Abnormally Warm and Dry Weather, continues. Your Weekend details are here.

 Well Folks I am back after a long break, much of the weather lately has been dull and uninteresting. I am unfortunately not enjoying the lack of snow if this was the month of March I would be okay with it. Regardless the latest satellite image from weatherlogics (below) proves how dry it has been lately. As usual with El Nino, the jetstream is further north which is allowing that warmer weather to persist over the Canadian Prairie provinces with our temperatures at least 3 to 5 degrees Celsius above average this past week heading into the second half of the week temperatures will return closer to normal. This weather blog will not be too long as there isn't a lot of weather happening over the next three to five days .

Thursday: Partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies are likely with high temperatures in the low minus single digits and wind chill values in the mid to high minus single digits, some flurries are possible during the morning hours with clearing skies possible in the afternoon the sunniest regions in the province appear to be the Red River valley and the eastern parts of the province. Thursday night: Mild and slightly above average overnight low temperatures continue with lows for the majority of the province in the mid minus to high minus single digits with areas, over the Manitoba Lakes dropping around minus 8 to minus ten degrees Celsius . Just wanted to mention that temperatures which are in the high minus single digits are usually the colder side of values it's the opposite of high plus single digits. 

Friday: Much of southern Manitoba will be under the influence of a southerly flow or westerly flow thanks to us being situated on the southern side of a stationary or warm front this will aid in majority of the cold temperatures sitting over northern Manitoba. It will be another mild day with the majority of the region seeing partly sunny to mostly sunny skies with some cloud. No precipitation or snow is expected on the day Friday with high temperatures again sitting in the low minus single digits close to around 0 degrees it's possible that some areas may approach or get above zero degrees Celsius during the day on Friday .

Friday night: It appears that some increase in cloud may be possible during the overnight hours with some flurries beginning in the morning hours on Saturday. Temperatures on Friday night will likely drop into some seasonal daytime high values which is above normal for overnight lows, with a majority of the region seeing low temperatures in the mid minus equal digits some other areas may drop around closer to minus seven to minus nine degrees . The reason for the warm overnight low temperatures is the continued southwesterly flow ahead of a through low pressure which will impact the region on the weekend.

Our warm weather pattern continues to the weekend with our high temperatures in the mid to high minus single digits for overnight lows and low to mid minus single digits for daytime highs. There is a chance for some flurries on the day Saturday followed by calmer weather conditions on Sunday and the same weather pattern will likely persist into the week next week.

Record Breaking Warmth Impacting Southern Manitoba today, cold air returns for the rest of the week.

 Southern Manitoba get ready to experience a mild day on Monday I know this post is a bit late however I will still have a little bit of a glimpse of what we can expect to see this evening before colder Arctic air moves in on Wednesday there are some concerns this evening as rain is possible over seven sections of Manitoba with the passage of a cold front.  

As I write this a large swath of rain is currently sitting over the Portage La Prairie Regions moving north into the interlakes moving east at about 20 to 30 kilometers an hour, this rain will impact a large portion of the South Central and southeastern parts of Manitoba this evening the unfortunate news is that a lot of this rain may freeze if it does not dry before the cooler air sets in therefore we have a high risk of ice build up on roads and highways.  Temperatures tonight will take a swing down into the low minus single digits from about 11:00 PM to about 6:00 AM onwards there is a high chance that much of the South will be seeing wind chill values around minus 5 to -10C. 

On Tuesday temperatures will soar into the low minus single digits around minus one to minus two degrees celsius for most, in the interlakes to southeast Manitoba. There will be some areas seeing values around the freezing mark or slightly above in the southwest part of the province. Sunny skies are likely for the day on Tuesday with a brief West to northwest wind. On Tuesday night interestingly enough the lakes will be warm enough so that temperatures over areas of Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba will not drop below zero especially if you're closer to the lake shore, areas outside of that specifically all of the southern part of the province except for areas along the border will see overnight lows in the low to mid minus single digits which will be around minus 1 to minus 3 degrees Celsius. 

