Friday, April 6, 2012

Springtime Storm System to bring some Cooler Weather to the Province this weekend

An area of low pressure tracking through Western and Central areas of the province will bring wet weather, cooler temperatures and windy conditions to most of southern Manitoba. Although we have one more day of nice weather to spare. Get out there and enjoy it!
 Current Temperatures as of 3pm CDT

Conditions will be fairly typical across the southern Part of the Province for the rest of the day today with forecast conditions ranging from sunny skies to possible thunderstorms. Temperatures will continue to remain in the 20C range, before they cool throughout the evening to end up with overnight lows in the single digits. The winds will also be strong out of the south at 40km/h gusting to 60 km/h at times. It is another amazing end to a beautiful week with regards to the above normal temperatures.
NOAA HPC Weather Map for Tonight at 06Z

Tonight an area of low pressure will move out of Southeast Saskatchewan and will move through the parklands of Manitoba into the interlake. Featured with this low is a very powerful 40kt LLJ, Some Moderate Levels of Moisture and Moderate levels of CAPE, combine them together it will allow for some potential for showers and even areas of elevated convection to occur overnight in some southern sections. This is what we call nocturnal thunderstorms as they occur during the overnight. The main focus for storms tonight will be in Western North Dakota, as some may form in that region and lift northward into Parts of Southern Manitoba as the low travels to the NE. The cold front will go through the southern part of the province Saturday morning, bringing a chance of showers and the odd rumble of thunder or two; indications are that there will be a greater chance for rainfall in central/eastern southern Manitoba then in SW MB. After the passage of the cold front expect mainly sunny conditions with a chance for off and on showers, along with for some strong westerly winds.
Total accumulated precipitation via 48hrs

The wrap-around precipitation will begin to move into the Red River valley on Saturday night, with colder air diving to the south on the backside of the low. Current indications are that most of the precipitation will fall as snow and that the northern regions of the RRV has a higher chance of seeing flurries than the southern half. The low will continue to lift to the NE through the day on Sunday, pulling the wrap- around circulation northwards with it and out of the northern Red River valley. Most areas in the red river valley will likely see a tiny bit of snow on Sunday (about a trace), however the only areas that might accumulate a cm or two would be north of Winnipeg.

Overall we definitely are being spared with this system as the larger amounts of precipitation are forecast to fall from the Moose Jaw/Regina,Saskatchewan region along a line NE to Swan River and the Pas. The GEM-GLB is currently showing up to 75mm of precipitation, which if that were to fall as snow it would likely end up to 2 feet of snow.
Anyone who is planning to travel Saskatchewan today or on the weekend should adjust accordingly to weather conditions, and make alternate routes when necessary.

After that things will clear out for the start of the week and our temperatures will slowly rebound into the low teens by midweek, and the trend will likely continue into mid April.


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