Wednesday, July 11, 2012

Hot Weather to Continue with More Storms

Southern Manitoba may see the warmest day of the year today as temperatures climb into the mid 30's under the presence of an upper ridge and a somewhat southerly wind. The ridge that is bringing this hot and sunny weather will weaken as several low pressure systems will track through the prairies, bringing us a couple of days of some unsettled weather across the southernmost region of the province.
A look at the 850 MB Temperatures for Wednesday at 6pm
 A nice southwest wind, combined with warmer temperatures under the ridge (22 to 24C at 850MB) today will help Southern Manitoba's temperatures to soar from inbetween 30 and 37C, Winnipeg will get to a Scorching 35C if all regions stick to sunny conditions. Today will definitely be the warmest day of the week, with temperatures returning to around 30C for Thursday and Friday. Overnight lows will be mild with the temperatures only cooling to the high teens or low twenties.
A look at just one of the many systems that will affect us over the next few days, this one will affect us throughout tonight and into tomorrow morning. NMRS CB 40,00 Mean severe storms are likely in large numbers.

A number of low pressure systems are also set to track over the southern portions of the province starting this afternoon/evening, which will bring us the risk of thunderstorms late this afternoon,evening, overnight and throughout the day tomorrow. While forecast storm indicies will be signinficant given the heat  and humidity, a lack of shear will make sure that any storms that form will be the slow moving pulse type storms. They likely will strengthen to severe levels, although they will be range from being hit and miss to widespread. The main threat from any of the storms will be large hail, damaging winds, intense lightning, and heavy rains given there speed and intensity. Tornadoes won't be likely due to the lack of windshear, though if one storms can get strong enough it could end up producing a tornado given the high instability. 

Things will clear up for Friday, with a few hit and miss storms in the South east. Another Storm System will make an appearance on the weekend when we will likely see another possible round of storms.

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