On Wednesday a trough will sweep from west to east across the southern part of the province leaving behind it a northerly flow which may increase the risk of lake effect flurries or snow showers, mostly cloudy skies are likely for a majority of the day with some sun peeking through at times. The warmest it will get is around zero degrees in the afternoon and the Winnipeg region areas along and South of highway 2 or highway one will see high temperatures above zero degrees celsius areas north of that will only see high temperatures in the low minus single digits around minus one to minus 3 degrees Celsius which is a sharp contrast from the day on Monday with our temperatures seeing values around 7 to about 12 degrees Celsius. During the hours in the evening there will be a temperature drop right after sunset from, our warm values to a colder air mass which will likely envelop the region for the next several days after this. 

Wednesday Night: Temperatures will drop from zero degrees Celsius and slightly below zero to the low to high minus single digits around the evening most will be seeing values between -1 to -8C, areas in the interlakes will be seeing the coldest around sunset with values around minus seven degrees celsius. Areas further south will still be cold with majority of the region seeing, A very cold Arctic air mass the difference in this situation is that there will be No snow on the ground which usually tends to amplify that cold air so even though that our values will be around minus 10 to minus 12 degrees in the morning hours there will be very little wind chill which will prevent it from feeling like December or January.

The second half of the week seasonal temperatures look to return which will help reduce the significant cold that we've experienced during Wednesday, I'm seeing a reprieve on Thursday with our high temperatures returning to the mid minus single digits. Very little precipitation is expected into the second half of the week with only a trace to two centimeters of snow possible if anything occurs, overnight lows on second half of the week will very be between the mid minus single digits to the mid minus teens .

 I do not expect the coldest of the weather until Wednesday.

Warm Weather persists, Montana low pressure system to make things interesting on Thursday

 All folks, it looks like Southern Manitoba is on track to experience another snowfall on Thursday nights to a Montana low pressure system, which will direct along the north Dakota amount of the border. This will not be a significant snowfall and the good news is is that warm temperatures will continue to persist behind this little precious system, and there is a possibility of seeing record high temperatures this coming week . We on to find out more about the weather ahead. 

Tonight: Southern Manitoba will be on the northern side of low pressure system, which will bring a small swath of snow through the southwest portion, into the interlakes. Overnight into Thursday morning. General 1-5cm can be expected. Majority of the snow should occur in the Interlake region into the Parkland. There is a small possibility that could travel further south over the red river valley . Overnight Lowe’s tonight should be in the low minus single digits generally minus one to -3°C with areas further east in the eastern part of Manitoba seeing Low’s around zero. 

Thursday: Snow will persist on Thursday with a swat going through the south Central part of the province during the late morning too early afternoon hours before clearing high temperatures, however, will linger on the freezing mark and be a lot cooler on Thursday than earlier in the week. Brief shot of arctic air will follow behind the front with windchill values closer to -5C. The coldest of the year will likely be in Interlakes areas. Further south will be fortunate enough to see highs above 0C. 

Thursday Night: behind the front cooler air will development of southern Manitoba with daytime highs dropping into the low minus single digits to minus single digits with windshield values around -10 for a majority of the region. Average low temperatures for Thursday night will be around the -3 to -5C mark. 

Friday: sunny to partly cloudy skies are likely on Friday with high temperatures in the mid single digits, which is about 10° above our normal For this time of year of -2. Another good day to get out and enjoy as high-pressure sits over the region. No significant weather is expected on Friday or the weekend. Friday night: Calm weather is likely with low temperatures in the mid minus single digits, 

The weekend: High temperature is on the weekend will be back in the mid high single digits with some areas seeing values around five to about 7°C. It will be difficult to figure out where the warmest of air will be but given that snow will melt, after the snowfall on Thursday there will likely be a significant change in temperatures from the end of the week. Also overnight, low temperatures will be above the freezing mark which will likely persist into the first part of the week. 

Wild winter weather, rain, snow freezing rain threat ends off the weekend. Mild Weather into next week.

 The Southern Manitoba will be experiencing another round of unsettled weather and one of the most interesting weather setups we have had within the last few months, a large area of low pressure will begin to impact parts of southwestern Manitoba by the early morning hours as it develops in Saskatchewan. This will likely bring a wintery mix to our region on Sunday with a risk of rain freezing rain and snow there is already several weather alerts issued for this system. This will be a more interesting weather update done in the last few months as I have a bit of enthusiasm as well I also want you to be aware that it could be a dangerous day for travel tomorrow afternoon read on to find out about this weekends weather blog.

