Cooler than average spring weather ahead

Southern Manitoba can expect a pretty pleasant rest of the week with fairly sunny skies and below seasonal temperatures. 

Southern Manitoba I will be seeing well below normal daytime high temperatures highs only in the 40s and overnight lows in the 20s which translates to the high single digits for daytime highs and overnight lows a couple degrees below zero. 

Southern Manitoba tonight will be exceptionally cooler than normal as a area of High Pressure and arctic air sits in northern Manitoba.  As a result winds will be light out of the North tonight.  With clear skies expect temperatures to drop below zero for most there may be a few areas that stay above zero but for the most expect temperatures to drop into minus single digits I’m expecting the temperature range between somewhere between -7 and -2 Celsius.  My forecast low temperatures.  Wednesday Night Brandon -2C Winnipeg -2C. 

There will be a risk for frost overnight tonight into the morning so if you have plants it’s best to cover them to prevent them from being affected by the possible freeze. 

Early Thursday should start fairly cold temperatures will only be slightly or a couple of degrees above zero with winds out of the north for most of the day temperatures will not budge much but will not be as cold as the northern portion of the province which will be in the mid single digits to some mid minus double digits  in extreme northern portions of the province. Temperature will warm throughout the day for you in the north expect highs in the minus single digits for the day time meanwhile in the southern portion of province with winds out of the north highs will be anywhere between 5C and 12C. Hi temperature for the day on Thursday in Brandon should be about 10, For Winnipeg a high temperature will be about nine Celsius.

Thursday the winds will shift to the due North as a result cooler than average overnight lows can be expected especially as you go towards the Manitoba lakes with overnight lows they’re dropping to the -5 range further south you go towards Winnipeg and Brandon warmer temperatures will be the case. Overnight low for Winnipeg -2 and for Brandon an overnight low of -3 can be expected. There will still be a risk of frost Overnight into Friday morning.

For the day Friday should be fairly pleasant day it’ll be one of the more cooler days before the weekend arrives which I will talk about shortly.  If you’re in extreme south western portions, of the province into the parklands a couple areas may have a few more clouds and the rest of the province just high level clouds.  Still under the presence of high-pressure that is situated to the north temperatures will not be able to budge much with the north wind. Expect a high temperature on Friday to be similar to that of Thursday. The most part southern Manitoba will see temperatures between five and eight Celsius. High temperature of 8C is expected for Brandon and high temperature of only 6C is expected for Winnipeg.

Friday night expect clouds to increase as a area of low pressure moves into the region and mostly impacts North Dakota with some showers expected there. Overnight lows will drop into the Zero to -5C range. A low of -2 can be expected in Brandon. And -4 can be expected in Winnipeg. 

The weekend will be one of the colder parts of our weather pattern coming up behind an area of low pressure that will be moving south into the Dakotas. A area of cooler than normal temperatures with freeze conditions at night can be expected into the weekend to start our week. General for the weekend expect your day time highs to be between 5 and 9 Celsius for Saturday and for Sunday between 4 and  7 Celsius. With colder temps for the overnight, lows will likely drop into the minus 2 to minus 8C range for most. 


-Michael McGregor

Below Normal Temperatures Return

(850 MB Temps Forecast at 18Z Today)

(NWS GF Wx Graphic for Today)

Hello and we are back in operation, after a full week of waiting. So how is our weather holding up? After enjoying the past few days with temperatures a couple of degrees above the normal, a low pressure system backing into Hudson bay will push a cold front southwards across Southern Manitoba throughout the day today. It will bring along with it cooler weather. The cold front will sweep by southern manitoba early this afternoon, with winds forecast to pick up from the North and increase towards 30 and 40 km/h. Scattered showers will develop along and ahead of the front as it pushes south through the red river valley, from the interlake. So most areas in the red river valley will have a chance of seeing some rain early this afternoon. They won't last long though, and as well cooler air will stream on the backside limiting our temps to only get to the low teens for today across the south. Skies will clear quickly tonight as an Arctic high pressure ridge builds in. This cooler weather will continue until the weekend when we see this ridge move off and slowly allow for our temperatures to rebound, although the day on Saturday still may be cool. I will let you know when we can expect a warm up in terms of temperatures.

