Hey, what’s up everybody? I have an update on the weather situation in Southern Manitoba. We have an interesting next 24 to 48 hours on the way. Southern instructions in Manitoba is at risk of seeing some severe weather on the day Monday. A trough of low pressure is expected to approach our region.
During the day Monday (Above) severe weather is possible in these regions simulated radar from high res models. There may be some residual showers from convection left over in southeastern Manitoba as that clears out temperature should skyrocket into the upper 20s. Dewpoint temperatures should rise into the upper teens and low 20s and it looks like sheer will rise into the 50 to 60 knot range towards the evening. Ahead of this General MUCAPE values look to exceed 2000 J per kilogram, with super cell composite values less than eight. All of this combined along with approaching upper level trough there will be a risk for scattered super cell thunderstorms with the potential for hail up to the size of golf balls, and an isolated risk of tornadoes . There is a chance that there may be a line of thunderstorms which develop further to the west earlier in the day. Areas at risk are from Portage La Prairie east to Winnipeg and NE to the Lake Winnipeg area. It all depends on how the system evolves. Models have been fairly inconsistent this year however, look for a stormy evening in southeastern Manitoba. If nothing happens just know I was writing this to inform you all of the possibility of this type of weather happening.
On Monday night, expect storms to clear out of the region. Then another increasing threat for storms as likely as another thunderstorm complex develops in south eastern Saskatchewan and Northwestern, North Dakota. This may turn into a MCS complex, which will move north east through the late overnight timeframe into the morning hours. Models are kind of still inconsistent with the development and timing on the system forming. This will likely future a wind and rain threat with the last system in North Dakota giving wind gust up to 200 km an hour. I don’t think that this will be an occurrence with these storms maybe gusts up to 100 at max. These storms will be known as ridge riders. They were likely be rainfall rates and after cause localized flash flooding Justin and I will monitor this situation on the early morning hours on Tuesday.
Tuesday, I’m expecting thunderstorms persist throughout the early morning to late afternoon hours in the southeast part of Manitoba. This may change and I will update this information at the comment section. Mostly cloudy skies are likely in the day on Tuesday after thunderstorms clear. Temperatures on Tuesday will rise into the low to mid 20s except for areas in the southwest, which will be in the upper teens for most of the day by evening. All of southeastern Manitoba will be in the teens as a much cooler air mass comes in behind the front.
Much calmer weather conditions are likely on Wednesday. With highs in the 20’s once again expected There is also a chance on Wednesday morning for another round of convection however, this is only showing on one model solution at the time.
