Heat in a Hand Basket returns with Thunderstorms?! 🧐

A warm and unseasonably above normal air mass will arrive this week, boosting our temperatures up to potentially record breaking values on Tuesday through Wednesday. There will also be another system rolling in on Wednesday-Friday bringing out some unsettled weather. Find out what that means for us. 

Tuesday: Will end up being one of the first hottest days of the week, sunny skies and a southerly flow all ahead of an area of low pressure will boost our temperatures well into the high twenties and the low thirties for a large portion of the south (27-34C). The exception will be the interlakes regions, you may only get up to 25C. It’s possible a few areas may see high temperatures above thirty degrees, that’s looking possible in the Dauphin-Assesippi regions as well as extreme southwestern Manitoba and areas along

the American border. There’s a chance that records could get broken as well, with a lot of areas seeing high temperatures forecast higher than there previous record Information From @ecccweatherMB on twitter: https://t.co/1pcYXqDTfm Winnipeg: Sunny high 29C. Brandon: Sunny High 33C. Dauphin: Sunny high 31C. 

Tuesday Night: Mild air will continue to sit over our area, by morning a warm front should be draped over the eastern half of Manitoba with a cold front sitting over western Manitoba at the SK/MB border. Clear skies are likely over a large section of the province with the exception of the southwest where some scattered clouds are possible overnight. Temperatures will sit around the mid to high teens (14 to 18C), unusually mild for lows as we normally see lows this time of year below 10C or slightly above. Winnipeg: Clear, low 17C. Brandon: Clear, low 16C. Dauphin: Clear, low 15C. 

Wednesday: Will end up being one of the last days of the heat, a cold front will advance into the southern sections of Manitoba during the late afternoon hours. Ahead of it increasing amounts of cloud cover are possible, also increasing amounts of instability are possible during the afternoon and evening mainly in the middle levels of the atmosphere. Anywhere from 800-1,200J/Kg of CAPE (Storm Energy) is possible. There will be a risk for thunderstorms to develop in the late afternoon hours into the early evening period before sunset. The best risk area appears to be in the red river valley into eastern sections of the province. Storms will have a slight chance of becoming severe, if not I’m only expecting they will remain below severe limits on the strong side. The American border just east of Pilot mound through the Winnipeg area north into the interlakes and east to the Manitoba border all the way south to Sandilands , are at risk for storms on Wednesday. There will be a chance for showers in the southwestern half of Manitoba, however it won’t be a washout . Temperatures for the day will soar into the mid to high twenties again; the exception being that the southeast will see the hottest weather where some locations can expect highs to soar into the low thirties. Winnipeg: Sunny, then partly cloudy with 60% chance of showers late in the afternoon, risk of strong thunderstorms late in the afternoon. High 32C. Brandon: Sunny, then partly cloudy with 60% chance of showers. High 21C. Dauphin: Sunny, then partly cloudy with 60% chance of showers. High 22C. 

Wednesday Night: It looks as though a cold front will be moving through the eastern sections of Manitoba.  The good news is that this will drop our temperatures the unfortunate part of this , is that it will also bring in unsettled weather. There may be some strong thunderstorms before sunset, however they will weaken as the sun sets. As the front slowly moves through a large batch of showers and embedded thunderstorms might move through overnight into Thursday if it does so there may be enough rainfall to lessen the drought stricken areas of Manitoba. However consensus shows only 5-15mm max. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid teens overnight. Winnipeg: Cloudy with 60% chance of showers and risk of thunderstorms ⛈. Low 15C. Brandon: Cloudy with 60% chance of showers, early in the evening.  🌧 Low 14C. Dauphin: Partly cloudy with 60% chance of showers in the evening. Then cloudy.  Low 10C. 

Warmer weather arrives for Weekend.

 Well, I just finished celebrating my 26th birthday party. I had a lot of fun and got some nice gifts. As well I haven’t been on here in a while. My plan is to get back to more regular updates. As for this update I’ll be keeping it simple with basic details. Less of the big words . 

