies and northern plains today, as a result things will become more favourable for the development of thunderstorms tonight. As the system tracks into SW Manitoba and Western North Dakota tonight, storms should have very little issue popping up. With decent instability, the storms should quickly grow into an area of rain with embedded thunderstorms and likely trek East-Northeast. The area of rain will get to the SW by late evening, Red River Valley late overnight and get through to eastern Manitoba by the morning and afternoon. With little LLJ influence in place it will likely keep the thunderstorm threat to a minimum with the rain that pushes through. Although the odd rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out. Some Models are forecasting up to near 10 and 15mm of rain over the next 3 to 6 hours. This system looks a lot similar to last weekends storm system, so it may end up prompting more stormchasers to head out if severe weather develops. As the area of low pressure tracks through the rest of Manitoba tomorrow, we will see the chance for showers and thunderstorms through much of the Red River Valley in the afternoon. Chances will be higher North of Morris, that would include Winnipeg and areas North.
 

Another Round Of Storms, Possibly Some Severe On Sunday

The threat of severe weather returns to Southern Manitoba on Sunday as another powerful low pressure system moves into the area. Dewpoints will rapidly climb up into the high teens/low twenties on Sunday, especially in regions of SW Manitoba as a powerful southerly flow develops out ahead of the incoming storm system. CAPE values will likely climb past 2000 J/Kg with decent shear. Tornado potential exists and looks to be near the Western Red River Valley, including Pilot Mound,Crystal City, Manitou, Pembina Valley Provincial Park, Morden, Winkler, Altona, Emerson and Morris. All areas South and West of Winnipeg. The closer to the USA border you live, the greater the risk for tornado producing Supercells. As the storm system travels eastwards into the Red River Valley by evening things should blow up fairly good, with widespread thunderstorms growing quickly into an MCS. Damaging Winds and large hail will most certainly be a threat for areas in the RRV. Sunday's forecast is sensitive to the systems speed. If it ends up being slower everything will be further West, If faster everything will be further East.

Details on the coming storm systems will be available on Twitter and in my Blog Commentary

A Return to Some Stormier Weather

(Information Provided by Brad from A Weather Moment)

Parts of Southern Manitoba will be under an increasing risk for thunderstorms as the week progresses. Heat and some humidity will slowly build into the region, as a trough begins to build over the Rocky Mountains before it tracks eastwards across the Prairie region later this week.

 We will warmer temperatures today as warmer air pushes in behind a warm front that passed through the region overnight. Daytime temperatures should be near the 25C mark through most areas of the RRV. By this afternoon a weak frontal system will be along the international border with a trough extending to the NW towards a low pressure system tracking into Western Manitoba. Showers and possible thunderstorms will develop over SW Manitoba this afternoon and slowly track eastwards into the RRV. According to Brad ``It will mainly be regions through the northern Red River Valley that face the risk for showers or thunderstorms (Portage la Prairie, Winnipeg, Selkirk; as seen in the image above)` The showers and thunderstorms will lift north into the interlake overnight while temperatures drop to the low to mid teens in most of the South.

For Thursday a north to south band of showers with the embedded thunderstorm will likely form over the Red River Valley or the Whiteshell in the afternoon. This line will likely move eastwards and intensify into a band of thunderstorms. The potential exists for 50mm in rainfall accumulations, I will keep a close eye on this as things develop.

Friday looks like it will be a nice day with comfortable humidity and daytime temperatures near 20C. Brad notes that A large MCS is forecast to develop on Friday night in North Dakota, bringing the chance for a stormy and rainy Saturday. 

Significant Tornado Threat In Southern Manitoba Saturday

A slow moving area of low pressure pushing into our region this weekend will set the stage for the potential of supercell thunderstorms capable of producing dangerous flooding, extremely large hail, damaging winds and possible tornadoes.

 A look at the slow moving low pressure system that is set to roll into Southern Manitoba on saturday with the Severe Thunderstorm coverage risk map.

The main surface low starts to move into our area on Saturday, bringing a warm front up from the Northern plains of North Dakota into Southern Manitoba. 
So what will the atmosphere have available for the Storm's Tomorrow? Looking at Data Provided by Brad from A Weather Moment 

• Moisture: Plentiful. Surface dewpoints will be sitting near 20°C across Southern Manitoba, with 850mb dewpoints pushing up towards 15-17°C. This deep layer of moisture will provide plenty of energy for storms to work with.
• Instability: The major inhibition to storms will be a layer of warm air at 700mb. Temperatures will climb to 10-13°C at 700mb on Saturday morning, however cooler air will push in later in the afternoon, helping destabilize the mid-levels. LI values of -8 to -11, combined with CAPE values anywhere from 2500 J/kg to 5500 J/kg are evidence of an extremely unstable atmosphere.
• Shear: With a decent upper-level jet pushing in through the day, most areas across southwest and south-central Manitoba will see bulk shear values increase to 30-40kt by evening.
• Trigger: A warm front draped across Southern Manitoba will be strong enough to initiate convection in the mid-to-late afternoon as the cap begins to erode.

Overall models are having a hard time deciding on the speed of this system, but they agree that it has the potential to produce dangerous supercell thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes. The greatest difficulty is predicting where they will form, current indications are that the greatest threat for tornadoes will likely occur in a the region from North of grand Forks towards and north of the Canadian Border. This would likely include the Red river Valley and into Winnipeg and North. Although if this turns out to be different SW Manitoba might be under the gun, for tornadoes. So overall here is the Risk Map for Saturday:

The Latest Storm Prediction Centre Severe Weather Outlook, areas hatched in red indicates the best chance for severe thunderstorms.

                                                                                                                                         According to Brad "large MCS will likely develop as the whole system lifts northwards overnight, which will continue to provide a severe weather threat in the form of strong winds and large hail. It will push through the RRV by Sunday morning. We may see the threat for another round of thunderstorms on Sunday afternoon, however they are not expected to be severe. Things will finally cool off on Monday as the main upper low moves through and draws in cooler, dryer air from the west.

Thunderstorms Set To Roll In Tonight To The Red River Valley (Graphics only)