Milder Week ahead with Possible Thunderstorms

After a period of cool, uneventful weather things are about to get a little more interesting this week, for people who are living in South Central Manitoba. We will see temperatures close to 20C or warmer in many regions. It won't be all sunshine and games, as we will have to get used to a more active a more active storm track. This will bring multiple storm systems through our area.

We will see a beauty of a day today with daytime temperatures right near 20c, and some sunshine with cloud cover developing in the afternoon from some instabilty lingering from yesterday's system. An area of low pressure tracking it's way into Saskatchewan through the day will be lifting warm air northwards to Southern Manitoba. By this evening, a strong warm front will exist running west to East through Southern Manitoba, with a cold front draped to the south from SW MB to Wyoming. A 30 to 40 knt low level jet will help trigger thunderstorms near the triple point in ND, where additional lift will aid the jet as it rides with the warm front. The first of the storms will likely fire in ND and will begin to lift into Southern Manitoba travelling NE with the upper flow, with more forming as they do so. Once more mature, the storms will begin to tap into the convergence present aloft in a trough extending eastwards from the low heading into Saskatchwan and continue their way across Southern Manitoba. By morning, a line of storms present over most of southern Manitoba will form into a line of rain and showers extending from SE SK to the Mountains.

Thunderstorm outlook for Monday night from A weather Moment Blog

The storms are not expected to be severe, however any regions that may see multiple thunderstorms training over the area could see in excess of 20mm of rain and cool temperatures aloft raise the possiblity of marginally severe hail (which, in Canada, is about the size of a nickel). Current indications are that the greatest risk for hail would be over the south-central RRV and back into the western RRV, from the US Border to near Carmen. Other than that slight risk, no severe weather is expected from the night’s storms. Thing's will continue to lift North on Tuesday, we may see some afternoon showers through the RRV as a second system tracks through the dakota's. Temperatures will be warm though with daytime highs near 20C despite cloudy skies. Wednesday and Thursdy look nice, with more sunny skies. Although another powerful system is forecast to track into our region on Friday bringing with it another possible round of showers and thunderstorms. Updates will be handy for this next system on Twitter.