Fall weather has been working it’s way into southern sections of Manitoba over the past few weeks, unfortunately summer looks to make a comeback, with some heat and the possibility of breaking record temperatures. Find out how long that will last and how hot it’ll get.. Read on for more.

Much of this weekend should be pleasant, during the morning on Saturday a batch of showers will move through the southeastern half of Manitoba during the morning with partly cloudy conditions expected for the day. An area of low pressure is expected to approach Manitoba, during the day on Saturday. Temperatures will soar into the mid to high 20’s, in much of southern sections on Saturday, the warmest weather will happen in southwestern Manitoba, the parklands into the Red River valley. Highs will end up in the (25-27C) range. Areas in southeastern Manitoba and the interlakes will be in the high teens (17 to 20C) and however will struggle to reach 20C. Heading into Saturday Night it should end up being calm, clear skies are expected in the southeast with some scattered showers and heavier cloud expected . Temperatures will drop into the mid to high single digits (7 to 9C) overnight into Sunday. The Manitoba lakes may end up being a bit warmer closer to 10-15C). Sunday an area of low pressure will move into North Dakota by the afternoon, the warmer weather will end up staying stateside. Beautiful sunny skies are likely during the day. However I’m still expecting our forecast temperatures to still rise into the low to mid 20’s (20-25C). The odd place may see temperatures lower than 20C, especially in the southeast. As well the Manitoba lakes will end up being cooler, more like the mid teens. Sunday night, will end up being more average for overnight lows. Areas in the southeast will sit in the mid teens (10 to 14C), elsewhere overnight lows will end up sitting in the low teens or high single digits (8 to 12C). 

Early Next Week: An area of high pressure off to our east and an approaching warm front will aid in warmer and milder air to drive into the region. In other words unseasonably warm air will arrive, Dog days of summer me thinks. Also the heat will intensify and likely soar into the mid to high twenties, with the possibility of a few areas seeing 30C Monday-Wednesday. There will end up being the possibility, of some showers or thunderstorms on Wednesday to Thursday. Until then enjoy the warmth!

Have a good weekend!!

-Mike

Beautiful, above seasonal weather continues

Much of southern Manitoba is seeing above seasonal temperatures thanks to a large area of low pressure bringing in a southerly to southwesterly flow, along with it, it’ll bring calm weather will make for a fairly nice weekend. Unfortunately some unsettled weather is possible, read on to find out where and when and what to expect. 

Good chance at seeing highs in the high 20’s and near or slightly above 30C on Sunday in the white circled area. There is a chance elsewhere but it’s less evident or probable as it’s only the RRV/SE on the NAM model I’m using. 

Saturday: Sunny skies are expected for Saturday, temperatures will rise into the mid to high 20’s (24-27C) the warmer temperatures will be in the parklands,with more moderate temperatures in the rest of the region. Saturday night:  there may be some more cloud on Saturday night as the warm front passes through. A few showers are possible in southern Manitoba overnight , a few rumbles of thunder are also possible but because of capping no organized storms are expected. Temperatures will drop into the mid to high teens, (14-17C) closer to our normal day time highs, oddly. 

Sunday: Will be one of the warmest days we will probably see this season, and probably not again until next year. A cold front will likely cross through the red river valley and the eastern half of Manitoba by afternoon, despite this we will still have calm weather conditions with a majority of the unstable weather occurring in NW Ontario. There is a solid chance at seeing our daytime high temperatures soar into the mid to high 20’s with some areas seeing 30C (25-31C). The best areas for seeing the 30C mark include the Red River valley, Winnipeg and eastern Manitoba. Winnipeg definitely has a chance at seeing 30C on Sunday. 

Sunday Night: An approaching trough of low pressure will sink south ahead of it it’ll allow for a batch of heavier cloud cover with showers and some rumbles of thunder to move into our area, mainly from North Dakota late overnight into the morning period. Temperatures will drop into the low to mid teens (12 to 15C). 