Tonight: a warm front will begin to sweep from west to east across southern Manitoba with initial band of snow moving through overnight era hours followed by batch of freezing rain which will stall out over central Manitoba including the Interlakes and Red River Valley areas points west to Brandon by morning hours. Based on the current data I am seeing snow and freezing rain will start developing by about 12:00 AM to 3:00 AM in western Manitoba, About 5:00 AM to six AMA large swath of rain mixed with snow will be moving through the Interlakes and northern sections of the Red River Valley which will not include Winnipeg there is a possibility however of rain and ice mixing over the Red River Valley section by the morning majority of the ice and freezing rain will be to the west of Winnipeg. Overnight tonight low temperatures are likely to drop into the low minus single digits with areas west of Winnipeg, dropping and hovering around 0C. 

Sunday: A large swath of rain, freezing rain and snow will set up shop over southern manitoba, with areas north of the highway 1 at highest risk for snowfall amounts upwards of 5 to 10cm of snow.  As far north as the Thompson and Island Lake Regions, Temperatures will rise on the day Sunday in the south with our overall highs getting up to between one to 5 degrees celsius. A significant area of freezing rain is possible west and north of Winnipeg with highlighted areas from Swan River and dauphin SE through Lake Manitoba winnipeg on the edge of the highest amounts which will cover farmland regions from Portage La Prairie through Brunkild up to Steinbach sliding southwest of Winnipeg . Depending on the frontal position this band of freezing rain could shift E and if it does freezing rain warnings will likely be issued by environment Canada during the morning regardless I'm expecting that from Beausejour West to Brandon North to Dauphin can expect between one to five millimeters of freezing rain in the morning. During the afternoon more than likely rain will take over with large area from southwestern Manitoba into the Red River valley and eastern Manitoba likely expect to see between one to five millimeters of rain by the end of the day. Be aware that this could change as models have been all over the place the RA P HRRR the NAM have been showing different areas and timing precipitation so stay tuned for weather updates on Manitoba Weather centre. 

Sunday night: As the low sits over southern Manitoba a large swath of rain will sit over the area with majority of the freezing rain and snow off to the north in the Interlakes with areas north of Gimli and Winnipeg Beach seeing snow areas south of Winnipeg Beach and Gimli more than likely seeing freezing rain which will extend along a band west to east into the Bissett Nopiming regions and the

Dauphin and Swan River Parklands. As the evening progresses rain and rain at times heavy may persist over the southern border regions up to highway 75 and hwy 3 there's a possibility this may shift further north looking at the rain accumulations and given that temperatures will drop overnight there is a possibility of rain freezing which will put a risk and strain on power and power lines specifically areas south of highway 2 and Morden/Emerson regions. Roads will be icy as snow begins to transition from rain and freezing rain. Rainfall amounts of 10 to 15mm is likely. Read the Ice Index to the left to determine if your area is at risk of power outages, and what disruptions could occur as a result of rain freezing.

Total rainfall accumulations below in inches....

Monday: A calmer and cooler day is more than likely, What is concerning is that temperatures will drop for a large region of the South with areas that received rainfall during the day on Sunday will see overnight lows around zero to minus 2 degrees Celsius which will put a significant risk for roads and power lines to freeze on contact if there is any rain or moisture. High temperatures on Monday will only sit in the minus single digits with areas warmest in NW Ontario. Cloudy weather is more than likely for the rest of the day on Monday with cloudy skies and overnight low temperatures again Dropping into the mid minus single digits there is a high potential of wind chills around minus ten degrees Celsius on Monday night .

Warmer weather is likely again on Tuesday and Wednesday with high temperatures above zero and overnight lows a degree or two below zero, no significant weather is likely during the second half of the first part of the week. Also are normal temperature will begin dropping below zero this week, so with the El Nino running the show for the first few months of winter this weather will feel quite tropical compared to last year at this time. 

-Mike McGregor