While I was browsing through my sites I found this AO Index from and I decided create a writeup on it here it is: After half a month of below seasonal temperatures brought on by the Negative AO, we are now seeing it return to the positive side about (+1) AO.(See AO index to the left). This will allow all of the cold air to be locked up in the arctic rather than be pushed down south into our region. All in part due to a strong arctic jet stream and higher air pressure that will help keep all of the cold air locked up in the arctic. This means that the overall trend for our part of the province will be above seasonal weather and an increased chance for precipitation. In other areas across North America the pattern will be different wetter weather can be expected in Alaska, Scotland and Scandinavia. While the states could undergo drier conditions and a reprieve from the recent storm systems that have gone through the West. As for the rest of Canada cold conditions can be expected in Newfoundland with higher than normal snowfall amounts.While Quebec,Ontario,Saskatchewan,Alberta,Manitoba, and British Columbia can expect above normal temperatures and normal precipitation amounts.
(Left: The Difference between positive and negative AO)
As for the Sea Surface Temperatures we are remaining on the La Nina side of things (see sea surface index to the left) and are pinpointing over the next few weeks and into the spring months we could see a return to Neutral conditions. This will effect our weather pattern by having times of cold and warm periods going with a mix of moist and dry conditions. An example would be 2008 that I can remember when our overall weather pattern was a mix of dry and wet weather. Although the La Nina we are having now will be affected dramatically by the positive AO. Check out this page for details on forecasts and conditions on sea surface temperatures:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml
How do you expect the +AO to affect our climate in the spring and especially summer? I know it's waaaay too far out to be predicting summer weather yet and I'll take anything you say with a massive chunk of salt, so you needn't worry about misleading me really. :P
ReplyDeleteI remember 2008 being quite quiet when it came to thunderstorm activity.
Anon.....
ReplyDeleteConsidering this is the first time and the fact I am replying to someone and the fact I'm an amateur.It may be hard to answer your question but I'll give it a try.
Anyways the +AO during the spring and summer months can result in us having hot weather and dry conditions, pretty much like what we have been expereiencing all winter. Dont let that fool you, because we can still experience days of cooler weather with more precipitation if the AO switches over to negative.
During a postive phase the westerlies are usually stronger in spring, and the summer months I'm assuming the southerlies are stronger. Basically The AO is the difference in air pressure between here and the arctic. Did I answer your question?
Snowfall is totalling up in winnipeg pretty close to 5cm at the moment. Areas east of Winnipeg have picked up higher amounts Steinbach 15cm,East perimeter highwaty 10 cm and in the whiteshell 10 to 15cm. Tight snow boundary. It is still snowing in these areas, hard to beleive after such a dry winter.
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