Slightly Milder and Slightly Below Temperatures Return, Possible Colorado Low

 As you know already much of the region has experienced well below average temperatures off and on since the beginning of February, this relentless cold snap has finally removed its grip on southern Manitoba as pacific air has started to influence parts of the prairies and the polar vortex moved on east, therefore moderating our temperatures. The weather pattern could also become more active over the coming days as low pressure systems ride along the westerly to northwest jetstream. This outlook will cover Tonight-Thursday. 

(Above: Tuesday looks to be the warmest day of the week, temperatures will sit in the mid to high minus single digits. Colder weather for the rest of the week. Data is from WeatherBell Analytics Pro). 

Tonight: A low pressure system will sit off to the west , ahead of it cloudy to partly cloudy skies are likely tonight with a chance of flurries exists for the southwestern half of Manitoba, with light snow likely in the extreme southwestern portions. Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid to high minus teens (-12 to -18C) windchills however might be even colder with values in the mid minus teens to the low -20’s. The coldest of the values will probably be felt by the areas around Lake Winnipeg and into the northern red river valley. 

Tuesday: Will be met with some of the nicest weather yet this week, sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected during the afternoon with the exception being the latter half of the day when thicker clouds build in. Temperatures will soar into the mid to high minus single digits mainly with values between (-4C and -7C), it may feel a lot colder with the wind factored in so windchills will sit in the high minus single digits for areas along and south of the Trans Canada highway, areas along and north of the trans Canada will be likely seeing WC’s in the low minus teens (-10 to -12C). Tuesday Night: A large area and swath of snow will move through on Tuesday night although light in nature, about 2-4cm can be expected in some places a general 5cm can be expected if heavier bands fall. Temperatures on Wednesday night will sit in the low to mid minus teens (-10 to -15C), and windchills in the upper minus teens along and south of the trans Canada highways (-15 to -19C) Windchills will sit in the low to mid minus twenties for the parklands and the interlakes (-20 to -26C). 

Wednesday and Thursday: Both Days will be dominated by warm weather conditions or closer to seasonal, on Wednesday cloudy skies are likely during the day with high temperatures in the low minus teens (-10 to -14C) and windchill values in the high minus teens and the low minus 20’s (-16C to -22C). Wednesday Night cold arctic air will filter in again as clearing skies allow for a temperature drop. Temperatures will swing down into the mid to high minus 20’s (-24C to -28C) with most of the windchills dropping past minus 30C hovering in the low to mid minus 30’s (-30 to -36C). 

Thursday will be a slightly warmer day our highs will sit in the high minus single digits to the low minus teens (-7C to -12C), the windchill values will sit in the mid to high minus teens (-12C to -18C). The warmer areas will likely be in spots of the parklands during the daytime. Thursday Night an approaching low pressure system will likely bring in a batch of colder air as the system sits to our south and this system will form by Colorado, which is going to be something to watch. Clear to partly cloudy skies will result for the night, temperatures will sit in the mid to high minus teens in areas of the interlakes and the eastern half of Manitoba (-15C to -18C) areas elsewhere will see lows in the low to mid minus 20’s (-20 to -25C). Windchills unfortunately won’t care and will sit in the low to high minus 20’s and the low minus 30’s (-20C to -31C) especially in the SW. 

Second half of the week details come on Thursday or Friday with more info on the Colorado low that could impact us. Signs are that it will miss us to the south but we will have to watch future model trends for any updates. Too early to say when or what impacts we will get . 

Extreme Cold continues this week

 Taking a break from the traditional blog updates with extremely detailed data, Unfortunately because of the lack of data across northern Manitoba I will only forecast for the southern half of the province until we can figure out a way to get better information. Let’s have a quick glance on what will be a very cold week across the region. 

