Severe Weather Threat Returns to southern Manitoba. Weak Tornado threat Possible .

 Hello, what is up everybody? I have a forecast update and this one is going to be short and brief. We do have some severe weather on the way for southern Manitoba and a region, which will not only bring well needed rain for the wildfire situation, but it will also help Reduce our overall drought situation. Tomorrow expect temperatures across southern Manitoba will rise into the 20s. There will likely be increasing humidity out ahead of the area of low pressure off to our south. The day may start off with occasional rounds of showers and thunderstorms north of the main area of low pressure. If that happens temperatures may have a hard time reaching there day time highs clearing can be expected during the latter half of the afternoon. If we avoid the initial round of showers and thunderstorms, some of the Weather models are suggesting that areas of southeastern Manitoba may rise into the upper twenties and possibly low 30s where as the southwest will see highs in the teens, This is all dependent on initial convection. Regardless of whether this happens later in the day with the low pressure system moving into our region, there will be increasing upper level support for shear as well as instability we’re looking at CAPE from 1,000 to 1,500J/Kg and EHI of 1 to 5. This will not only increase the severe Weather potential, but there will be a higher likelihood that a couple of spin ups (tornado threat is possible in these areas)  could happen in areas of the red river valley and just along highway 1 east of Portage La Prairie with Winnipeg included in this risk map. See photo below for a look at one of the SKEW T Graphs near the YWG area. Expect multiple rounds of convection to develop later today before clearing around midnight. Rainfall totals could exceed 50mm in some areas, 

Temperatures behind the system will cool off into the teens during the overnight timeframe. The system will move off to the east behind bringing a cooler air mass with overnight low temperatures in the single digits in the southwest and low teens in the east . Also, there will be initial rounds of showers and thunderstorms during the late evening and early overnight timeframe, which may persist into the day on Friday.