Cool Stormy Weather on The Way For the Weekend

Manitoban's get ready for a wakeup call, the next few days are going to be ridiculously cold with daytime highs over 10°C below the normal and overnight lows over 5°C below the normal. The sun will make only a couple appearances over the next few days as another forecasted storm system pushes into Southern Manitoba, bringing another round of rain and a few possible strong thunderstorms to the Red River Valley, especially near the border.

The 850 MB Temps forecasted by the GFSX Model for tonight at 00Z ( 7pm), as temps will cool with the passage of a trough.

This downright cool weather has brought late-season snow to several communities in Western Manitoba including The Pas, Flin Flon and higher elevations over SW Manitoba. Areas that received snow in higher elevations were Swan River, Duck Mountain, Porcupine Provincial Forest and Riding Mountain. (Even Rob wrote out an article on the snowfall event, read up on his perspective here) Just be glad we never experienced any snow in our region.

Tonight, there is a high threat potential for frost in most of Southern Manitoba, as we see the arrival of another surface ridge and clearing skies. Areas most at risk for frost tonight appears to be in all of the southwestern portion of the province into the park lands, east into the RRV especially areas north of the transcanada highway. The threat also extends east through Winnipeg towards the Ontario border. Areas not included in the risk for frost are along the American Border. There currently is a frost warning in place for almost the whole southern section of the province view the map here.

 Tomorrow will be a transitioning day with temperatures reaching the 12 to 17C range in all of the south, with cloud streaming northwards from the Dakota's with the next system. Rain will push up towards the American Border by morning, likely staying south of the border all day tomorrow. The rain will stay south of the border until the big northward push comes on Sunday.

Showers and Storms will be likely throughout the day on Sunday in Southern Manitoba, as the system pushes North. As shown by the NWS Weather Maps.

Potential for more showers on Monday

And quite the push it will be! Rain and Isolated Thunderstorms will be going on throughout Saturday night south of the border, although the storms will likely weaken by sunrise and the rain will slowly push northwards across the Red River Valley. Most regions across Southern Manitoba should expect the showers to start fairly early on Sunday and last throughout the day, with the possibility for the formation of non-severe storms especially in the RRV during the late afternoon,evening. The rain and possible storms will taper off west to east overnight and will clear out. With another potential for showers Monday as this significant weekend system brings wraparound showers, while it leaves our province. Overall rainfall amounts in Southern Manitoba can be expected to be in between 5 and 10mm in showers,(at least 30+mm) amounts in storms. And inbetween 20 and 30 mm in western manitoba where you will be closer to the heavier rain.This really isn't the best of news for this year's teddy bear picnic, but hopefully it won't dampen their fun and spirits. 

This likely will be the last cold blast of the season, before we start experiencing some warmer May like weather, and some hot June temperatures. That is a long ways away from now, so let's have a look at the improving weather after this rainfall....  Conditions do look like they will improve through the middle of next week, with temperatures pushing back towards the 20C degree mark and some sunny conditions making an appearance. In the mean time put on some PJ's or slippers and kick back and relax as this weekend will be a stay at home weekend. Except for the storm chasers out there who may want to storm chase on Sunday here or in North Dakota if conditions follow through.

Milder Week ahead with Possible Thunderstorms

After a period of cool, uneventful weather things are about to get a little more interesting this week, for people who are living in South Central Manitoba. We will see temperatures close to 20C or warmer in many regions. It won't be all sunshine and games, as we will have to get used to a more active a more active storm track. This will bring multiple storm systems through our area.

We will see a beauty of a day today with daytime temperatures right near 20c, and some sunshine with cloud cover developing in the afternoon from some instabilty lingering from yesterday's system. An area of low pressure tracking it's way into Saskatchewan through the day will be lifting warm air northwards to Southern Manitoba. By this evening, a strong warm front will exist running west to East through Southern Manitoba, with a cold front draped to the south from SW MB to Wyoming. A 30 to 40 knt low level jet will help trigger thunderstorms near the triple point in ND, where additional lift will aid the jet as it rides with the warm front. The first of the storms will likely fire in ND and will begin to lift into Southern Manitoba travelling NE with the upper flow, with more forming as they do so. Once more mature, the storms will begin to tap into the convergence present aloft in a trough extending eastwards from the low heading into Saskatchwan and continue their way across Southern Manitoba. By morning, a line of storms present over most of southern Manitoba will form into a line of rain and showers extending from SE SK to the Mountains.