(Above: Extreme Cold will encompass the region , here’s Wednesday Night with windchills dropping towards -45C). Arctic high pressure will sit near our area over Alberta and Saskatchewan and will not budge until later this week, meanwhile a potent Colorado low will travel into the northeastern United States with widespread impacts across northern Ontario.  Much of the region will see sunny skies and little in the way of cloudcover throughout the week, including the overnight hours. Temperatures will sit in the high minus teens and the low minus 20’s on Tuesday with overnight lows in the high minus twenties and low minus 30’s. The rest of the week high temperatures will sit in the high minus teens and overnight lows in the high minus twenties or low minus 30’s. Windchill values will even be colder, through the rest of the week with it feeling like the high minus twenties and low minus 30’s during the day and overnight windchills every night dropping down to the high minus 30’s and low minus 40’s to mid minus 40’s. Moderation in temperatures are expected by the night on Friday with temperatures and windchills reducing significantly by late Friday early Saturday with highs in the high minus single digits and windchills in the low minus teens. 

Stay warm !! -Mike McGregor 

Blizzard conditions Thursday Night into Friday, cold weather sticks around.

 Well I can confidently say we are again in for another streak of active weather , I really feel for all of you who are getting tired of this winter season it seems like we keep getting one Alberta clipper after the other.  The weather this next few days will be in part due to a consistent NW flow blizzard conditions are likely to impact the region with snow and blowing snow. You can thank all of this due to another stubborn Alberta clipper, yes I said it . Anyways on to our forecast now. 

(Above: Photo of the low pressure system that is forecast to go through southern sections of Manitoba and provide significant weather on Thursday night into Friday. The purple on the map beside the L indicates the strongest winds). 

Comedy Moment about the Alberta Clippers: Are we in a flashpoint reality or some endless time loop, from something out of DC comics The Flash Manitoba edition ??? It sure feels like it , we need Captain cold and killer frost to stop this endless cold and the flash to kick this winters kahoots, back to December and to do something to fix this. Don’t worry he will, we won’t have to worry about -200C temperatures anytime soon unless your on mars. Anyways don’t worry, we’re not dealing with captain cold or killer frost just old man winter at it again. Yes I have been watching the flash series. 

(Above:Timing of the blizzard conditions expected through the region, the worst of it will probably happen until 4pm tomorrow but around the 6pm hour on the American border.)

Thursday Night: A Alberta clipper will move into southeastern Saskatchewan this evening before moving into our region by the late evening hours, ahead of it increasing clouds will be moving in and a swath of snow will develop from just to the east of Brandon and Deloraine at the American border up to Dauphin and points north all the way to the Manitoba/Saskatchewan border. As this swath of snow moves into the region over the next several hours snow and blowing snow will impact the region from west to east, winds will gust up to 70km/h. A general 3 to 5cm is expected. The snow will leave the southwest region shortly after midnight, It will leave the rest of the region by the morning hours to early afternoon. Blizzard conditions will start in the early morning hours in the pre dawn hours in the southwest, and will move into the red river valley by early to mid morning. What I am expecting out of this is that winds will blow from 60km/h out of the NW with winds gusting to 80km/h and at times 90km/h, this will impact a large portion of the southern half of Manitoba. I’m expecting areas to experience near zero visibility at times. Temperatures tonight will drop into the mid to high minus teens and low minus 20’s (-15 to -21C), windchill values will drop into the low to mid to high minus twenties and low minus 30’s. Winnipeg will only see a windchill of minus 20C, whereas everyone else will see windchills from (-22C to -31C). 

Heading into the day on Friday the blizzard will continue into the afternoon with much of the severe winter weather easing by the early afternoon. I’m still expecting near zero visibility at times in the areas mentioned in the map above. Temperatures will rise into the mid to high minus teens in the afternoon, windchill values will be in the mid to high minus 20’s (-23 to -27C) during the afternoon with the blizzard. 

Friday Night: Calmer conditions will arrive by the evening, as arctic air filters in once again with a high pressure system sinking south across the Canadian prairies. Overnight Friday into Saturday temperatures will drop significantly, overnight lows will reach the mid to high minus 20’s (-25C to -30C) with windchill values of (-31C to -37C). 

