Dangerous and Life threatening Severe Weather Outbreak possible on Saturday for the Great Plains

People who are living in the Midwest, tomorrow could be a very dangerous scenario. The Storm Prediction Centre has issued a high risk severe weather threat for most of Oklahoma, Kansas as well as parts of Nebraska and Iowa. The cities that are included within the high risk region include cities such as Oklahoma City, Wichita, Lincoln, Norfolk and Tulsa. Dr Jeff Masters quotes "Warm, moist air flowing northwards from a Gulf of Mexico that has record-warm waters will collide with cold air funneling down from Canada, creating a highly unstable air mass capable of creating strong thunderstorm updrafts. An impressive upper-level low, accompanied by a jet stream with 105 - 125 mph winds at middle levels of the atmosphere, will create plenty of wind shear, giving the air the spin it needs to form tornadoes."  This is the second time this year the SPC has issued a high risk outlook. Any tornadoes that form could be violent, long lived and long tracked. This could possibly mean F4' and F5' tornadoes for people living in the high risk region. Please stay tuned to your weatheradioes and pay close attention to the weather in your region.

Update Saturday April 14th,2012

All of the parameters still appear to be in place for a significant tornado outbreak throughout this afternoon and evening in the plains. According to Zoom Radar Blog "A 100 KT+ jet streak is anticipated to overlap an unstable air mass, where dew points should be well into the 60s and CAPE values will range from 2000-3500 J/Kg. The entrance of that jet streak will bring along 0-6 effective bulk shear values in the 70 KT range, which is more than sufficient (to say the least) to produce rotating super cells". The only thing that has changed is the risk map produced from the Storm Prediction Centre, as they have modified the high risk outlook to cover a more widespread area stretching from parts of northern Nebraska south towards the Oklahoma City area, which is not good for some.

What is more scary the tornado probabilities the SPC put out for today and tonight. They have placed a 45% zone over top of the state of Nebraska and Kansas (of there being a tornado within 25 miles of a point). I believe the last time the SPC issued a 45% region was last year during the super outbreak in Alabama. Before that event, their wasn't really any times that the SPC had forecasted a high risk. According to Zoom Radar blog this is how thing's should develop "The convection should initiate in Nebraska late this morning or early this afternoon around the low, where the forcing is the greatest. Initiation could be earlier than was anticipated yesterday. Models suggested showers would be moving through Nebraska this morning along the warm front; however, that’s not the case. What this means is the surface should destabilize quicker than expected, and storms will fire sooner as a result.

A current look at some of the storms at 2pm CDT

Later in the afternoon, as the upper-level energy ejects out of the Rockies, numerous supercells should develop in Nebraska. As for Kansas and Oklahoma, widespread storm coverage may not develop along the dry line until the 6-7 PM range. However, the environment along the KS/OK is as good as any today. So if/when storms develop around there, expect for them to become tornadic rapidly. Storm coverage will expand across the dry line well into the evening, meaning night time tornadoes are a big concern. Eventually (around midnight or so), the cold front should catch up with the dry line, and a large squall line should develop. There will still be a tornado threat with this squall line overnight, as well as the threat for very strong winds and some severe hail." So far things are getting active so make sure you stay tuned to the weather in the states, use common sense and have a family action plan. I will be providing info on Twitter throughout the afternoon.

Head to A Weather Moment blog for details on the Tornado Outbreak Aftermath