First half of the week: Showers and embedded thunderstorms will occur for the first half of the day and last into the early evening. Severe weather is not expected however. Much cooler weather is anticipated as a northwesterly flow takes over, temperatures will change and drop well into the low to mid teens for daytime highs (11 to 15C). The coldest air appears to sit in the western half of Manitoba where a northwesterly flow will be present. Milder weather is likely for Tuesday with calmer weather conditions expected thanks to a building area of high pressure, even warmer weather possible on Wednesday as the high pressure moves off into Ontario bringing a southerly flow back to our area. I’m seeing a chance at us seeing the 20-25C range again . 

Seasonal week ahead, increasing threat for storms midweek?!

 Much of our region has experienced seasonal to slightly above normal temperatures over the past few days, this trend looks to continue as a persistent zonal flow sits over the region. A trough will sit over our region which will inhibit our temperatures from rising into the 20’s. 

Monday Night: An area of showers and weak thunderstorms are expected to rumble through the southeastern half of Manitoba , with some spotty thunderstorms in the southwestern half of Manitoba by Melita east into the Killarney regions. The cold front looks to exit the province overnight, there is a chance of a stray shower or 2 before it leaves our region. Clearing skies are expected for the evening into the overnight period. Temperatures will drop well into the high single digits, (8 to 10C) in areas of southwestern Manitoba and low teens (11 to 14C) in the southeastern Manitoba region. Winnipeg: Partly cloudy 30% chance of showers early this evening. Then clearing. Low 10C. Brandon: Clearing, low 6C. Dauphin: Clear. Low 9C. 

Tuesday: Will end up being one of the nicest days to come this week, sunny skies thanks to high pressure in the northern plains will contribute to this. There’s a good chance at seeing the 20-25C mark for a large section of the south, the only exception is the interlakes north of Teulon where highs will be in the high teens (17-20C). Manitoba lakes might manage to reach the 20C mark or slightly warmer. Winnipeg: Sunny, high 23C. Brandon: Sunny, high 22C. Dauphin: Sunny, high 21C. 

Tuesday Night: Clear skies are likely as a high pressure system to our south keeps the weather stable, alongside with a southerly flow if we were in the middle of the summer we would be talking about lows in the teens or 20’s. However because we are approaching fall even with a southerly flow in place our temperatures will not sit in the teens overnight instead they’ll be much cooler than what we are used to. Lows into the mid to high single digits are likely (6 to 10C), with the exception of the Manitoba lakes and eastern Manitoba seeing lows a degree or 2 above 10C. Winnipeg: Clear, increasing clouds before morning. Low 9C. Brandon: Clear, increasing clouds before morning. Low 6C. Dauphin: Clear, increasing clouds by morning. Low 11C. 

Wednesday: A low pressure system will be coming into Manitoba with the warm front hovering over the red river valley area by late afternoon and this will be a difficult forecast, a lot of uncertainty with the timing and impact of precipitation expected. However, it appears possibly that cloudy skies with a chance for showers will come through in the morning. However the NAM appears to be the outlier on this, the RDPS and the GDPS show a chance for mostly cloudy skies to patches of sun in areas of the south. Regardless, there will be a chance for showers in the morning. Then partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon, increasing amounts of instability will be present 1000J/Kg or Joules per kilogram (amount of energy per kilogram in the atmosphere) Moisture won’t be lacking either with the dewpoints, sitting at 13C increasing to 15-16C by early evening. Also there will be adequate shear, with around 40-50knots of bulk shear, enough to support storm Organization. Once the warm front and attendant cold front come through in the evening an increasing risk for thunderstorms may occur if enough daytime heating can occur. The risk for thunderstorms will be in the red river valley and eastern Manitoba during the late afternoon. We should know more about the severity of storms possible by Tuesday evening. My best weatherman’s guess is the risk for large hail, damaging wind gusts over 90km/h because of the shear present as well as torrential rainfall. There also is a chance the best dynamics could move into Ontario. We will keep you updated. Winnipeg: Mainly cloudy, with 30% chance of showers in the morning and near noon. Becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. 60% chance of showers with the risk of thunderstorms late in the afternoon. High 25C. Brandon: Cloudy with 30% chance of showers in the morning, then partly cloudy. High 26C. Dauphin: Mainly cloudy, with 60% chance of showers in the morning. Becoming partly cloudy in the afternoon. High 26C. 