The weekend: Another clipper system will move into our area and this one might pack a punch, the forecast snowfall rates appear higher, and the isobars as we like to call them as a measure of how strong the winds are around systems look to be quite tight (this means there is a probable chance for blizzard conditions or winter storm conditions on Saturday again. It appears this one will hit more of eastern Manitoba and some sections of southern Manitoba, with the highest amounts in Eastern Manitoba rounding up to about 5-10cm, and further west 2 to 5cm. Saturday will also feature high temperatures in the low minus single digits (-3 to -8C) and some places in the SW may get above 0C. Saturday night will feature a arctic front dropping south with a swath of snow and blowing snow that will only last a few hours in the south. Falling temperatures overnight are likely , with lows by morning in the low to high minus teens (-10C along the border to -15C in the RRV and -18C as you go north through the interlakes). Sunday will be a blah day again . 😆. Cloudy skies are likely with high temperatures in the mid to high minus teens (-14C to -19C) and windchills in the mid to high minus twenties (-24 to -29C) with areas around the Manitoba lakes feeling the low minus 30’s (-30C to -35C). Sunday night: Our well loved and hated foe high pressure will aid in dropping temperatures down into the mid to high minus 20’s (-24C to -29C), a few areas around -30 to -32C unfortunately we again will see windchill values in the mid to high minus 30’s (-32C to -36C) and a few locales in the interlakes going down to -40 to -43C. 

Well keep you updated on the storm possible for Saturday as new model data comes in. Feel free to check for updates on www.pivotalweather.com if you absolutely need to when I’m not around. -Mike McGregor 

Below Seasonal Weather Continues and Alberta Clippers Abound

 Much of southern sections of Manitoba will be experiencing seasonal weather conditions over the next 24-48 hours, unfortunately another clipper system will move through the region bringing a high risk of snow and blowing snow. Find out where and when and how long this seasonal temperature trend will continue for .

Tuesday: An Alberta clipper will be in the region, ahead of it a large swath of snow and blowing snow will move through the area from Tuesday early morning through the afternoon. A general 3-5cm of snow can be expected, much of the region will also see snow and blowing snow as a result of this systems, and near zero visibility is possible through the morning and afternoon. Heavier snow will likely fall at the American border. Temperatures will stay around the high minus single digits to the low teens (-8 to -12C). Windchill values will remain in the mid to high minus teens (-14C to -18C), with the coldest values in the southwest. 

Tuesday night: An area of arctic high pressure will move, south from the Canadian northern prairies by Alberta. As a result temperatures overnight will drop into the mid minus teens (-14C to -18C) and windchill values into the mid to high minus 20’s. (-24C to -28C). 

Wednesday: Sunny to partly cloudy skies are expected and as a result there will likely be colder temperatures with that as well. Temperatures will sit in the mid minus teens (-14C to -18C). Windchills will sit in the low to mid minus twenties (-22C to -26C). Overnight temperatures will suffer greatly as arctic air and NW winds filter in, as a result our low temperatures will drop into the high minus twenties and low minus 30’s (-27C to -33C). Windchill values in the high minus 20’s and low to mid minus 30’s are likely, (-28C to -43C). a few areas in the low -40s are possible especially in the interlakes. 

I’m getting tired of writing these updates on the cold weather to be honest , here let’s hope it doesn’t take much longer for us to get to better weather conditions and warmth. Let’s hope Spring weather comes soon. 😊😊😊

-Mike McGregor

Change to blog postings

 Good evening Due to the time constraints that I have at the moment, I will only be updating the weather blog when bad weather arrives. Until then I will be doing updates on Mondays and Thursday’s. Monday for the week and Thursday for the weekend.

Let me know what you think . 

-Mike McGregor

Cold Weather For Weekend

 Much of southern Manitoba has been through a period of warm weather,, and a unsettled weather pattern. This pattern looks to shift. A large area of arctic high pressure will move into our area, bringing with it cool and calm conditions. 

