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| 3km HRRR Radar Image (6am Sunday) |
After a rainy start to the weekend will be seeing much of the same for the rest of the weekend only if an area of high pressure doesn't interfere with the push of this low pressure system we are currently experiencing. Throughout the rest of the night tonight expect any rain to clear out with the possibility of more showers & thunderstorms entering southern parts of the province overnight into tomorrow morning. The question is how far North will this rain move? Current indications are that the area of high pressure will keep the rains out of the province, and only let it slide a little north of the border likely affecting areas along a line from Sprague to Pilot Mound mainly south of the TransCanada. Leaving sunny skies for our day tomorrow in the rest of the South Though if that area of high pressure weakens we could be left dealing with a potentially rainy and stormy Sunday because the low itself is much stronger. I have seen a lot forecasts online that quote rains and storms for the day Sunday, we'll have to find out I guess. As we go into Sunday night things will either be clear or we could be dealing with rainshowers as the area of low pressure or high pressure sits near the region. Monday is when we could be seeing more rainfall and or thunderstorms or just plain sunny skies, but if we do get rainfall on Monday things will likely clear out in the evening.
Then we are into much sunnier condition's before another potential of showers and storms comes at the end of the week given latest model runs. So there you have it there is a lot of uncertainity in the latest model
runs so I will update in the comments section if needed. Follow the
HRRR for latest data and radar simulation's.
In the Long Range an enhanced risk for above normal temperatures and precipitation returns for the region, means that there there will be a higher chance for severe weather/thunderstorms in the coming weeks. That might get me posting more often, we'll see how it turns out!
In the Long Range an enhanced risk for above normal temperatures and precipitation returns for the region, means that there there will be a higher chance for severe weather/thunderstorms in the coming weeks. That might get me posting more often, we'll see how it turns out!
I was right all general short range models are hinting that most of the rainfall will fall north of the border given weakening of high pressure. In this scenario this will bring the chance for showers and weak embedded thunderstorms into southern manitoba, winnipeg has a chance as well. General amounts will be in the 15mm range 7 could be higher in thunderstorms. I created a forecast for Winnipeg, the thunderstorms may or may not occur but there could be some in places. I'm going to beausejour so hopefully I'll get a storm...
ReplyDeleteHere is what could be expected tomorrow morning.... http://www.flightplanning.navcanada.ca/Latest/gfa/anglais/produits/uprair/gfa/gfacn32/Latest-gfacn32_cldwx_012.png
correction my last comment said 7 could be higher in thunderstorms I meant and could be higher...
ReplyDeleteRainfall warnings have been issued for the southeast regions of the province, expect 50 to 80mm of rain for the areas as another band of rain moves into the region. Rain will continue for the rest of the south with amounts below the 50mm range. Rainfall will continue to affect southern manitoba and won't clear out until tuesday night. I can tell you that we will see varying amounts with the highest through Southeast MB & areas along the border with much less further northwards.
ReplyDeleteWe are in for another rainy day today with another average of 10 to 25mm of rain possible for most but Rainfall warnings continue for areas of Southeastern Manitoba and West to Pilot Mound with another 25 to 50mm expected. When all is said and done 80mm will be possible. Wind will also be a fairly big factor. I`ll talk about it in the latest post. Let me know how the weather is in your region, send me a comment. A blog update will be on the way shortly. Here`s a current look at the radar through the region....
ReplyDeletehttp://s11.postimg.org/jazvb3ear/rainfall.png
http://imgh.us/rainfall.png
ReplyDeleteNice blog Mike!
ReplyDeleteThank's Willy!
ReplyDelete