Cooler than average spring weather ahead

Southern Manitoba can expect a pretty pleasant rest of the week with fairly sunny skies and below seasonal temperatures. 

Southern Manitoba I will be seeing well below normal daytime high temperatures highs only in the 40s and overnight lows in the 20s which translates to the high single digits for daytime highs and overnight lows a couple degrees below zero. 

Southern Manitoba tonight will be exceptionally cooler than normal as a area of High Pressure and arctic air sits in northern Manitoba.  As a result winds will be light out of the North tonight.  With clear skies expect temperatures to drop below zero for most there may be a few areas that stay above zero but for the most expect temperatures to drop into minus single digits I’m expecting the temperature range between somewhere between -7 and -2 Celsius.  My forecast low temperatures.  Wednesday Night Brandon -2C Winnipeg -2C. 

There will be a risk for frost overnight tonight into the morning so if you have plants it’s best to cover them to prevent them from being affected by the possible freeze. 

Early Thursday should start fairly cold temperatures will only be slightly or a couple of degrees above zero with winds out of the north for most of the day temperatures will not budge much but will not be as cold as the northern portion of the province which will be in the mid single digits to some mid minus double digits  in extreme northern portions of the province. Temperature will warm throughout the day for you in the north expect highs in the minus single digits for the day time meanwhile in the southern portion of province with winds out of the north highs will be anywhere between 5C and 12C. Hi temperature for the day on Thursday in Brandon should be about 10, For Winnipeg a high temperature will be about nine Celsius.

Thursday the winds will shift to the due North as a result cooler than average overnight lows can be expected especially as you go towards the Manitoba lakes with overnight lows they’re dropping to the -5 range further south you go towards Winnipeg and Brandon warmer temperatures will be the case. Overnight low for Winnipeg -2 and for Brandon an overnight low of -3 can be expected. There will still be a risk of frost Overnight into Friday morning.

For the day Friday should be fairly pleasant day it’ll be one of the more cooler days before the weekend arrives which I will talk about shortly.  If you’re in extreme south western portions, of the province into the parklands a couple areas may have a few more clouds and the rest of the province just high level clouds.  Still under the presence of high-pressure that is situated to the north temperatures will not be able to budge much with the north wind. Expect a high temperature on Friday to be similar to that of Thursday. The most part southern Manitoba will see temperatures between five and eight Celsius. High temperature of 8C is expected for Brandon and high temperature of only 6C is expected for Winnipeg.

Friday night expect clouds to increase as a area of low pressure moves into the region and mostly impacts North Dakota with some showers expected there. Overnight lows will drop into the Zero to -5C range. A low of -2 can be expected in Brandon. And -4 can be expected in Winnipeg. 

The weekend will be one of the colder parts of our weather pattern coming up behind an area of low pressure that will be moving south into the Dakotas. A area of cooler than normal temperatures with freeze conditions at night can be expected into the weekend to start our week. General for the weekend expect your day time highs to be between 5 and 9 Celsius for Saturday and for Sunday between 4 and  7 Celsius. With colder temps for the overnight, lows will likely drop into the minus 2 to minus 8C range for most. 


-Michael McGregor

Nice Weather Expected to Continue, Becoming Unsettled For The Weekend

After a rainy weekend and a glorious start to the week, it is looking like the sunny and warm trend will continue for several days ahead as a ridge of high pressure starts building into the Eastern Prairies Including Manitoba. As a result we can expect to see temperatures in the mid to high 20's during the time period. Although we will see a very slight chance for some showers and thunderstorms today as an area of small low pressure slides through the area. Another area of low pressure is forecast to move in For Friday and Saturday bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms once again.

An area of High Pressure is expected to gradually build over Manitoba in the coming days, it is not shown on the map though it is find in the big circle in Northern Manitoba.

There is a chance for a shower or thunderstorm over Southern Manitoba this afternoon as a trough moves southwards as it heads into North Western Ontario, the best chances will remain to the East through the Whiteshell regions and in SW Manitoba. Everything should organize and drift south and eastwards out of the province by evening hours.