Wednesday Night: Showers and or thunderstorms will likely occur in the early evening in the red river valley into Ontario, will probably exit the province by evening. Forecast may change if the timing of the system changes. Temperatures will of course drop into the low teens (10 to 15C) for areas of southeastern Manitoba, the parklands and the Manitoba lakes. Areas in the red river valley, southwestern Manitoba, and the interlakes will once again drop into the mid to high single digits (6 to 10C). Winnipeg: 60% chance of showers in the evening with the risk of thunderstorms, some may be severe. Clearing in the evening. Low 10C. Brandon: Partly cloudy 30% chance of showers early in the evening with the risk of a thunderstorm. Clearing in the evening. Dauphin: Partly cloudy low 13C.

Second half of the week: Sunny skies are likely on Thursday and Friday , with increasing cloud possible on Friday night. I’m also seeing a large swath of precipitation develop on Friday night into Saturday on the GDPS, the NAM hasn’t caught on to it yet. There may be a possibility that we could see a batch of thunderstorms on Friday night ahead of a warm front. Other than that our day time highs will vary from sitting in the high teens and low 20’s, (16 to 22C) with our overnight lows in the high single digits and the low teens. 

Mild second half of week ahead, chances for showers and thunderstorms

 Much of southern Manitoba has been finally able to experience cooler and more seasonal temperatures, as of late this summer has been unbearably hot and dry. As we continue the second half of the week, a zonal flow will be in place allowing for a chance for temperatures to remain seasonal, there is a chance for a low pressure system to impact our area Thursday into Friday. Find out how warm it will get, and details on the potential for showers and thunderstorms on Friday.

Wednesday: Beautiful weather is expected for the day , high pressure will move into southern Saskatchewan during the afternoon ahead of it a northwesterly wind can be expected with mainly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Temperatures for the day will soar into the high teens to low 20’s, (15-22C) there may be some areas that cool closer to (15-17) over the Manitoba lakes. Winnipeg: Partly Sunny, some clouds. high 22C. Brandon: Partly Sunny, some clouds high 23C. Dauphin: Sunny, high 22C. 

Wednesday Night: Clear then increasing clouds are likely by the overnight hours, a chance for showers are possible into the early morning hours in the interlakes and southeastern Manitoba. Temperatures will drop into the high single digits to the low teens in southern Manitoba (9 to 12C). Areas further north in the interlakes will see lows in the low to mid teens (10 to 14C). Winnipeg: Partly cloudy, then 30% chance of showers. Low 10C. Brandon: Partly cloudy, low 9C. Dauphin: Partly cloudy, low 11C. 

Thursday: We will end up on the backside of an area of high pressure, this will allow a southerly to southwesterly flow to take place. This may help boost our temperatures a bit, sunny skies are expected during the day with a mixture of clouds and sun expected in some areas. Temperatures will soar into the mid to high twenties for a majority of the region, (24 to 28C) some areas may get close to the 30C mark in southwestern Manitoba. No significant weather is forecast however. Winnipeg: Sunny, high 25C. Brandon: Sunny, high 26C. Dauphin: Sunny. High 27C. 

Thursday Night: Clear conditions are expected with some cloud cover. Overnight lows will drop into the low to mid teens, with the cooler side of the temperatures occuring in the southwest. Winnipeg: Clear, low 14C. Brandon: Clear, low 10C. Dauphin: Clear low 14C. 