Thunderstorm outlook for Monday night from A weather Moment Blog

The storms are not expected to be severe, however any regions that may see multiple thunderstorms training over the area could see in excess of 20mm of rain and cool temperatures aloft raise the possiblity of marginally severe hail (which, in Canada, is about the size of a nickel). Current indications are that the greatest risk for hail would be over the south-central RRV and back into the western RRV, from the US Border to near Carmen. Other than that slight risk, no severe weather is expected from the night’s storms. Thing's will continue to lift North on Tuesday, we may see some afternoon showers through the RRV as a second system tracks through the dakota's. Temperatures will be warm though with daytime highs near 20C despite cloudy skies. Wednesday and Thursdy look nice, with more sunny skies. Although another powerful system is forecast to track into our region on Friday bringing with it another possible round of showers and thunderstorms. Updates will be handy for this next system on Twitter.

3rd Spring Storm System of the year set to roll in tomorrow

The seasons third storm system will start moving through southern Manitoba tonight through until Saturday afternoon. Bringing with it some seasonal temperatures, breezy conditions and the possibility of rain as well as thunderstorms. Not before we see one more day of nice weather in Southern Manitoba.

Conditions will continue to be pleasant across southern Manitoba, except for the odd couple of showers or storms in the SW, temperatures will be near 20C. There will also be a strong SE wind blowing near 40 km/h, it is a great ending to the beautiful weather we have experienced today.

Tonight an area of low pressure from Montana will enter SW MB and gradually lift to the NE as the night progresses, reaching the red river valley tomorrow afternoon. This will bring an area of rain and possible thunderstorms to southern manitoba tonight and most of tomorrow. Rainfall amounts will fall inbetween 5-10mm or locally higher in thunderstorms. This system will pull out saturday and allow for a NW flow to develop bringing cooler conditions, and possible below average temperatures.

 I will post more details in the comments section...

More Showers and Possible Thunderstorms on the way for the next couple of days

Storm Picture from Monday Night
From TWN

Southern Manitoba has experienced a variety of Weather over the past couple of days including the gusty winds, thunderstorms, hail, rain, drizzle, snow and blowing snow. A potent storm system that brought heavy snowfall to western Manitoba and the inter lake regions, as well including thunderstorms and rain that hit Winnipeg, the Red River Valley and parts of Southern Manitoba has moved well east into Quebec. We are not out of the way yet, as another system is expected to march through Southern Manitoba tomorrow afternoon. (See My blog Article: Thunderstorms rumble through Southern Manitoba) 

For Today we will see a mix of sun and clouds with highs right in and around 5C across parts of southern Manitoba, just warm enough to melt away the snow we accumulated yesterday. However an area of low pressure made landfall off the coast of Oregon last night. This area of low pressure will travel to the east and lift northwards into the Central part Of Manitoba,bringing with it a cold front that will bisect the Prairies and slowly push eastward. This cold front is expected to push through the Winnipeg and the Red River Valley through the day on Thursday. We will see rain push through our area by mid morning and leave the area by early evening. Rainfall amounts currently look like they will be in the 10 to 15 mm range across Southern Manitoba, although it does look like their is a fairly good chance for some embedded thunderstorms that will be spread out within the rain showers. Don't be surprised if you get a little heavier rain in local thunderstorms.  Expect them to be mainly non severe in nature. We can expect a reprieve on Friday with sunny weather and a return to temperatures of around 10C, with the help of warmer air from the south. This weather will be short lived as another system is set to roll in for Saturday.

 

 This weather system is forecast to bring an area of showers/rain to the northern inter lake regions, anywhere from in between Swan Lake, and Berens river. Current Indicators tell me there will be a small chance for showers in southern Manitoba with the chance for the odd storm. Temperatures during Saturday will be mainly above normal near in and around 10C.

As for the weather over the next couple of weeks the cold arctic air will continue to be locked up in areas North of (60*) by not only the strong AO, but also by the strong polar Jet Stream. This means we have a chance once again for our temperatures to soar above normal as predicted by Environment Canada. This will be mainly a moderate chance as we have not experienced any significant warm ups since the beginning of March. The long wave pattern has also changed, (according to AWM Blog) it has shifted over to favour more disturbances tracking across the prairies. This should result in slightly warmer than normal weather, but certainly more rainfall that we have seen in march.

