Manitoba Spring Outlook 2012

It has definitely been a long dreary winter for us in Manitoba with the continuous days of seeing temperatures in the minuses, snowfall and of course the cold blasts of wind from the windchill. Although spring is around the corner and not far off, only 10 days away. So with the return to budding of the trees, greening of the grass and warmer weather. What can we expect for the spring of 2012 here in Manitoba? Well taking into account the lack of snow cover over Manitoba this winter, the steady weakening of La Nina, Long Range Forecast Models, and the current/forecasted conditions of the Arctic Oscillation. We can expect to see a very welcoming Spring For Manitoba!

Overall we can expect above normal temperatures across most of the Province including here in Southern Manitoba, and Winnipeg. Areas in the northernmost regions will experience more normal temperatures for their region. On Average Temperatures will be in and around the 20C range in the south, and in the North around the mid teens.The Warm air will be a result of the Positive Arctic Oscillation, and a very strong northerly tracked jet stream that will keep all of the Arctic air locked up in Alaska and in British Columbia (as shown on the temperature map above). If you are wondering about any cold weather, that won't be a big issue. If we experience any below normal temperatures they will be very short lived and very minimal. If all goes well this trend will continue into the summer months with a possible emergence of El Nino as projected by various models, meaning a continuation of this warm weather and a return to possible wetter than normal weather conditions.

Those wondering about our precipitation we can expect to see normal precipitation amounts across most of the province including big towns like Winnipeg,Dauphin,Brandon and Winkler. The frequency and amounts will increase as you go northward especially in northernmost communities in Manitoba. This expected pattern is a result of an active storm track that will position itself over the northern prairies, resulting in lower amounts over central and southern Manitoba. On average expect 300mm in total for the southern part of the province, and 500 mm for the northern part of the province. That might mean we could have a lesser chance for flooding, but an increased risk for a drought down the road her in southern Manitoba!

Let's hope our spring turns out as forecasted!
Check out the spring weather forecasted by theweathernetwork, and Accuweather.

Update on the AO and Sea Surface Temperatures

While I was browsing through my sites I found this AO Index from and I decided create a writeup on it here it is: After half a month of below seasonal temperatures brought on by the Negative AO, we are now seeing it return to the positive side about (+1) AO.(See AO index to the left). This will allow all of the cold air to be locked up in the arctic rather than be pushed down south into our region. All in part due to a strong arctic jet stream and higher air pressure that will help keep all of the cold air locked up in the arctic. This means that the overall trend for our part of the province will be above seasonal weather and an increased chance for precipitation. In other areas across North America the pattern will be different wetter weather can be expected in Alaska, Scotland and Scandinavia. While the states could undergo drier conditions and a reprieve from the recent storm systems that have gone through the West. As for the rest of Canada cold conditions can be expected in Newfoundland with higher than normal snowfall amounts.While Quebec,Ontario,Saskatchewan,Alberta,Manitoba, and British Columbia can expect above normal temperatures and normal precipitation amounts.

(Left: The Difference between positive and negative AO)







As for the Sea Surface Temperatures we are remaining on the La Nina side of things (see sea surface index to the left) and are pinpointing over the next few weeks and into the spring months we could see a return to Neutral conditions. This will effect our weather pattern by having times of cold and warm periods going with a mix of moist and dry conditions. An example would be 2008 that I can remember when our overall weather pattern was a mix of dry and wet weather. Although the La Nina we are having now will be affected dramatically by the positive AO. Check out this page for details on forecasts and conditions on sea surface temperatures:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml