Severe Weather Threat Returns to southern Manitoba. Weak Tornado threat Possible .

 Hello, what is up everybody? I have a forecast update and this one is going to be short and brief. We do have some severe weather on the way for southern Manitoba and a region, which will not only bring well needed rain for the wildfire situation, but it will also help Reduce our overall drought situation. Tomorrow expect temperatures across southern Manitoba will rise into the 20s. There will likely be increasing humidity out ahead of the area of low pressure off to our south. The day may start off with occasional rounds of showers and thunderstorms north of the main area of low pressure. If that happens temperatures may have a hard time reaching there day time highs clearing can be expected during the latter half of the afternoon. If we avoid the initial round of showers and thunderstorms, some of the Weather models are suggesting that areas of southeastern Manitoba may rise into the upper twenties and possibly low 30s where as the southwest will see highs in the teens, This is all dependent on initial convection. Regardless of whether this happens later in the day with the low pressure system moving into our region, there will be increasing upper level support for shear as well as instability we’re looking at CAPE from 1,000 to 1,500J/Kg and EHI of 1 to 5. This will not only increase the severe Weather potential, but there will be a higher likelihood that a couple of spin ups (tornado threat is possible in these areas)  could happen in areas of the red river valley and just along highway 1 east of Portage La Prairie with Winnipeg included in this risk map. See photo below for a look at one of the SKEW T Graphs near the YWG area. Expect multiple rounds of convection to develop later today before clearing around midnight. Rainfall totals could exceed 50mm in some areas, 

Temperatures behind the system will cool off into the teens during the overnight timeframe. The system will move off to the east behind bringing a cooler air mass with overnight low temperatures in the single digits in the southwest and low teens in the east . Also, there will be initial rounds of showers and thunderstorms during the late evening and early overnight timeframe, which may persist into the day on Friday. 

Heat, slight Humidity and Thunderstorms Arriving for the weekend.

Hey what's up everybody I'm sorry that I've been away for so long writing our blogs I just wanted to let you know that we have interesting weather weekend ahead as well into our week ahead, weatherwise. It looks like we are going to be going into a rough weekend and week with heat, and humidity. A rex block will be moving into this part of the country what this means is there will be a cut off low over the southern united states, creating what we call a look like a T Rex with the upper jetstream. Photo Courtesy of:  Meteorologist Eric Snitil: Facebook

Along this area of high pressure on the north end over southern Manitoba, a area of low pressure systems will be moving into the northern plains as aided by a pacific jetstream. This area will be the focal point for oppurtunities for severe weather this weekend into early next week, as I write this at 347PM there has now been a heat warning issued for southern Manitoba thanks to this massive ridge building over the southern prairie provinces. If you want to find out more what this means to our upper weather pattern read on below. 

This Afternoon and Evening: As I am writing this article we have thunderstorms over the interlake region from Eriksdale to Gull Lake and the Victoria Beach regions. These showers and weak thunderstorms will likely persist into this evening. There is a chance that there may be additional thunderstorms developing towards the dinner hour based on the latest NAM model, iniation may happen along the warm front as it hits a pocket of slightly unstable air. These thunderstorms will not be severe thankfully. We should be around 24C this evening, before the sun sets. Temperatures during the overnight timeframe will drop into the mid to upper teens, with areas of the interlakes remaining cooler than that, with lows in the 8-10C range. 

Tomorrow: Southern Manitoba get ready to bake, not home bake things. I mean bake in the heat, but you guys wont cook, literally. It will just be hot enough that you might be able to leave cookies in your car and they might be done at the end of the day. Just dont be trying to cook bacon or eggs. Anyways getting back to being on the serious note here, a low pressure system will be sitting just west of Manitoba, ahead of it a narrow area of instability will set up along the warm front with it sitting west to east along and south of highway 1 and 2 moving north through the day. There will be a strong cap along this boundary making it incredibly hard to break, if any storms fire they very well could be severe with hail, and strong wind gusts and the potential for lightning which may spark additional fires as it has been incredibly dry. Temperatures will crack the 30C mark across southern Manitoba with high temperatures in the mid 30's are likely, despite the NAM only saying 27C for Winnipeg. 

Tomorrow Night: Any threat for thunderstorms may persist into the evening time frame, the best chances for the storms appear to be in the southwest part of Manitoba, based on the latest RAP model they will spread into the interlakes and the central part of Manitoba where less capping may be present. The risk for thunderstorms will end by the midnight hour. Temperatures will drop into the upper teens for most. 

The Week Ahead: This is where our weather gets the most intense, temperatures will hit a peak with values hitting the mid to upper 30's for a majority of our region. The low pressure system which sat stalled off to our west in saskatchewan will begin moving into our region bringing with it unsettled weather, on Monday the risk for severe thunderstorms will present itself in SW MB into west central MB up to Swan River with the threat that some of these may move into the eastern parts of Manitoba during the overnight timeframe including the interlakes. Overnight temperatures will only drop into the 20's and high teens, unusual for this time of year and we might break some record low temperatures as well. More unsettled weather with more rain and or severe thunderstorms is likely as we approach the second half of the week. 

I will have another blog on Monday Evening. :-)