Slight Risk of Severe Weather Arrives

 Southern Manitoba will be seeing a return to possible thunderstorms in the southeast part of Manitoba during the day Sunday. It has been a relatively quiet last couple of weeks in southeastern Manitoba, the west has been lighting up a lot lately. However that is about to change, as a low pressure system is set to impact areas of NE ND and NW MN. This same low is likely to set off some unsettled weather over the next 24 hours. 

(Above): NAM convection likely developing during the afternoon in SE MB. Potential for severe thunderstorms are there.

(Above): Thunderstorms which will likely be severe in the southeast may develop during the morning hours, before another round may develop in north Dakota by mid afternoon moving NE into the red river valley.) I will have a update in the morning with another photo above this updated.  

Sunday: An area of instability is likely over the extreme southeast in the morning hours, models earlier were showing robust convection developing in the southeast from Steinbach to the whiteshell areas with severe thunderstorms a possibility. That area of the province is in a slight risk. These thunderstorms will be quite potent, there is a risk of damaging winds, large hail. Flooding rains are likely in the areas that are impacted by these storms in the morning hours. Tornadoes however do not look likely. Based on latest convective models there will be another threat developing later in the day in the red river valley for severe thunderstorms however a marginal risk will exist in this area. My concern is that the NAM model has been showing relatively strong shear, so if storms happen they may rotate however Justin mentioned to me tornadoes arent as likely in our neck of the woods but higher in NW MN. However any storms that develop will have the potential to bring heavy rainfall, and large hail. Given that we will be on the backside of the low pressure system there may be some brief spin ups. Any thunderstorms that develop will likely move north and northeast quite quickly. I will know more specifics in the morning, but regardless this is going to be southeastern Manitobas turn at showers and storms. Temperatures in the afternoon will only rise into the upper teens and low 20's. There will also be some humidity mixed in as well. Thunderstorms will likely clear out by the late evening hours. 

The Week Ahead: Calmer Weather is likely with temperatures moderating in the teens and low 20's. There may be a few low pressure systems that move through during the week.