Next on the headlines, it is looking like a fairly strong ridge of high pressure will continue to build into Northern Manitoba, and it is looking like it will strengthen to almost be at 1030 mb by tomorrow morning. The axis will be from The Red River Valley Northeast into Hudson Bay and James Bay. The system will ensure sunny and clear skies over the period of the next few days, limiting clouds only to fair weather cumulus and as well allow for a southerly flow to take place over the southern portion of the province. This would usually result in hot temperatures and high humidity but in this case it will provide less humidity and more normal temperatures. Instead of this high pressure system being created by a ridge, this is one that will be created by a trough of  cold air descending from the Arctic. The southerly flow that will develop over southern Manitoba will be a return flow of air out of the high pressure system  instead of being a warm moist flow from the Gulf of Mexic. Leaving our temperatures slow to climb as each day progresses and dewpoints only rising into the low to mid teens.

Friday Saturday will be another stormy few days as another low moves into the province,scattered thunderstorms and showers will both be possible on these days with accumulations nearing 5mm in showers and higher amounts of course in thunderstorms. Severe weather will be possible on Friday in Southern Manitoba as highlighted by The Prairie Arctic Storm Prediction Centre based in Winnipeg.

Next Week looks like it will continue to be nice with Temperatures in the high twenties along with lots of sunshine.

I could not have found out some of these detail's if it weren't for Brad from

A Weather Moment

Our Hot Week Set to End with a Bang!

(Information Provided by Brad from A Weather Moment)

Temperatures are ready to soar for the rest of the week as a heat source from the Gulf of Mexico builds into the southern portion of the province. Everyone across all of Southern Manitoba should begin to prepare for a potentially dangerous end of week powerful low pressure system that will threaten the first significant severe weather outbreak of the season.


850mb theta-e (a form of measuring temperature) chart valid for 06Z Thursday 07 June. 

The above picture with the red arrows very well depicts the advection of a warm Gulf of Mexico airmass into our region, (theta-e is basically a form of measuring temperature). A southerly flow aloft, aided by a long wave trough over British Columbia to our west and a blocking high to our East will bring us the hottest days we have experienced this year, throughout the rest of this week. Temperatures are expected to reach the 25C to 30C range through the second half of this week.       

Postion of fronts and weather at 00Z Friday

 A weak low pressure system will move through Southern Manitoba throughout Thursday night, ahead of the main upper level feature. Even though dynamics don't look to great for severe weather, a line of thunderstorms will likely develop during the late afternoon and evening hours they will intensify aqnd slowly move east-northeastwards. While tornadoes will not be likely with the storms on Thursday afternoon/evening, CAPE values near 1250 to 1750 J/kg combined with Lifted Indicies near -5 and 20 to 30 Shear should be enough for large hail according to Brad. The possible slow moving nature of the line of storms could produce a risk for heavy rainfall with as much as 30+mm falling over a short period of time. While showers will be common over the southwest portion of the province on Thursday, the chance for showers does extend eastwards through the Red River Valley in the afternoon. Most of the precipitation will fall with the thunderstorms that will develop in the evening.

Although this is still 36 hours away and things could change a lot between now and then. According to Brad "models still are having a hard degrading the blocking pattern that is in place right now ,and some are much more progressive with features and some are much slower."  If things end up more progressive than the look now, there may be a small storm threat for Thursday night.

Thunderstorm Outlook for Night 2 (00Z to 18Z June 08).

Brad says " That taking into account the various speeds, the current area that might see storms on Thursday afternoon/evening looks to be the area bounded from the US border north to Brandon, up towards Dauphin/Swan River, then eastwards across the Interlake and southwards down the eastern Red River Valley. Storms will exit through the Central/Northern Whiteshell. Friday will yet again be another warm day;debris cloud left behind from Thursday Night's convection should clear around lunch time which will hopefully allow the sunshine to warm us to the mid to high 20's. Dewpoints look to build in the afternoon pushing up to the 18C or 19C degrees making it feel quite humid. The main frontal system is set to move in on the weekend, and what a system it looks to be.


