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| A chance for thunderstorms exits as another trough moves through Southern Manitoba throughout the evening hours. This will be one of the many areas of low pressure systems that will pass through our area. |
Another Powerful Low Pressure System is set to make an entrance into The Province on Thursday Night as it pushes showers and thunderstorms out ahead of it into SouthWestern Manitoba that will last through until the morning when things clear out. The Low will sit over Southern Manitoba on the day Friday likely giving an enhanced severe weather threat given the instabilty that will be in place. Severe Storms with Large hail and damaging winds cannot be ruled out. There will be a chance for heavy rain/thunderstorms on Friday Night as the backside of the system wraps around. Saturday will be fairly cool at around 20C, as cool air filters in behind the system. Although the rest of the weekend will be a lot nicer with temperatures rebounding back up to 30 degrees.
Have A great Second Half of your Week!
Hello Everyone, the rest of the day today is looking fine and dandy with some off and on cloudcover in some regions and warm temperatures in and around the mid 20's. Although cooler if you get under any thick consistent cloudcover. It will definitely not be a repeat of yesterday evenings thunderstorms due to the lack of instability present today along with no upper level feature to spark off storms. As a result the evening will feature sunny to partly cloudy skies with temperatures remaining right around 15C overnight while cooler weather may persist in the parklands region.
ReplyDeleteThunderstorms may enter Southern Manitoba tonight especially in Southwest regions ahead of another feature and would likely move East overnight before weakening in the #RRV. This feature will be the weathermaker for tomorrow.
Tomorrow is looking a little bit tricky in terms of the forecast. We have a very potent low pressure system that will move through the province tomorrow and current indications are that we could see the return of more severe weather conditions with the arrival of this system. I am not sure of the dynamics that will be in place tomorrow I can tell you that 1)if we see to much cloudcover the storms would have little energy to work with and they would not reach severe limits 2) If the sun were to be out all day along with dewpoints in the high teens and temperatures near 28C all day there would be a guarantee for severe weather. Severe weather is definitely possible especially this time of the year and it is always unpredictable to forecast. Here is what Environment Canada believes will happen tomorrow "ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD AND
PERHAPS CURVES EASTWARD, SHOULD SEE THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA
SHIFT EASTWARD INTO MANITOBA WITH A BETTER - ALBEIT STILL SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AS THE UPPER LOW TAPS
INTO A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIRMASS." So there you have the risk for severe weather will be in southern Manitoba tomorrow likely being in the #RRV and Eastern Manitoba like the usual.
I will try and find more information as the evening goes on, and will have a post provided tomorrow afternoon sometime. Thank's for stopping by!
Interesting the NWS has some sort of thunderstorm complex or thunderstorm line forecast for southern Manitoba tomorrow around 7pm 00z. Click my name for the website.
ReplyDeleteFor those of you following any Weather Models, earlier one of them the (GEM) was suggesting a split flow pattern over southern Manitoba in the coming days. that would mean that we would be spared by the precipitation and it would bypass the southern portion of the province and move into North Dakota. However the latest runs indicate that we will not be in this pattern whatsoever over the next 24 hours. That would now put us at threat for precipitation and thunderstorms.
ReplyDeleteI really don't like when the models flip flop it creates confusion and problems for forecasters when they create the forecasts.
As a result I would stick with this conclusion from the latest model run as it is reflecting the pattern that we have been in and continue to be in for the upper air pattern.