Also in Weather News I am watching the potential for development of El Nino by the end of the month in the pacific. This would mean a potential for a hotter/more humid and wetter summer in parts of Southern Manitoba. (As Depicted to the left from NOAA). I will keep everyone updated on this as it unfolds

More Showers and Possible Thunderstorms on the way for the next couple of days

Storm Picture from Monday Night
From TWN

Southern Manitoba has experienced a variety of Weather over the past couple of days including the gusty winds, thunderstorms, hail, rain, drizzle, snow and blowing snow. A potent storm system that brought heavy snowfall to western Manitoba and the inter lake regions, as well including thunderstorms and rain that hit Winnipeg, the Red River Valley and parts of Southern Manitoba has moved well east into Quebec. We are not out of the way yet, as another system is expected to march through Southern Manitoba tomorrow afternoon. (See My blog Article: Thunderstorms rumble through Southern Manitoba) 

For Today we will see a mix of sun and clouds with highs right in and around 5C across parts of southern Manitoba, just warm enough to melt away the snow we accumulated yesterday. However an area of low pressure made landfall off the coast of Oregon last night. This area of low pressure will travel to the east and lift northwards into the Central part Of Manitoba,bringing with it a cold front that will bisect the Prairies and slowly push eastward. This cold front is expected to push through the Winnipeg and the Red River Valley through the day on Thursday. We will see rain push through our area by mid morning and leave the area by early evening. Rainfall amounts currently look like they will be in the 10 to 15 mm range across Southern Manitoba, although it does look like their is a fairly good chance for some embedded thunderstorms that will be spread out within the rain showers. Don't be surprised if you get a little heavier rain in local thunderstorms.  Expect them to be mainly non severe in nature. We can expect a reprieve on Friday with sunny weather and a return to temperatures of around 10C, with the help of warmer air from the south. This weather will be short lived as another system is set to roll in for Saturday.

 

 This weather system is forecast to bring an area of showers/rain to the northern inter lake regions, anywhere from in between Swan Lake, and Berens river. Current Indicators tell me there will be a small chance for showers in southern Manitoba with the chance for the odd storm. Temperatures during Saturday will be mainly above normal near in and around 10C.

As for the weather over the next couple of weeks the cold arctic air will continue to be locked up in areas North of (60*) by not only the strong AO, but also by the strong polar Jet Stream. This means we have a chance once again for our temperatures to soar above normal as predicted by Environment Canada. This will be mainly a moderate chance as we have not experienced any significant warm ups since the beginning of March. The long wave pattern has also changed, (according to AWM Blog) it has shifted over to favour more disturbances tracking across the prairies. This should result in slightly warmer than normal weather, but certainly more rainfall that we have seen in march.

Warmer Weather Headed our way!

Expect today to be the coldest day of the week after an area of low pressure made it's way through our area, bringing with it snow over some parts and behind it cool arctic air that will sink south throughout the day. Warm Weather will return by Saturday, as the cold air will stay locked up in the arctic with a strong positive AO, and a strong west to east zonal flow. If we get any cool blasts they will be very short lived.

Upper Level Pattern over
the next few days

All models are suggesting that this trend will likely continue, with temperatures remaining above zero across southern Manitoba for the next few weeks. Hopefully the warm weather will melt some of the snow we have received over the past several weeks. Although how warm we will get really depends on how much snowcover we have, areas around winnipeg will likely see the warmer air earlier as their is a less dense snowcover, and the black sod from farmers feilds should really help keep the heat, and melt the snow. Those who like warm weather it's just around the Corner!

For more details and info on the forecasted warm weather try these links: Environment Canada Weather for Manitoba, Accuweather Manitoba Forecasts, Weathernetwork Manitoba Forecasts, Wunderground Manitoba Weather, CBC Manitoba John Sauder and Unisys Weather 850 MB Temperature Loop

I'll have my spring outlook for Manitoba this weekend, Stay Tuned!

                                         (Top Right: Brett Anderson's ECMWF Model; Middle: AO Index; Bottom: Accuweather Pattern Forecast)

                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                

Back to Cold Weather!

(Left: GEM-GLB surface analysis forecast 96hr Friday Feb 10th,2012)

After a nice few days with warm temperatures across the prairies, expect a change to cooler than normal weather conditions for the beginning of this week.

A cold front is expected to swing south over the province tonight and early tomorrow morning, bringing with it a chance for some light and local blowing snow across the south part of the province. With the passage of the cold front by Monday afternoon skies will clear and winds will shift towards the north, it could become quite strong (60km/h at times), that will aid in cooling our temperatures throughout the day.Temperatures will moderate on Tuesday and Wednesday, before we see temperatures that will be colder with high windchill values for the end of this week and into the weekend with nice conditions. The arrival of a high pressure system will promote the cold temperatures, as it sits sit over the prairies for a few days. This will allow for our temperatures to fall well below normal. Expect it to clear out by the beginning of next week, giving us a chance to finally get back to our normal pacific weather that we have been experiencing all winter. Till then you will have to brave the cold!

Stay up to date on how cold the weather will get here.......

http://weather.unisys.com/gfsx/gfsx.php?inv=0&plot=850&region=us&t=l