SPC Day 4-8 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

According to Brad "We’ll be under the influence of two strong shortwaves that will push copious amounts of instability over Southern Manitoba. CAPE values look to exceed 2500 J/kg and potentially be as high as 5000-5500 J/kg; this, combined with a weak cap north of the warm front and favorable shear profiles looks to point at a potent setup for severe thunderstorms with high probabilities of (extremely) large hail, strong winds, and elevated risks of tornadoes." From My perspective it looks like this setup will be similar to June 22nd and 23rd 2007 tornado event that featured Canada's first F5 Tornado in Elie and that also resulted in 6 other dangerous tornadoes in Southwestern Manitoba.

More Details will be available throughout the next couple days on Twitter and some on my blog post on this potentially serious Storm Outbreak.

Hot and Wonderful Start to June....

After a beautiful weekend mixed in with Stormy Conditions, we will end up sticking with the hot weather to start the week. An omega block will start to gradually build in this week, allowing us to keep experiencing the warm weather we have had over the past week.

Omega block building in for midweek

Day 6 and 7 outlook from the SPC

 Tuesday will be the nicest and hottest day of the week with high temperatures cracking the 30C mark, along with sunny conditions, low humidity and a comfortable breeze. Temperatures will be pretty much the same for Wednesday with highs again near 30C, as we grab a little bit of a south-easterly flow. Thursday looks to remain very warm, and continue into the first half of the weekend with an increased chance for storm activity as another low pressure system approaches from the plains. The SPC has even highlighted a day 6 and 7 outlook for our area, mentioning a 30%+ chance of seeing any severe storm within a 25 mile radius. I will keep you up to date as this progresses, and a post will be available on Friday on this storm system.

A Look Back At The Month of May, And A Chance For Us To Dry Out A Little Bit......

(Info Provided in part by Brad from A Weather Moment,
and other details by Mike the Author of this blog)


After Seeing deluges of rain over the past 10 days Southern Manitoba is finally forecast to see some sunny dry weather conditions. A high pressure system will move through our area allowing for sunny skies over the next couple of days, with daytime highs pushing back to the seasonal normal. That is about 21C for Brandon, 22C for Portage La Prairie and Winnipeg.

 Overall Precipitation Average through the month of May

Focusing on Winnipeg, we are absolutely soaked, according to Brad from AWM "So far this month, many areas of the city have seen over 100mm (3.94”) of rain, with some areas of the west end seeing closer to 125mm (4.92”)." This is definitely a huge amount of rainfall for a single in Winnipeg; the Manitoba Agricultural department released a report showing that Winnipeg has had 46% more rainfall than normal over the last 30 days. Brandon has also had close to 50% more rainfall than normal in a 30 day period, although a little less up in Dauphin and areas along the International Border where drier conditions persist. This wetter than normal month has broken a 9-month stretch of drier than normal conditions for parts of Winnipeg and the city has already shattered last years total summer precipitation. If summer is considered the months of June, July and August, our 100-125mm of precipitation in Winnipeg this month smashes the 93mm we received throughout the Summer of 2011. As well through the summer last year only 7 days the airport reported thunderstorms in the area. So far in May alone we have reported 5 thunderstorms, put that on top of the other 5 we experienced in March and April altogether we have seen 10+ thunderstorms. Looks like we are leaving 2011 in the dust in terms of our storm activity. Overall we are off to a wet start to the summer that has definitely been more promising on our storm front than last year.

Time for our Weather outlook.....

Positioning of the high pressure system at Noon Today

Over the next couple days, we will see the sun and the return of warmer temperatures. An area of high pressure will continue moving our region tonight before it enters NW Ontario Tomorrow allowing for a southwest flow to take place, bringing some warmer weather for the day. We will see a small chance for some showers and possible thunderstorms on Friday Afternoon as a trough pushes through the Red River Valley, bringing our temperatures up into the mid to high twenties for the weekend.