On the day Saturday mostly cloudy skies are likely in the afternoon temperatures in the mid to high minus teens are likely across the region (-15 to -20C), This airmass will contribute to temperatures in the mid to high minus teens (-15C to —19C), and temperatures in the low to mid minus 20’s in the southeast with the warmer temps in the southwest on Saturday. Windchill values in the upper minus teens are likely (-18 to -20C) in the southwest, and western Manitoba, areas in the south central and south east will see a decent chance at windchills in the low to mid minus twenties (-20 to -26C). 

Saturday night a large area of the region will see clear skies but increasing cloud by morning and will probably encounter temperatures in the upper minus teens in the southwest (-15 to -18C), with areas in the south central and southeast seeing the low minus 20’s to mid minus 20’s (-20 to -26C). Windchills in southern sections of Manitoba will exceed the high minus twenties in the SW (-27 to -30C) and low minus thirties in the SE (-30 to -36C). The worst of the cold will hit the south central and south eastern half of Manitoba. 

Sunday: An Alberta clipper will move into the region which will bring a swath of snow that will move quickly from west to east, it’s possible that due to the high pressure system off to the south winds will once again contribute to snow and blowing snow, and reduced visibility at times. A quick 3-5cm of snow is possible. Temperatures will also be on the milder side in southwestern Manitoba, where highs in the mid to high minus single digits (-6 to -10C) are likely, with areas in the south central and south east will see highs in the mid to high minus teens (-15 to -18C). Windchill values will only be felt in the Brandon area just to the east into the rest of southern Manitoba except the escarpment ( with values ranging from -15C to -28C). 

Sunday Night: Clearing skies are likely for a large portion of the region, temperatures will drop into the mid to high minus teens with low minus twenties (-16 to -23C) possible in spots. Windchill values will drop into the mid to high minus twenties (-23 to -28C). 

First half of the week: Much of the region can expect high temperatures* and overnight low temperatures in the mid to high minus teens (-10C to -15C)* and overnight lows in the low minus 20’s (-20 to -25C).  There’s a chance at a few clippers moving through our area during the week too, well keep you updated on that  

Milder weather arrives

 This write up will be brief as I don’t have a lot of time, 

Temperatures on Tuesday in Manitoba based on The NAM model. (Above) Seeing highs in the low plus single digits . ❤️❤️. 

Much of southern Manitoba will encounter a period of warmer weather as a mild pacific airmass,, moves into southern sections of Manitoba. Temperatures will rise into the high minus single digits to low plus single digits for daytime highs, with highs on Tuesday surpassing the 0C mark with most regions seeing a chance for rain and snow on the day as well. Snowfall accumulations will mostly sit in the 3-5cm range in the southeast and more around 2-4cm in the southwest. On Tuesday night cloudy skies will clear and cooler temps will filter in with most areas seeing highs in the minus mid to high single digits to low minus teens by morning (-7C to -10C). Temperatures will take a bit of a drop on Wednesday as cool air filters in behind the low pressure system, temperatures will sit in the upper minus single digits and the low minus teens (-6C to -12C). 

Temperatures on Thursday in Manitoba based on The NAM model. (Above) We will be seeing highs in the low plus single digits again as well, but not until the late afternoon early evening hours. 

Wednesday night into Thursday cold air will sit over the area with lows in the mid to high minus teens (-12C to -18C) windchill values might be higher than that with most areas seeing values in the minus 20’s. Thursday will see a return to milder weather thanks to another approaching low pressure system , temperatures during the afternoon will rise in to the low to mid single digits, with a chance at snow, freezing rain and rain. Exact details of this event are uncertain yet , however it appears there will be a initial band of snow , followed by freezing rain and rain. Then overnight into Friday a cold front will swing south making a transition into the mid to high minus teens for lows around (-10 to -15C) and colder with lows closer to minus twenty by morning in some places. 

I hope you have a great rest of your week. Update will be coming in on Friday. -Mike