Friday: A strong southerly flow will be in place, ahead of a cold front. Sunny skies are expected for the first half of the day before increasing clouds arrive by afternoon, with a sun and cloud mix. There will be increasing amounts of instability and a chance for showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon and evening. Most of the thunderstorms that form will be non severe, there is a small possibility that some of them may turn severe. However that chance is low. The best risk for thunderstorms is in the parklands region south through the interlakes , parts of the red river valley and eastern Manitoba. Temperatures will soar into the high 20’s, with near or a few degrees above 30C temperatures possible in sections along and south of the trans Canada highway (25 to 32C). The best areas for seeing over 30C extend from Winnipeg south to the American border in the pembina valley and the red river valley, and another area in the extreme southwest. Winnipeg: Sunny, then partly cloudy with 60% chance of showers with risk of thunderstorms late in the afternoon. High 30C. Brandon: Sunny, then partly cloudy with 60% chance of showers late in the afternoon with the risk of thunderstorms. High 29C. Dauphin: Sunny then partly cloudy with 60% chance of showers late in the afternoon, with the risk of thunderstorms. High 26C. 

Friday Night: There will be a continued chance for showers and the risk for thunderstorms, in the evening mainly non severe expected. Clearing skies will come into the region late in the evening and after midnight from west to east. Temperatures will drop drastically overnight with lows in the high single digits in the parklands and interlakes regions (7 to 10C), areas along and south of the transcanada highway north through Winnipeg and just north of stonewall east into eastern Manitoba may see lows in the low teens (10 to 14C). The exception being the Manitoba lakes where low temperatures will sit in the mid teens (15 to 17C), due to the warm lake water advecting or helping the air stay relatively warm. Take for instance Victoria Beach will drop to 15C, whereas areas around there will see colder weather. Winnipeg: Mainly cloudy , with 60% chance of showers through the evening with the risk of thunderstorms. Clearing near midnight. Low 13C. Brandon: Mainly cloudy, 60% chance of showers early in the evening with the risk of thunderstorms. Clearing in the evening.  Low 9C. Dauphin: Mainly cloudy with 60% chance of showers early in the evening with the risk of thunderstorms. Clearing in the evening. Low 8C. 

The weekend: Our low pressure system will be moving into Ontario behind it an approaching area of high pressure will build into our area, however there will be a good chance at cloudy skies, there will be a chance for showers during Saturday afternoon and some on Saturday evening. Cloudy but calmer weather is expected on Sunday. Temperatures will sit in the mid to high teens on Saturday and Sunday with lows in the low teens and high single digits Saturday night and Sunday night. More details on the weekend on Friday. 

Seasonal weather continues,

NEWS: Weather forecasts will no longer be created for regions over the coming weeks until, I can have more time to create outlooks and forecasts for the big towns and cities in Manitoba. Please see the right side of this blog for forecasts by environment Canada. Southern Manitoba has been experiencing a seasonal weather pattern over the past week and a half, the good news is that some warmer weather will come in for the next few days. 

Saturday: A trough of low pressure looks to be moving into southern sections of Manitoba, with a increasing amount of cloud cover throughout the afternoon. There is a risk for showers and thunderstorms to develop in the day ,,they look to be non severe. Temperatures for the day will soar into the low to mid 20’s (20 to 25C) with a majority of the warmth occuring south of the border. High teens are expected in the interlakes and in the parklands part of Manitoba (17 to 20C). 

Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms will continue in the early evening before clear skies will come in, partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies are expected in the southeast and in the southwest portion of Manitoba. Temperatures will be dropping into the high single digits for the red river valley and southwestern Manitoba (7 to 10C), areas in the pembina valley and the interlakes will drop into the low teens (10 to 13C). 

Sunday: Cooler weather is expected on Sunday with partly cloudy to partly sunny skies expected, under high pressure. Temperatures will soar into the high teens (15 to 20C). With temperatures above 20C possible in southwestern Manitoba. 

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy skies are expected in much of southern Manitoba, some clear skies are possible as well. Overnight low temperatures will drop into the low to mid teens (10 to 14C). 

First Half of the Week: Warmer weather returns,, a few low pressure systems will move through the area on Monday bringing a chance for showers and thunderstorms with temperatures in the mid 20s possible. More details on Monday.