Wild winter weather, rain, snow freezing rain threat ends off the weekend. Mild Weather into next week.

 The Southern Manitoba will be experiencing another round of unsettled weather and one of the most interesting weather setups we have had within the last few months, a large area of low pressure will begin to impact parts of southwestern Manitoba by the early morning hours as it develops in Saskatchewan. This will likely bring a wintery mix to our region on Sunday with a risk of rain freezing rain and snow there is already several weather alerts issued for this system. This will be a more interesting weather update done in the last few months as I have a bit of enthusiasm as well I also want you to be aware that it could be a dangerous day for travel tomorrow afternoon read on to find out about this weekends weather blog.

Tonight: a warm front will begin to sweep from west to east across southern Manitoba with initial band of snow moving through overnight era hours followed by batch of freezing rain which will stall out over central Manitoba including the Interlakes and Red River Valley areas points west to Brandon by morning hours. Based on the current data I am seeing snow and freezing rain will start developing by about 12:00 AM to 3:00 AM in western Manitoba, About 5:00 AM to six AMA large swath of rain mixed with snow will be moving through the Interlakes and northern sections of the Red River Valley which will not include Winnipeg there is a possibility however of rain and ice mixing over the Red River Valley section by the morning majority of the ice and freezing rain will be to the west of Winnipeg. Overnight tonight low temperatures are likely to drop into the low minus single digits with areas west of Winnipeg, dropping and hovering around 0C. 

Sunday: A large swath of rain, freezing rain and snow will set up shop over southern manitoba, with areas north of the highway 1 at highest risk for snowfall amounts upwards of 5 to 10cm of snow.  As far north as the Thompson and Island Lake Regions, Temperatures will rise on the day Sunday in the south with our overall highs getting up to between one to 5 degrees celsius. A significant area of freezing rain is possible west and north of Winnipeg with highlighted areas from Swan River and dauphin SE through Lake Manitoba winnipeg on the edge of the highest amounts which will cover farmland regions from Portage La Prairie through Brunkild up to Steinbach sliding southwest of Winnipeg . Depending on the frontal position this band of freezing rain could shift E and if it does freezing rain warnings will likely be issued by environment Canada during the morning regardless I'm expecting that from Beausejour West to Brandon North to Dauphin can expect between one to five millimeters of freezing rain in the morning. During the afternoon more than likely rain will take over with large area from southwestern Manitoba into the Red River valley and eastern Manitoba likely expect to see between one to five millimeters of rain by the end of the day. Be aware that this could change as models have been all over the place the RA P HRRR the NAM have been showing different areas and timing precipitation so stay tuned for weather updates on Manitoba Weather centre. 

Sunday night: As the low sits over southern Manitoba a large swath of rain will sit over the area with majority of the freezing rain and snow off to the north in the Interlakes with areas north of Gimli and Winnipeg Beach seeing snow areas south of Winnipeg Beach and Gimli more than likely seeing freezing rain which will extend along a band west to east into the Bissett Nopiming regions and the

Dauphin and Swan River Parklands. As the evening progresses rain and rain at times heavy may persist over the southern border regions up to highway 75 and hwy 3 there's a possibility this may shift further north looking at the rain accumulations and given that temperatures will drop overnight there is a possibility of rain freezing which will put a risk and strain on power and power lines specifically areas south of highway 2 and Morden/Emerson regions. Roads will be icy as snow begins to transition from rain and freezing rain. Rainfall amounts of 10 to 15mm is likely. Read the Ice Index to the left to determine if your area is at risk of power outages, and what disruptions could occur as a result of rain freezing.

Total rainfall accumulations below in inches....

Monday: A calmer and cooler day is more than likely, What is concerning is that temperatures will drop for a large region of the South with areas that received rainfall during the day on Sunday will see overnight lows around zero to minus 2 degrees Celsius which will put a significant risk for roads and power lines to freeze on contact if there is any rain or moisture. High temperatures on Monday will only sit in the minus single digits with areas warmest in NW Ontario. Cloudy weather is more than likely for the rest of the day on Monday with cloudy skies and overnight low temperatures again Dropping into the mid minus single digits there is a high potential of wind chills around minus ten degrees Celsius on Monday night .

Warmer weather is likely again on Tuesday and Wednesday with high temperatures above zero and overnight lows a degree or two below zero, no significant weather is likely during the second half of the first part of the week. Also are normal temperature will begin dropping below zero this week, so with the El Nino running the show for the first few months of winter this weather will feel quite tropical compared to last year at this time. 

-Mike McGregor