Spring Arrives, slightly below normal temperatures continue. Melting likely Regardless.

As spring arrives today much of the weather that we have had will remain the same, looking ahead at a quiet week of weather our province will likely see temperatures remaining near or slightly below normal. Regardless melting will continue because the spring sun is now high enough even on cold days to allow for melting to occur. The real melt may be further off. Find out when the next batch of warmer or more normal spring like weather can be hopefully expected.

Look at Temperatures on the day Thursday (above). Cooler than average weather continues.

The day on Wednesday should be sunny and bright there will be periods of cloud cover, a system that moved into NW Ontario will on the backside bring in a northwesterly flow. Temperatures for the day today will sit in the low to mid minus single digits, with a slight chance for flurries. 

Tonight much of the same can be expected, with lows in the mid to high minus single digits. Areas further north into the inter lakes can expect lows in the low minus teens, nothing any colder than -12C. 

Thursday: A southerly flow will begin to establish itself over southern sections of Manitoba, fog patches are possible during the morning hours, however little in the way of any weather is likely. Temperatures will continue to see some moderation however they continue to be below our average with highs only able to reach the low to mid minus single digits for Thursday. 

Thursday night: Cloudy weather is likely as overnight lows will drop likely into the mid to high minus single digits, this is likely a transition into warmer overnight lows for a brief period. 

Friday will likely still have values not as cold as in recent times, with high temperatures in the low minus single digits. There will be periods of cloudier weather. 

Friday night a cold front will begin to approach our area but it won’t affect our temperatures much, there will be widespread chance at flurries on Friday night as the front swings through with cloudy skies. Temperatures will likely drop into the low to mid minus single digits to around -10C especially colder in the southwest. 

 

The weekend: That cold front as I discussed will begin to dig south through our area on Saturday above…  leaving behind it a weekend of temperatures well below our average highs. Our temperatures will likely take a swing downwards in the south but that spring sun should help keep our temperatures from diving too significantly. Nothing major weather wise expected but high temperatures for highs on Saturday likely to see the low minus single digits with overnight lows on Saturday night dropping into the mid to high minus teens, near -20C for some in the south. Again on Sunday and Sunday night highs in the mid to high minus single digits. Colder further west you go. Sunday night overnight lows will drop well into the mid to high minus teens and low minus 20’s, or warmer meaning not -20C but near it as the GFS tends to be biased. 

Next week: There are hopes for some change for the colder than average weather to end I see a few days above zero which would be the first of the spring season. We’ll see if that trend continues when I write the next blog on Monday. 

-Mike McGregor

Snowy, Messy weekend of winter weather, albeit mild temperatures ahead.

 Much of our region has had a break when it comes to unsettled weather for the last several weeks, in fact we’ve been having a long snow drought. Milder weather has arrived for us however that will likely bring a change as we head into the weekend. This change I’m talking about isn’t related to colder weather, I’m sorry to be the bear of bad news however it appears that we will be seeing a SNOWSTORM. Find out what that means in the latest blog post. 

Much of southern sections of Manitoba are likely to experience some significant weather over the next 48-72 hours. This could also end up being the heaviest snowfall we have seen in recent months as we have been in an ongoing snow drought. Let’s have a look at the latest weather data from the models. 

Friday (above): Ahead of the low pressure system a warm air mass will sit over the area with sunny skies present, this system will likely show up in the evening hours. Temperatures on the day Friday will rise into the low to mid minus single digits (-1 to -4C). Melting will likely take place. Snow will begin this evening as seen below.

Friday Night (Above): This is when the weather will begin to transform into a miserable snowy mess, yes I said snow. Don’t slap the weather man. A large swath of snow will develop on the northside of a 995MB Low and in the process will likely begin moving into southeastern Saskatchewan as it encounters a moist airmass, not hot enough for thunderstorms yet. By about late evening all of southwestern Manitoba should be experiencing heavy snow and blowing snow. Initial thoughts are that it should begin filling into the rest of southern Manitoba by the early morning hours. Read to the end to find out storm total accumulations. Overnight lows on Friday night will likely sit in the mid to high minus single digits around (-7C to -10C) colder the further north you go. 

Saturday (Above): Much of southern Manitoba will be enveloped by heavy snowfall in the afternoon, blowing snow will be an issue and highway and city travel will not be recommended. I’m assuming that possible blizzard conditions will be possible as well. High temperatures on the day high temperatures will sit in the low to mid minus single digits (-5 to -9C).

Saturday night (Above): Snow will continue sitting over our area with a strong influence of blowing snow, winds will be blowing out of the east to southeast around the low pressure system sitting off to our south. Moderate to heavy snow will continue over the southeast and south central part of Manitoba until about shortly after midnight when light snowfall will occur as the system begins to move southeast. Temperatures will likely drop into the mid to high minus single digits (-5C to -9C), with the exceptions of the parklands seeing low temperatures drop again into the minus low teens (-10 to -12C).

Sunday: Light snow will continue for the first half of the day with winds shifting out of the northeast, blowing snow will likely die out by the afternoon. Right now there's not a lot of signals for blowing snow as it was on Saturday. The low pressure system as I mentioned will begin moving further off into Minnesota. Temperatures will likely see values in the low to mid minus single digits (-3C to -7C).

Sunday Night: Calmer weather will likely envelope the region and it is good news because this system will have had some significant impacts. Colder weather will likely arrive on the backside as winds shift out of the north. Areas in southwestern Manitoba will likely see some very cold air on the backside with temperatures dropping into the minus low 20's, windchills may sit around the -30C mark. Areas further east will see lows in the high minus single digits (-6C to -8C) and some patch areas in the east in the low minus teens (-10 to -12C). 

STORM TOTALS:  Areas north of the trans canada highway will see 5 to 10cm, further south you go there will be higher amounts. Heavier impacts will be felt in the western half of Manitoba where the parklands and westman to lake Manitoba will see a general 15 to 20cm, areas just past Gladstone a general 10 to 15cm will be likely that also includes areas of the red river valley. As you go south into the Duck mountains and Peace Gardens along the american border in SW Manitoba towards the american border in the red river valley 20 to 25cm of snow will likely occur there. Amounts could change so all the details of this may not be accurate. Higher amounts are possible. See photo at the top for information, or you can check www.spotwx.com to find out your specific point of interest for snowfall totals. 

The week ahead: Clear signals are in place for the mild weather to continue with high temperatures in the low to mid minus single digits, overnight lows as expected a little colder than expected with lows in the minus teens. Signs are that there will be no significant cold blasts of arctic air in the next 1-2 weeks. Blogs from now on will be posted at the beginning and end of every week. Fridays Wednesday and Monday unless my schedule becomes busier than average. I’ll keep you in the loop on any eventful weather that occurs. 

Good News Blog Post COMING DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. I'm Back after a break :-)

 Full Weather Details on the way coming in on the day Wednesday. As I write this at 10:47PM it is too late to finish or start a blog post.