Second Round of March Thunderstorms Rumble Through Winnipeg and some parts Of Manitoba

Radar Image from EC at 0000 UTC

As predicted Winnipeg and Southern Manitoba saw the years second round of March Thunderstorms, and it did not disappoint. The evening started off fairly quiet in Manitoba ,with some gusty southeast winds and the odd rain shower. The quiet subsided and the first of the storms appeared on radar west of Dauphin where a cluster of storms formed at 18:00 CDT along highway 5. The storms that formed along highway 5 continued to travel to the northeast hitting areas like Winnipegosis and the northern lakes region. Hail, heavy downpours and intense lightning were reported at the storms greatest intensity where CB Cloud Tops reached an estimated 37,000 feet. Not long after a small storm cell formed and went over the city of Brandon and the RM of Cornwallis. Not much fell from that storm other than light rains and strong Lightning, it was enough to prompt EC to report a thunderstorm over Brandon.

At the same time there was a cluster of storms forming Near the Black Hills in NW South Dakota, at the ND/SD and CO border. This was the main focus for areas in Southern Manitoba later in the night, as they would be carried North along with the Low Pressure System and the fast flowing LLJ. At approx 12am the storms transitioned into a multi cellular line of storms as they crossed the border into North Dakota generating reports of  quarter size hail, gusty winds in excess of 50 mph, intense lightning, and very loud thunder. As a result the NWS issued severe thunderstorm Watches for the Western Half of North Dakota as they travelled northward. Unfortunately the same line of storms split up as they were about to cross the Manitoba border, leaving the more intense activity on more of the western edge of the line. Areas anywhere in between Melita and Winkler were affected. This left the less intense activity on the eastern edge where only showers were falling.

This whole story reversed as the storms crossed the border, in this case the storms on the western edge in areas like Killarney transferred all of the convective energy to the east allowing for more potent storms to form just south of Winnipeg. In this case the storms that formed started travelling to the N and developed rain with lots of lightning ,allowing for us in Winnipeg to see our second thunderstorm event of the year. There were a few reports of dime size hail in St.Vital for 5 to 10 min during the storms. For those who were in and around the storms it sure did bring a really good quality lightshow, one that we won't forget soon. Although all of that lightning did come at a cost, a lightning bolt was reported to have struck a transformer in the River Park South area resulting in 100 people being left without power. The power was restored a short while later, that is a great example of how powerful one flash of lightning can really be whether it be close or faraway.

Overall it was a night some won't soon forget. Yet more storms are possible throughout the coming months, and this may signal the beginning of a very active storm season.

(Right: Youtube- Storm In Winnipeg)

Manitoba Spring Outlook 2012

It has definitely been a long dreary winter for us in Manitoba with the continuous days of seeing temperatures in the minuses, snowfall and of course the cold blasts of wind from the windchill. Although spring is around the corner and not far off, only 10 days away. So with the return to budding of the trees, greening of the grass and warmer weather. What can we expect for the spring of 2012 here in Manitoba? Well taking into account the lack of snow cover over Manitoba this winter, the steady weakening of La Nina, Long Range Forecast Models, and the current/forecasted conditions of the Arctic Oscillation. We can expect to see a very welcoming Spring For Manitoba!

Overall we can expect above normal temperatures across most of the Province including here in Southern Manitoba, and Winnipeg. Areas in the northernmost regions will experience more normal temperatures for their region. On Average Temperatures will be in and around the 20C range in the south, and in the North around the mid teens.The Warm air will be a result of the Positive Arctic Oscillation, and a very strong northerly tracked jet stream that will keep all of the Arctic air locked up in Alaska and in British Columbia (as shown on the temperature map above). If you are wondering about any cold weather, that won't be a big issue. If we experience any below normal temperatures they will be very short lived and very minimal. If all goes well this trend will continue into the summer months with a possible emergence of El Nino as projected by various models, meaning a continuation of this warm weather and a return to possible wetter than normal weather conditions.

Those wondering about our precipitation we can expect to see normal precipitation amounts across most of the province including big towns like Winnipeg,Dauphin,Brandon and Winkler. The frequency and amounts will increase as you go northward especially in northernmost communities in Manitoba. This expected pattern is a result of an active storm track that will position itself over the northern prairies, resulting in lower amounts over central and southern Manitoba. On average expect 300mm in total for the southern part of the province, and 500 mm for the northern part of the province. That might mean we could have a lesser chance for flooding, but an increased risk for a drought down the road her in southern Manitoba!

Let's hope our spring turns out as forecasted!
Check out the spring weather forecasted by theweathernetwork, and Accuweather.