Southern sections of Manitoba is likely going to experience some unsettled weather over the next few days, several waves of low pressure will move across the region starting tomorow afternoon. A strong trough over the western Usa coast will contribute to multiple areas of low pressure developing, the timing of the frontal systems into next week is still being figured out.
Friday afternoon and evening above: shower and thunderstorm chances return during the afternoon and evening models are disagreeing on the timing of the system HRRR is suggesting most precipitation arriving by afternoon whereas the NAM and RAP model suggest later on in the evening hours.
Tonight: Showers and Thunderstorms are likely during the overnight hours, as I write This blog article at ten oh nine PMA line of thunderstorms is moving into southwestern Manitoba this is is likely to expected to persist into the morning hours. There's a chance that this convection drifts into the Red River valley by the morning this would change our forecast for Friday's significantly. Regardless temperatures tonight in southern Manitoba will stay warm with overnight low values in the teens, there is a chance that some areas may sit around the twenty degree mark especially in areas that do not see precipitation tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not expected however based on current model data, there may be a marginally severe storm or two however a majority of the severe thunderstorms will occur stateside.
Friday: A slow moving cold front is forecast to move through our region on Friday ahead of it temperatures likely are gonna be sitting in the mid to upper 20s there is a possibility that areas in the Red River valley including Winnipeg Portage la Prairie and the white shell may see high temperatures approaching the thirty degree celsius mark. As this front moves through marginal instability of 500 to 1000 joules per kilogram are forecast to build into our region with increasing chances for shower and thunderstorms in the afternoon. This line is expected to reach the Red River valley by the early evening late afternoon hours. Current high resolution models did not pick up the strength of the thunderstorms in southwestern Manitoba so based on all the information that I can gather there is a chance that some of these thunderstorms may in fact be severe Friday afternoon and evening. During Friday night thunderstorms or showers will clear the region by late evening or early midnight hours they should weaken significantly after sunset. Temperatures during the overnight time frame are expected to drop into the lower teens in southwestern Manitoba and mid to upper teens in southeastern Manitoba the dividing line is Lake Manitoba temperatures after Lake Manitoba towards the West will be on the cooler side.
Saturday: Calmer weather conditions are likely on the day Saturday as we sit on the east side of a stationary front, There is a chance in areas of southwestern Manitoba for some white showers during morning however looks like only areas of extreme southeastern Manitoba may be at risk for a couple of rumbles of Thunder during the afternoon and evening Temperatures on Saturday are forecast to be seasonal or slightly above seasonal with values in the mid 20s and very little in the way of humidity. No organized precipitation is forecast however for Saturday night into Sunday. The temperature is forecast on Sunday night are likely to be in the upper teens around our normal daytime high temperatures.
Sunday: Temperatures on the day Sunday are likely even to soar higher than earlier in the week what is interesting about this is that some areas may be about 10 to 12 degrees above normal there is a slight risk of some thunderstorms on the days Sunday with the heat forecast. Bottom line temperatures on Sunday across the board will be in the upper 20s with the possibility of some areas reaching 30 degrees Celsius dew point temperatures will remain in the mid to high teens so there will be some moisture and humidity on Sunday. Sunday Night: Another wave of instability is forecast to move through southern Manitoba on the night Sunday into Monday models are having a hard time figuring out if the cap will break with this if it does there will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms pinpointing where exactly they happen is difficult to determine at this point however there will be a possibility for some unsettled weather into Monday morning. Severe thunderstorms isolated in nature are possible as a frontal system lifts north.
Next Week: Increasing chances of precipitation look likely next week with multiple waves of low pressure moving through there is an increased risk of seeing higher levels of convective available potential energy as the heat also arrives with these systems. It Very well be our last chance at seeing any organized thunderstorm events bottom line we could be in for a lot of rain if models continue bringing in the Pacific and Gulf moisture at once as forecast. Temperatures will moderate after these fronts pass through.
