More Showers and Possible Thunderstorms on the way for the next couple of days

Storm Picture from Monday Night
From TWN

Southern Manitoba has experienced a variety of Weather over the past couple of days including the gusty winds, thunderstorms, hail, rain, drizzle, snow and blowing snow. A potent storm system that brought heavy snowfall to western Manitoba and the inter lake regions, as well including thunderstorms and rain that hit Winnipeg, the Red River Valley and parts of Southern Manitoba has moved well east into Quebec. We are not out of the way yet, as another system is expected to march through Southern Manitoba tomorrow afternoon. (See My blog Article: Thunderstorms rumble through Southern Manitoba) 

For Today we will see a mix of sun and clouds with highs right in and around 5C across parts of southern Manitoba, just warm enough to melt away the snow we accumulated yesterday. However an area of low pressure made landfall off the coast of Oregon last night. This area of low pressure will travel to the east and lift northwards into the Central part Of Manitoba,bringing with it a cold front that will bisect the Prairies and slowly push eastward. This cold front is expected to push through the Winnipeg and the Red River Valley through the day on Thursday. We will see rain push through our area by mid morning and leave the area by early evening. Rainfall amounts currently look like they will be in the 10 to 15 mm range across Southern Manitoba, although it does look like their is a fairly good chance for some embedded thunderstorms that will be spread out within the rain showers. Don't be surprised if you get a little heavier rain in local thunderstorms.  Expect them to be mainly non severe in nature. We can expect a reprieve on Friday with sunny weather and a return to temperatures of around 10C, with the help of warmer air from the south. This weather will be short lived as another system is set to roll in for Saturday.

 

 This weather system is forecast to bring an area of showers/rain to the northern inter lake regions, anywhere from in between Swan Lake, and Berens river. Current Indicators tell me there will be a small chance for showers in southern Manitoba with the chance for the odd storm. Temperatures during Saturday will be mainly above normal near in and around 10C.

As for the weather over the next couple of weeks the cold arctic air will continue to be locked up in areas North of (60*) by not only the strong AO, but also by the strong polar Jet Stream. This means we have a chance once again for our temperatures to soar above normal as predicted by Environment Canada. This will be mainly a moderate chance as we have not experienced any significant warm ups since the beginning of March. The long wave pattern has also changed, (according to AWM Blog) it has shifted over to favour more disturbances tracking across the prairies. This should result in slightly warmer than normal weather, but certainly more rainfall that we have seen in march.

Manitoba Spring Outlook 2012

It has definitely been a long dreary winter for us in Manitoba with the continuous days of seeing temperatures in the minuses, snowfall and of course the cold blasts of wind from the windchill. Although spring is around the corner and not far off, only 10 days away. So with the return to budding of the trees, greening of the grass and warmer weather. What can we expect for the spring of 2012 here in Manitoba? Well taking into account the lack of snow cover over Manitoba this winter, the steady weakening of La Nina, Long Range Forecast Models, and the current/forecasted conditions of the Arctic Oscillation. We can expect to see a very welcoming Spring For Manitoba!

Overall we can expect above normal temperatures across most of the Province including here in Southern Manitoba, and Winnipeg. Areas in the northernmost regions will experience more normal temperatures for their region. On Average Temperatures will be in and around the 20C range in the south, and in the North around the mid teens.The Warm air will be a result of the Positive Arctic Oscillation, and a very strong northerly tracked jet stream that will keep all of the Arctic air locked up in Alaska and in British Columbia (as shown on the temperature map above). If you are wondering about any cold weather, that won't be a big issue. If we experience any below normal temperatures they will be very short lived and very minimal. If all goes well this trend will continue into the summer months with a possible emergence of El Nino as projected by various models, meaning a continuation of this warm weather and a return to possible wetter than normal weather conditions.

Those wondering about our precipitation we can expect to see normal precipitation amounts across most of the province including big towns like Winnipeg,Dauphin,Brandon and Winkler. The frequency and amounts will increase as you go northward especially in northernmost communities in Manitoba. This expected pattern is a result of an active storm track that will position itself over the northern prairies, resulting in lower amounts over central and southern Manitoba. On average expect 300mm in total for the southern part of the province, and 500 mm for the northern part of the province. That might mean we could have a lesser chance for flooding, but an increased risk for a drought down the road her in southern Manitoba!

Let's hope our spring turns out as forecasted!
Check out the spring weather forecasted by theweathernetwork, and Accuweather.

Warmer Weather Headed our way!

Expect today to be the coldest day of the week after an area of low pressure made it's way through our area, bringing with it snow over some parts and behind it cool arctic air that will sink south throughout the day. Warm Weather will return by Saturday, as the cold air will stay locked up in the arctic with a strong positive AO, and a strong west to east zonal flow. If we get any cool blasts they will be very short lived.

Upper Level Pattern over
the next few days

All models are suggesting that this trend will likely continue, with temperatures remaining above zero across southern Manitoba for the next few weeks. Hopefully the warm weather will melt some of the snow we have received over the past several weeks. Although how warm we will get really depends on how much snowcover we have, areas around winnipeg will likely see the warmer air earlier as their is a less dense snowcover, and the black sod from farmers feilds should really help keep the heat, and melt the snow. Those who like warm weather it's just around the Corner!

For more details and info on the forecasted warm weather try these links: Environment Canada Weather for Manitoba, Accuweather Manitoba Forecasts, Weathernetwork Manitoba Forecasts, Wunderground Manitoba Weather, CBC Manitoba John Sauder and Unisys Weather 850 MB Temperature Loop

I'll have my spring outlook for Manitoba this weekend, Stay Tuned!

                                         (Top Right: Brett Anderson's ECMWF Model; Middle: AO Index; Bottom: Accuweather Pattern Forecast)

                                                                                                         

                                                                                                                                                                 

                                                                                                                

Update on the AO and Sea Surface Temperatures

While I was browsing through my sites I found this AO Index from and I decided create a writeup on it here it is: After half a month of below seasonal temperatures brought on by the Negative AO, we are now seeing it return to the positive side about (+1) AO.(See AO index to the left). This will allow all of the cold air to be locked up in the arctic rather than be pushed down south into our region. All in part due to a strong arctic jet stream and higher air pressure that will help keep all of the cold air locked up in the arctic. This means that the overall trend for our part of the province will be above seasonal weather and an increased chance for precipitation. In other areas across North America the pattern will be different wetter weather can be expected in Alaska, Scotland and Scandinavia. While the states could undergo drier conditions and a reprieve from the recent storm systems that have gone through the West. As for the rest of Canada cold conditions can be expected in Newfoundland with higher than normal snowfall amounts.While Quebec,Ontario,Saskatchewan,Alberta,Manitoba, and British Columbia can expect above normal temperatures and normal precipitation amounts.

(Left: The Difference between positive and negative AO)







As for the Sea Surface Temperatures we are remaining on the La Nina side of things (see sea surface index to the left) and are pinpointing over the next few weeks and into the spring months we could see a return to Neutral conditions. This will effect our weather pattern by having times of cold and warm periods going with a mix of moist and dry conditions. An example would be 2008 that I can remember when our overall weather pattern was a mix of dry and wet weather. Although the La Nina we are having now will be affected dramatically by the positive AO. Check out this page for details on forecasts and conditions on sea surface temperatures:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml