A Mixed Weather Story For The Long Weekend

Some nice weather is on the way for the long weekend with some sunshine and warm temperatures for Saturday. The chance for showers and thunderstorms will come on Saturday night and on Sunday as a low pressure system moves through the interlake and Southern Manitoba.

A low will move through Saskatchewan tomorrow afternoon reaching Manitoba Sunday.

It will continue to be a beautiful evening out there for all folks in the South, with temperatures expected to dip into the mid to high teens and some clear skies. Tomorrow maybe a few degrees cooler than it was today as we see more cloudcover work it's way into the province out ahead of another system that will be moving in from Saskatchewan. We could also see some stronger winds ahead close to 30 km/h.

A possibly strong low level jet (LLJ) is forecast to develop on Saturday evening. According to A Weather Moment  "Current consensus is that a 40kt LLJ will develop over central North Dakota and slowly push eastwards overnight. An area of showers and thundershowers look to develop on the nose of the LLJ, mainly through areas between the International Border northwards towards Riding Mountain Provincial Park eastwards across the Interlake." The problem with this forecast currently appears to be associated with Isaac, as it will be pushing northwards towards Iowa before moving eastwards on Sunday. The moisture that is required for us to see thunderstorms on Saturday Night sits along a boundary left behind across the Northern States. The LLJ that forms tomorrow evening should be able to tap into the pool of moisture and transport it northwards into Southern Manitoba. However if the location of the moisture changes or moves which is Isaac then the LLJ would have little left to tap into and we would be left with no more than scattered showers. Along with little amounts.

A cold front will move through during the day on Sunday sparking up more showers and storms, possibly severe before they clear out during Sunday Night. Highs will be in the high 20's. Holiday Monday looks spectacular with highs in the mid to high 20's and a nice breeze from the Southwest.

The Summer Heat Returns!

We will be welcoming back the heat of summer In Southern Manitoba for the coming 2 weeks, after a period cool and wet weather that has been in place.

The NAM indicates we could have some 30C+ Temperatures in some places during the day Tuesday. Tip: add 13C to the temperature you see on the map using the temperature legend.

As predicted, a ridge of high pressure will build over the province this week allowing for the warmest weather conditions to develop that we have seen this August in the province. So how are our temperatures shaping up province wide? Well for the Rest of the day today we can expect to temperatures rise into the mid twenties, although cooler as you head north. Lots of sunshine will be in place allowing for UV Levels to approach the 7 to 8 mark (which is the high values). The real heat comes on Tuesday when most places could record their first 30 degree reading of the month, as we see warm air ride in from the Pacific. In addition to the hot weather there could be some places that surpass 30, especially along the American border.

Unfortunately, the ridge will begin breaking down on both Wednesday and Thursday as a series of Shortwaves move in from the Pacific Coast. These shortwaves will have one or more low pressure systems associated with them, they will create some unsettled weather over the Southern Part of the province during the second half of the week. Current information from Spotwx indicates that an Easterly to Southeasterly flow will likely develop over most regions of Southern Manitoba out ahead of our first approaching low pressure system of the month. We may or may not reach 30C on Wednesday depending on air flow and position of fronts. It is still a possibility that we could see temperatures in the high 20's, though I am not certain if it will get warmer.

Thursday looks interesting for stormchasers as there appears to be a risk for thunderstorms in Southern Manitoba as a strong southerly flow brings more humid air up from the Gulf Of Mexico, out ahead of a low pressure system. This will be the first risk for thunderstorms we have seen in a while. Might also mean a threat for more severe weather if we have the right ingredients come together. Hopefully Capping isn't an issue, cause capping always prevents storm development.

As the weekend approaches NOAA Weather Models indicate an arrival of a series of low pressure systems through our portion of the province.  If the systems continue developing it will mean a warm and wet last weekend of August.

Get out there and enjoy the nice Weather! Head to the beach or go for a nice walk....